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Pot odds
Katka
Member Posts: 38
in Poker Chat
Good evening community ,
As i started recently to take the game more seriously than gambling i have few questions regarding pot odds calculations.
1st of all is the rule (outs * 2) for one card and (outs * 4 ) for turn and river together correct?
I am reading "the professional's guide and the easiest way of calculation is impossible to be applied in online gaming as the time is too short.
the example he use is the odds with two cards to come for a middle card needed for straight (4 outs) and describes the calculation of cards for the turn (47) and the river (46) and dividing by 2 : 47*46/2 = 1081
Then to finish with the question makes the final calculation (1081 - 178 = 903 ) to finish with odds of making straight by the river 903:178 or 20 %
With the *4 rule the percentage would be 4outs * 4= 16% to come straight.
Which one should i follow and how is possible to follow the complicated one ?
Thank you
As i started recently to take the game more seriously than gambling i have few questions regarding pot odds calculations.
1st of all is the rule (outs * 2) for one card and (outs * 4 ) for turn and river together correct?
I am reading "the professional's guide and the easiest way of calculation is impossible to be applied in online gaming as the time is too short.
the example he use is the odds with two cards to come for a middle card needed for straight (4 outs) and describes the calculation of cards for the turn (47) and the river (46) and dividing by 2 : 47*46/2 = 1081
Then to finish with the question makes the final calculation (1081 - 178 = 903 ) to finish with odds of making straight by the river 903:178 or 20 %
With the *4 rule the percentage would be 4outs * 4= 16% to come straight.
Which one should i follow and how is possible to follow the complicated one ?
Thank you
Comments
The question I would ask about the long form is, how valuable is it to be able to do these calcs in terms of time spent in studies ? IMHO time is better spent looking ranges, bet sizes on different board textures etc.
Personally I have never delved into the long form so I can't answer the 2nd part of the Q
@Katka
Easiest & by far the quickest & simplest is to use the rules of 4 on the Flop.
Count your outs after the flop, & simply multiply them by 4. So, if you are drawing to the flush, there are 2 on the flop & 2 in your hand, you have 9 outs. Multiply 9 x 4 & the answer is the percentage to hit, in this case 36%.
On the Turn, simply make it the rule of 2. 9 outs x 2 = 18% to hit.
With (say) an open-ended straight draw, that's 8 outs after the flop, so 8 x 4 = 32%, & so on.
I think though that we have to caution ourselves that many of our outs my not be clean.
Never been beaten.
If you have a flush draw on the flop, the probability of hitting your flush is (9/47 + (38/47 * 9/46)), so you'll hit around 34.9% of the time.
For an open-ended straight draw, it's 8/47 + (39/47 * 8/46), so you'll hit around 31.5% of the time.
Flush draw on the turn means you hit 9/46 = ~19.6% of the time.
The rule of 2/4 estimates the flush and straight draws at 36% and 32% respectively, and rivering a flush at 18% which isn't a mile off. So it's not 'correct', but it's good enough for what you'll use it for in most cases.
One thing that's overlooked with the rule of 2 and 4 is backdoor flush draws - You'll hit just a backdoor flush just over 4% of the time, which can be significant. Just count it as an extra out on the flop.
However, the reason I don't like it is that it doesn't take other things into account:
- Does hitting your draw mean you have the best hand or gives your opponent a redraw (this is the biggest drawback!)
- Do you have showdown value (because it's assuming you're behind always)
- Will your opponent will actually let you realise your equity
- Are there any (reverse) implied odds when you hit your draw?
- Is your opponent just c-betting the flop with the intention of betting once and giving up a lot of the time? In which case, you're winning the pot when checked to on the turn
- Probably some other stuff.
Tbh, it won't take too long until you get As6s on 8s5s2d and you won't need to work anything out, you'll just know "I have enough equity here to call in position or raise as a semi-bluff".
If you want to get to that point a bit quicker, IMO the best thing to do is get yourself a free equity calculator (I like Equilab but try several, find one you like). Play about with it, put some hands in from the day before, and you'll soon develop a feel for how much equity you have in various spots, including pre-flop. From there, you can start to play around with ranges etc.
thanks for this , i will check the equity calculator for sure ,
i am still trying to understand how the pro's are using the first and most accurate way even if it seems quite impossible to do such a good maths fast during playing such a high amount of money.
For online gaming with 15sec in our time i believe the thinking process goes closer to old school poker where instinct plays a big part.
If your intrested in an easier way, I can show you.
The 2/4 is a useful guide.
You may find this useful for greater accuracy on specific boards.
Let me know if you need more info on how to use it.
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem
If you have the time anytime please.
@StayOrGo
I will play with that a bit and i will let you know,
thanks a lot lads