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Could I of got away from this? (or could anyone in the same position as me)

MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,535
edited May 2010 in The Poker Clinic

This was in the very early stages in tonight's Double stack open...(hence why I am posting it after 1/2 hour, lol)
Even if I put someone on trips or two pair, do I still make the move I did?

Any help with odds and percentage would be a help here as I am more of a situation player and I really thought this was a favourable spot.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
Player 1 Small blind  10.00 10.00 3710.00
Player 2 Big blind  20.00 30.00 4480.00
  Your hole cards
  • A
  • K
     
MAXALLY Raise  125.00 155.00 3775.00
xxxxx Fold     
xxxxx Fold     
xxxxx Fold     
Player 1 Call  115.00 270.00 3595.00
Player 2 Raise  525.00 795.00 3955.00
MAXALLY Call  420.00 1215.00 3355.00
Player 1 Call  420.00 1635.00 3175.00
Flop
   
  • 10
  • J
  • 8
     
player 1 Bet  1635.00 3270.00 1540.00
Player 2 All-in  3955.00 7225.00 0.00
MAXALLY All-in  3355.00 10580.00 0.00
Player 1 All-in  1540.00 12120.00 0.00
Player 2Unmatched bet  600.00 11520.00 600.00
Player 1 Show
  • 9
  • 9
   
Player 2 Show
  • Q
  • A
   
MAXALLY Show
  • A
  • K
   
Turn
   
  • 10
     
River
   
  • 6
     
MAXALLY Win Pair of 10s 360.00  360.00
Player 1 Win Two Pairs, 10s and 9s 11160.00  11160.00
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Comments

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    beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited May 2010
    The pre-flop raise is too big, other than that; zat hand on zat frop is a go go go go arrrrrrrr eeeeeen scenario.

    Even with ridiculously tight ranges this is still a stack off, once you see their hands you see just how obvious a stack off it is. 

    You have massive equity in a massive pot, you don't want to 'get away from this', just because you missed this time this is something you should always do!
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    beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Could I of got away from this? (or could anyone in the same position as me):
    Any help with odds and percentage would be a help here as I am more of a situation player and I really thought this was a favourable spot. 
    Posted by MAXALLY


    pot pf 1635
    p1 lead call 3175 (1635+1540)
    p2 3355 effective stacks
    1635+1635+3355=6625
    pot coming to us  =6625
    (3355/6625)*100=50.64%



    50.64% equity required w/out p1 calling
    have 66.69% against QQ+ AQs+ Aqo+
    have 51.06% against KK+
    have 52.60% against QQ+
    have 55.57% against QQ+ AKs
    have 66.02% against QQ+ AJs+ AQo+

    6625+1540=8165
    pot with player1 calling all in behind (so increased pot size and another hand range to run up against)

    (3355/8165)*100= 41.09%
    41.09% required with p1 calling 100%
    have 42.95% against QQ+ AQs+ AQo+ / QQ JJ TT 99 88 AKs KQs AJs J8s+ T8s+ 97s+ AKo

    ...

    have 37.95% against KK+ / JJ TT 88 Q9s 97s Note this is worst worst case scenario and kind of unlikely because he leads out into two players so strong, however if this is the equity when it's at it's worst considering the odds we are gettings it's an arrrr eeeen as I said. :-)

    Lemme know if you get that, and mere novice check for mistakes please i'm sure there's some i'm watching Fulham hopefully win the UEFA CUP  :-)

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    MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,535
    edited May 2010

    CHEERS BEANEH.....^^^^^^^^^^ This ^^^^^^^^^ I am still learning about pot odds but after reading your post (HAD TO ABOUT 10 TIMES THOUGH BEFORE ANYTHING SANK IN!!, LOL), I am a litle bit wiser now, thanks.
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    beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Could I of got away from this? (or could anyone in the same position as me):
    CHEERS BEANEH.....^^^^^^^^^^ This ^^^^^^^^^ I am still learning about pot odds but after reading your post (HAD TO ABOUT 10 TIMES THOUGH BEFORE ANYTHING SANK IN!!, LOL), I am a litle bit wiser now, thanks.
    Posted by MAXALLY
    Most important thing you should take is the difference in equity between a wider range with lots of speculative and medium strength made hands versus the equity you have when they basically only have the nuts. 


    The reason that we can just do an equity calculation like this is that we are calling all in. If we were to shove then we would also be combining fold equity and so would win the pot 100% of the time he folds and then win some % of a bigger pot the times he calls. You'd need to assess the two to look at a shove. However if the are folding even only a little bit then shoving this hand will always show a profit too :-)

    Let me know if you dont understand anything I was watching fulham fail and tried elongating most of the shorthand i've used but it's very easy to miss some or just miss out a word or two here and there. :-)
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    Buster69Buster69 Member Posts: 135
    edited May 2010
    Hmm i don't think i make the call pre-flop i either push all in or i fold AK is still only a drawing hand and i know the guy had 99 but his re raise after a raise and call shouts strength to me so i think i chuck this away.
    However post-flop i don't think you can chuck this hand in the muck you have flush draw gutshot with the Q and 2 over-cards i think this makes you a favourite just unlucky mate
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