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Call or fold
LARSON7
Member Posts: 4,491
in Poker Chat
gr0wapear Small blind 10000.00 10000.00 101822.37
LARSON7 Big blind 20000.00 30000.00 70629.50
Your hole cards
2
9
hj11 Fold
fastfood Fold
gr0wapear All-in
Quite an unusual situation to have so few bb's, it's the last 4 of the nightly freeroll, has descended into a bit of a crapshoot.
It's an interesting spot if we need to call with any two here, I'm not to sure.
In game I folded the 92 os, possibly just to junky to call, but interesting.
Hiji has 250k
Fastfood has all the chips, or 800k
LARSON7 Big blind 20000.00 30000.00 70629.50
Your hole cards
2
9
hj11 Fold
fastfood Fold
gr0wapear All-in
Quite an unusual situation to have so few bb's, it's the last 4 of the nightly freeroll, has descended into a bit of a crapshoot.
It's an interesting spot if we need to call with any two here, I'm not to sure.
In game I folded the 92 os, possibly just to junky to call, but interesting.
Hiji has 250k
Fastfood has all the chips, or 800k
Comments
Only a fold if there is a shorter stack than you with their blinds coming up, and pay jump between 3rd and 4th is big.
Did you manage a ladder, or win even?
Basically he's shoving most of his range and you have to put 3.5BB's in to win 5.5BB's. So you need 3.5/(5.5+3.5) = 3.5/9 = 38.88% in a chip ev situation, but significantly less in an ICM situation, if you are the short-stack.
If he shoves 80% of his range, 92 has 36.67% equity, see attached simulation against an 80% range shove.
So it's an ICM call if the shorty and an ICM fold if there is a shorter stack than you. If it was a cash game, it's a fold unless anties.
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
G
The only argument for calling is that if there's one person you want to double through, this is the guy. If you win you are going to ladder very often.
Good to see your differing opinion.
Certainly not a nash call in cash as I eluded to, in a straight "chip ev" situation, I agree, he hasn't got the pot odds. However, I feel it is an ICM call in this spot, for the reasons I said and that you say. (Wanting to double through the other shorty)
Although I have to confess I miss-read gr0wapear's stack (thought it was 1MIL not 100K) but still think it's a call whether gr0wapear has 1 million or 100K. As gr0wapear being big or short amasses to the same sort of ICM scenario. Ie @LARSON7 looks booked for 4th if he folds.
Unless gr0apear had a history of giving the BB a walk a lot, then I think it is a call.
If Kev folds he looks booked for 4th place unless gr0wapear makes a bad ICM call down the line.
I hope I am wrong and Kev @LARSON7 managed to spin it up and win!
I think I know what number one son, Gary (Limp2Lose) would say; "Coin toss Dad" so it is probably closer than my initial thoughts.
But I still favour the call unless you think your opponents will make bad calls/shoves within the next few hands, cos lets face it, Kev folds, what's he got? One more orbit, so four hands, before they have to go in with zero fold equity.
If gr0apear only shoves 50% of his range here then 92 has 32.5% equity. A bit more marginal, I agree, but still a call to me.
If he calls and wins, he has a reasonable shot at 2nd, and if he happens to be the one to bust Hiji and/or Grow, then he still has a shot at winning.
A lot of if's I agree, but more chance of that happening by calling imo.
Although occasionally a spite call
I don't remember what I had specifically in that hand but it definitely was doing very very well against a hand like 92o.
I might be a nit as well but I don't think I shove as much as 80% in that spot.
Good run in the freeroll, too
Thank you for enlightening me.
Just a thought: When a couple of players are like 3 or 4 BB's deep, like in this scenario, wouldn't the order of who's blinds are coming up next, be a factor?
In what respect G in order of whose blinds?
I would imagine most villains will be jamming close to 100% here Blind V Blind from the SB.
I just see it, that if you fold this hand, when @gr0wapear next has his BB (before you) he will probably let it go to a Button or Small Blind steal because you will be "priced in next hand" and he'll want to ladder.
So to me folding, kind of books you for a likely 4th place.
If you were to call and win, then the opposite would be true. Gr0w would be priced in on his BB, so you would almost certainly ladder and maybe have a shot at 2nd too, or even win it.
So I'd take the approximate, one in three chance of winning the hand, against his range.
No-one agrees with me of course, and the GTO guys never will, unless one can prove that their are additional factors, that the standard "So called Nash" models haven't considered.
It always amuses me when people quote Nash ranges, as the great John Nash didn't specifically do game theory for Poker as I understand it, and the variables for all the different games are completely unique.
GTO for Noughts and Crosses, GTO for Chess and GTO for Poker scenarios, all require different approaches and some are simple algorithms (noughts and crosses) for example and some are very complex indeed (chess) for example.
There certainly isn't one unique "game theory" for all games, and in some circumstances, people and Poker software tools, use the great man's name, to add substance to their software/personal beliefs, that it is GTO.
Some Poker GTO models, in certain "sub-areas", I agree with, others I feel don't take all the factors into consideration.
When/If Game Theory guys/software can ever indeed become optimal in all aspects of the game, then online poker is over, but hopefully this won't happen for a good while yet.
Meanwhile, if I believe there are other factors to consider, I can wallow in my own ignorance, but it's a futile exercise to try and defend my position.
I may well be wrong on this specific scenario, but I "feel" in this spot, order of the blinds is significant, and that "may" be something not considered into the GTO equation when assessing this situation.
I think the thing to take from this @LARSON7 is that you pretty much have a 1 in 3 chance of winning the hand, and you should make your decision based on that knowledge.
I understand why you would take the spot, we are running out of time pronto style.
At the time when I folded wasn't to sure, just wasn't happy about how junky the hand was. I quite like the fold now - there is no antes in play, we just have enough in the next hand or so to potentially start a spin up.
Calling isn't terrible for the reasons you mention, I just think of reflection foldings somewhat better.
As chickn said when short ICM means you have to fold a lot more than normal and conversely as a big stack you get to be ultra aggressive.
If you fold you are still in and have the possibility of two big hands clashing and even with 2.5bb you'll be in a similar position to what you were before the fold (i.e. still shortest).
TBH, there's not much difference in the equity against a 80% shove range and a 65% shove range (picking the middle of your suggestion)
92 is 36.67% against an 80% range and is 34.62% against a 65% range, both have a greater than 1 in 3 chance of success.
Anyway, I won't try and defend my overall position, as it is futile, but thought you should know that the difference in equity that 92 has between an 80% shove range and a 65% shove range is only about 2%. See images:
Even if they are really tight and shove 50% of their range, it goes to 32.49% still pretty close to 1 in 3. I think one thing everyone "should" agree on is that he has approximately a one in three chance of winning the hand.