Interesting river spot in the Sheriff

fishhhhh

Interesting spot IMO, would you call or fold?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
scotty77	Small blind		250.00	250.00	9497.00
Beanie87	Big blind		500.00	750.00	25951.25
	Your hole cards	10 K
fishhhhh	Raise		1000.00	1750.00	12674.00
Petedrill	Fold
mrtee	Call		1000.00	2750.00	11903.75
scotty77	Fold
Beanie87	Call		500.00	3250.00	25451.25
Flop
		A 7 9
Beanie87	Check
fishhhhh	Check
mrtee	Check
Turn
		8
Beanie87	Check
fishhhhh	Check
mrtee	Check
River
		J
Beanie87	Check
fishhhhh	Bet		1750.00	5000.00	10924.00
mrtee	All-in		11903.75	16903.75	0.00

tonyp142

So initially I thought it was a snap call but then thought that most of his tens would probably not get to river this way.

He doesn't have AT as he bets the flop and maybe shoves pre. JT - he always bets turn.

KT - 9 combos left. (May bet KTcc on turn sometimes)
QT - 12 combos left. (But should be more likely to bluff a few of these before river).

We could give him the odd TT that he didn't raise pre and the occasional T9s.

Seems like you are splitting the pot vs about half his combos but losing against the rest.

Interesting hand - probably one I instant click call at the time and just treat as a cooler when i get shown QT - but I think it is a fold.

percival09

Assuming he’s jamming any Tx it’s a call without ICM considerations. It’s plausible that they have Q10 but a chunk of those combinations should be betting an earlier street, although it’s likely ok to check 2 streets in this spot too. I’d call and expect to chop but not delighted. I imagine we should also bet smaller on the river, like 1/3rd pot - we’re likely never getting called by worse with this sizing. Like anything it depends on many things, for example if he calls off suit broadways OTB here, he shouldn’t but he might. I wouldn’t hate you for folding, I think it’s a call and expect to see a pair with straight combination often

fishhhhh

I did end up folding. As you say tonyp I think a lot of T he has, also have a pair which could reasonably bet when checked to on the turn. Maybe you just can't fold a T (otherwise you're only calling with QT), but at the same token I don't think I'd bet anything else for value on the river and readless, I think villain shoves with at least a T (maybe a very slim chance of a bluff with a Q in his hand, although very unlikely), meaning it needs to not be QT 80% of time to be a profitable call.