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Hand analysis - bad beat in 18.30 BH today
kinematic
Member Posts: 28
Hi all
I wanted to share the following with you, to get your feedback and comments. We all suffer badbeats, its part of the variance. It hurts more when its for your tourney and that seems to be happening way too often to me of late. I get my lucky breaks too so not moaning, just that this ranks right up there for me as one of the worst, perhaps because I was so surprised to see what the Villain was holding. Anyway, I would like to hear your comments ref my play, pre-flop and flop. Think I did the right thing on the turn making any flush draw pay to see the river, but wasnt expecting those 2 cards!!
I wanted to share the following with you, to get your feedback and comments. We all suffer badbeats, its part of the variance. It hurts more when its for your tourney and that seems to be happening way too often to me of late. I get my lucky breaks too so not moaning, just that this ranks right up there for me as one of the worst, perhaps because I was so surprised to see what the Villain was holding. Anyway, I would like to hear your comments ref my play, pre-flop and flop. Think I did the right thing on the turn making any flush draw pay to see the river, but wasnt expecting those 2 cards!!
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVGENIA | Small blind | 15.00 | 15.00 | 1990.00 | |
| wilsonho34 | Big blind | 30.00 | 45.00 | 3257.50 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Arrogant | Raise | 90.00 | 135.00 | 4260.00 | |
| timeforbed | Fold | ||||
| kinematic | Call | 90.00 | 225.00 | 1595.00 | |
| Monkton777 | Call | 90.00 | 315.00 | 1910.00 | |
| EVGENIA | Fold | ||||
| wilsonho34 | Call | 60.00 | 375.00 | 3197.50 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| wilsonho34 | Check | ||||
| Arrogant | Check | ||||
| kinematic | Check | ||||
| Monkton777 | Bet | 281.25 | 656.25 | 1628.75 | |
| wilsonho34 | Fold | ||||
| Arrogant | Fold | ||||
| kinematic | Call | 281.25 | 937.50 | 1313.75 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| kinematic | All-in | 1313.75 | 2251.25 | 0.00 | |
| Monkton777 | Call | 1313.75 | 3565.00 | 315.00 | |
| kinematic | Show |
| |||
| Monkton777 | Show |
| |||
| River | |||||
| |||||
| Monkton777 | Win | Flush to the Ace | 3565.00 | 3880.00 | |
Comments
You know you played it fine, you say you are not moaning yet here you are looking for sympathy.
Pre-flop seems okay, good hand to see a flop with in the early stages.
Flop is also seems fine, albeit villain betting 3/4 pot isn't ideal when we want to see a turn card cheaply.
I don't understand why we've opted to lead the turn and shove for over pot-size though. What was your thinking behind this? What hands in our range is the Ace going to benefit here? Q 10 is pretty much it really, and that probably doesn't want to lead this spot, especially for this sizing.
Don't worry about what your opponent had, all should be focusing on is if we've played the hand correctly. You know what the micro-stakes games on here are like - people love a flop and are glued to any two cards of the same colour.
bet 1/4 pot or check?
then jam if they bet?
and if they call or check behind are you check folding the heart river, or check calling?
i like the way @kinematic played here, playing softer invites those river beats, fold baddie fold!! haHA
@kinematic
Let's look at the numbers.
Pre-flop you were 64%/36% to win
After the Flop you were 80%/20% to win
After the Turn you were still 80%/20% to win.
So I'd say villains calls were super optimistic, & you WANT him to make those calls all day. If the spot came up again, I'd play it identically.
We can never be in bad shape if we get our money in that good, as 64/36 & 80/20 favourites. Keep doing it.
Why did villain call? Suited connectors are like crack cocaine, cigarettes or alcohol - they are very addictive, many of us are addicted & can't throw them away.
If they do bet big again, then they are probably going be pot committed and I would be happy to go all in for the rest of our chips.
If turn goes check-check, am probably betting river with a straight, and then being sad when villain puts us all in with their flush.
That would probably be the way I'd play it. Someone better may have have a different opinion.
As an example, if you have continuation bet 10 times in a row, checking screams nothing or the nuts. Whereas a player with a more balanced range can (very) profitably check raise here.
The bottom line is, for whatever reason, the OP managed to get all his chips in while a massive favourite. So-leaving to 1 side any theoretical options, the play had to be optimal against this particular opponent.
If @kinematic had notes on the villain here and firmly believed he has a flush draw, then fair enough. But a lot of the time, villain won't have a flush draw here. For a start, not many people are going to bet 3/4 pot on the flop into 3 other people with a backdoor flush door. The majority of people would also fold a flush draw on the turn when shoved on.
If I'm villain and I'm facing a lead-shove on the turn for nearly 1.5x pot, I'm likely folding 2 pair and worse. And if by leading out with the turned nuts here we fold out a hand like KJ, then it's an absolute disaster.
Given me lots to consider and I will think about this the next time I am in a similar position, especially with my turn/river play. Could have lost the hand but stayed in the tourney. He didnt raise pre-flop so I didnt have him on a big pocket pair. I didnt have him on a flush draw either, his flop bet made me think he had Kx or even Jx. My turn bet was to make it mega expensive (all but 300 chips behind for him) should he happen to have a flush draw. If he had turned over two high hearts then I would have just dealt with it better as at least having two high cards made sense for his post flop play, whereas 32 of hearts didnt.
Having had some time to reflect on this hand I do also think I was too passive on the flop, been working on my betting strategies lately with open ended draws and should have lead out (although hindsight is a wonderful thing). Clearly this would have given me the chance to take the pot earlier, as would a check-raise on the flop. I know in the end if the villain stayed in the hand regardless of my play flop-turn-river the outcome was going to be the same, but being more aggressive on the flop might have got him out of there, albeit with me picking up less chips.
Anyway, really appreciate you guy taking the time to provide feedback.
Dave
I take a small stab on the flop, setting a small price for my draw, while being happy to get folds from Ax and underpairs and having decent equity when called. There are also some run outs we can bluff. As played, call is OK IMO.
Turn needs a rethink. Our line folds out the hands we want calls from and prevents villain from bluffing. Villain shouldn't really have any flush draws unless they come with a pair. A competent player can fold that versus your sizing. All of that is to say I prefer check jam or check call.