ICM consideration and can I get away?

nickkay

3 left in the £300 BH just now. I’m second 55k, villain 75k and short stack 27k, blinds 800/1600.

Villain min raises, I call with 57 spades.

Flop 10 4 6 rainbow, one spade.

Villain half pots, I call. Turn 9 spades. Villain now checks. I half pot which he then snap shoves. I’ve still 28k left, but make the call. Gut shot and flush draw, is this the right call? I blank the river but feel I maybe could have got away. Thoughts?

ShaunyT

excuse my typ1ng my keyb0ard 1s knackered.

Are y0u BB 0r n0t? D0nt m1nd the call pre 1f s0.
Assum1ng the p0t 1s ar0und 13-15k 1 th1nk h0w 1ts p1ayed 1 w0uld have f0lded y0ure ab0ut 35perc t w1n, 0r e1ther ra1se/sh0ve 0ver the v1LL1ans fl0p bet

NOSTRI

It's not possible to do a proper ICM calculation on this without:

• Player positions
  
• Payout structures
  
• Player bounties
  

Don't think it's necessary though, you're in terrible shape here. He's got all the sets, all the overpairs, some two pairs, one made straight (87s) that you're chopping with at best. Maybe top pair? Maybe nut flush draws? Maybe worse flush draws that still beat you? You're behind even his worst draws unimproved, losing to his flush draws, chopping or losing (QJ) to his straight draws.

With ICM and you having a stack that can cripple him, villain isn't incentivized to take this line with marginal draws, he should almost always have a strong made hand. He should also have a lot of fold equity if you're using your head since you have a short stack on the table, so weaker holdings are feasible, but I can't see him doing it with much you're in good shape against.

Easy fold IMO.

I think you could just fold this preflop. I'm no ICM expert but I think you need to be pretty tight when there's a short stack and sticking to hands that can flop a strong hand. Not the time to be chasing weak draws.

Agree with the above that ra1se 0ver the v1LL1ans fl0p bet is worth considering but be looking to give up if he calls and you miss the turn.

madprof

Eeek...I’m loose but even I would fold that pre

Tedson

If you're the middling stack in this situation, you typically want to play much more passively than normal against the big stack. They're incentivised to play very aggresively against us, so we should be calling and checking a lot more often with both made hands and draws that you might normally raise. This way we protect our range with strong hands, allow villain to hang themselves and don't get blown off our good draws.

So here I would normally call pre (our hand is plenty strong enough v min raise IP), flat flop and check back turn. If he checks river he's usually going to be pretty weak and we can still credibly rep plenty of value hands.

All that being said, I don't think ICM is quite as important in BHs compared to regular tournaments. 1st place is often worth double 2nd place, with all the extra bounty money. So I'm usually playing for the win. I'd still play the 75s the same way though, to avoid giving villain an easy check jam and making our life miserable

Essexphil

Tedson said:

If you're the middling stack in this situation, you typically want to play much more passively than normal against the big stack. They're incentivised to play very aggresively against us, so we should be calling and checking a lot more often with both made hands and draws that you might normally raise. This way we protect our range with strong hands, allow villain to hang themselves and don't get blown off our good draws.

So here I would normally call pre (our hand is plenty strong enough v min raise IP), flat flop and check back turn. If he checks river he's usually going to be pretty weak and we can still credibly rep plenty of value hands.

All that being said, I don't think ICM is quite as important in BHs compared to regular tournaments. 1st place is often worth double 2nd place, with all the extra bounty money. So I'm usually playing for the win. I'd still play the 75s the same way though, to avoid giving villain an easy check jam and making our life miserable

Completely agree with this.

The only thing i would add is that, having made that (rather unwise) bet on the turn, feel you have little option but to sigh-call the shove. It is 28k to win 110k...

Jacquelyn

you should have just checked the turn?

Essexphil

Jacquelyn said:

you should have just checked the turn?

If (and only if) you intend to fold to a shove...