Do many days pass between each time you get AA?

Williams12 · June 2023

is it coming often?

Doubleme · June 2023

this will mostly depend on volume that players put in. If you are someone who one or two games a day and that is it on tournies or sngs then yes it is likely you will go days before seeing AA at many points. However if your someone who plays 300+games a day which would likely be turbo don players on here then they would expect to see AA multiple times each day.

You should expect to see AA 1 in 221 times.

Of course this is not sampling without replacement it is sampling with replacement so you may go a lot longer at times then 221 times and may see AA several times in a short time frame.

generally you would have a
10% chance of seeing AA within 23 hands
20% chance of seeing AA within 49 hands
30% chance of seeing AA within 78 hands
40% chance of seeing AA within 113 hands
50% chance of seeing AA within 153 hands
60% chance of seeing AA within 202 hands
70% chance of seeing AA within 265 hands
80% chance of seeing AA within 355 hands
90% chance of seeing AA within 509 hands
95% chance of seeing AA within 661 hands
99% chance of seeing AA within 1015 hands

and remember the usual statistical nonsense that people believe that if it is over 51% to happen and does not then there has to be foul play because 51%=100% so must be rigged. (btw last bit is me been sardonic)

Bean81 · June 2023

Thanks for sharing those probabilities. Many can't get their heads around this kind of thing. Every poker player should be familiar with how to use a binomial probability calculator.

green_beer · June 2023

I have a note of the AA odds, here it is, hope it is correct.

Odds that you are dealt AA; 1:221

Odds that anyone is dealt AA (full ring); 1:24.5
Odds that you and another player are both dealt AA (full ring); 1:33 841
Odds that any two players are dealt AA (full ring); 1:3760

Odds when Heads up that both are dealt AA; 1:270 725

Do many days pass between each time you get AA?

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