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£22 dym bubble

Jac35Jac35 Member Posts: 6,495
edited December 2021 in Strategy
I haven’t got the hand but stacks are approx

Crazy button limps at 100/200
He’s acquired his 7k stack from limp calling shoves with hands like 96 and K2

We have 1110 chips in the sb and AKcc
We make it 1100

Bb now shoves 1400 and the button snaps

What do we do?
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Comments

  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 9,255
    BB looks super-strong.

    We are probably only about 40% to win here.
    Problem is-the BB is probably 70%-plus to win if we fold, and we will then be in the BB with 10 chips, with next to no chance..

    Reluctant call.
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  • EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    Yeah I agree with Phil. Sh*tty spot but think we have to call off the last 10 chips.
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  • JacquelynJacquelyn Member Posts: 254
    Am I right in saying that by leaving 10 behind here, you are making the big blind give you the choice of folding?

    You know me, but I would be getting it all in pre flop here and what will be, will be.

    GL at the tables my friend.
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  • CammykazeCammykaze Member Posts: 1,397
    edited May 2020
    Call, not happy of course.
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited May 2020
    Well I assume "you" held back 10 chips for this situation so fold

    Or if it was a misclick call
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  • Jac35Jac35 Member Posts: 6,495
    edited May 2020
    I often do the non all in, all in. When on a short stack I do this as a multitabling reg might not notice and assume I have more back. Also for situations like this.
    I must admit on this occasion I was never ever expecting the bb to shove.

    When the button snaps I’m lost as to which option is best

    My thinking at the time is that I now need the best hand of 3 when all 5 cards are dealt. I decided to take my chances on the big stack winning.

    I’d like to know the % chance if me winning it 3 way v the % chance of me folding and winning the dym

    I lose the game either way as it turned out.
    If I’d called, I’d have lost
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  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,735
    Think we can give crazy button man a really wide range here he can call with anything he's messing about with and be pretty confident he's going to cash.

    If we give BB a tight range of QQ+ and AKs we are about 30% to win against both.

    If we move out of the way those ranges mean we'd win the DYM 24% of the time. If we take AKs out of that tight range we cash only 20% of the time at this point by folding.

    So to make the fold correct I think we need to be cashing a few % of the time when the tight range holds and play continues. Think with 10 chips behind we don't have enough.

    The equities are close anyway - you won’t destroy your ROI by being suboptimal in this very rare spot!

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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    Jac35 said:

    I often do the non all in, all in. When on a short stack I do this as a multitabling reg might not notice and assume I have more back. Also for situations like this.
    I must admit on this occasion I was never ever expecting the bb to shove.

    When the button snaps I’m lost as to which option is best

    My thinking at the time is that I now need the best hand of 3 when all 5 cards are dealt. I decided to take my chances on the big stack winning.

    I’d like to know the % chance if me winning it 3 way v the % chance of me folding and winning the dym

    I lose the game either way as it turned out.
    If I’d called, I’d have lost

    Had a quick go at this:

    Options:
    Fold, Btn wins pot £EV =20
    Fold BB wins pot. Accordind to 1st ICM calculator I googled your £EV =0.11

    Call, Lose €EV=0
    Call Win, Btn wins side pot £EV=20
    Call Win, BB wins side pot, ICM calculator says £EV=18.24

    Im going to assume BB has 70% equity v btn, both if we fold and if we call aand win main pot (change the 0.7 and 0.3 figures if want to play around with different equities)

    £EV folding (0.3 X 20 +0.7 X0.11)=£6.08

    Let x= equity when called

    £EV calling x(0.3 X 20+ 0.7 X 18.24)=18.77x

    Required equity to make calling = folding
    18.77x=6.08
    x=.32= 32%

    So according to my calc you require more than 32% to make calling> folding. This will change based on equity you estimate btn has v bb

    Prob mistakes in this and other factors may play in to it. Know very little about ICM or its limitations. Please point out mistakes in my calcs my inner nerd would be interested in fixing them




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