Weekend footy betting (26th/27th)

There was no midweek tips from me this week due to the fact that I couldn’t stay out of the bathroom long enough to even look at the screen let alone do anything else!

However, the weekend’s finally arrived & hopefully I’ve found a few gems. Two bets to begin with for me & maybe an extra one or two tomorrow morning.

Main Acca:

Wolves/Blackpool – Both to score @ 4/7

Barnsley/Norwich – Both to score @ 8/11

Preston/Burnley – Both to score @ 8/13

Chesterfield to beat Morecambe (H) @ 8/13

Dundee to beat Morton (H) @ 4/7

These five pay a very tempting 10/1 so my usual tenner here. I don’t usually go for five picks for my main bet but the price drew me in!

IMO there’s one major reason why Wolves are bottom of the prem & that’s because they’ve struggled to win the games that really matter in their fight for survival. In 27 games Wolves have won 7 yet 6 of those have come against teams in the top 10. The only game they’ve won against the other relegation battlers came against Birmingham at Molineux back in December. If they’d have picked up even just a couple of wins against sides around them they’d be much more comfortable now. As it is Blackpool are the visitors tomorrow & with the records of both sides this season it’s difficult to back a home win here. Despite a recent blip that saw them lose 7 games on the spin Blackpool seem to have turned things around just in time & are now unbeaten in their last 2. Surprisingly they’ve been really strong on the road & have actually picked up as many points on their travels as leaders Man Utd! However, like their hosts this weekend they also leak goals & it’s for that reason I think this is a good bet. I really can’t pick a winner either way here but I’d be very surprised to see a clean sheet.

Barnsley & Norwich are another two sides who have a habit of conceding almost as much as scoring. Had this game been played at Carrow Road I’d be backing a Norwich win all the way but Barnsley are no pushovers at Oakwell where they’ve only lost 3 from 16 so far. You have to go back to the middle of November since Barnsley last kept a clean sheet at home to a side in the top half of the table whilst Norwich have only one clean sheet in their last 10 on the road. These two sides shared 3 goals between them in Norfolk back in September & I reckon it’ll be a similar outcome here.

It’s a Lancashire derby at Deepdale & these two certainly have history of producing goals. These two shared 7 goals between them at Turf Moor back in September when Burnley came out on top with a 4-3 win despite being 3-1 down with just 6 minutes to play! In the last seven meetings between the two sides only one game has failed to see both sides score. Preston may be bottom of the division but Phil Brown slowly seems to be turning things around there as they’ve drawn their last 3 games with the last two coming against high flying QPR & Forest. Whether he can perform a miracle to keep them up only time will tell but they’ll certainly go all out for the win here. Likewise, Eddie Howe looks to have got Burnley’s promotion push back on track & they’ve certainly improved on the road but as we proved on Monday night, they’re vulnerable at the back so that bodes well for me!

Chesterfield are slowly closing in on promotion back to league 1 & maximum points against an out of sorts Morecambe side will edge them closer. They’re currently 9 points clear of 2^nd placed Wycombe & the main reason for that is there home form where they’ve only lost twice in 15 so far. They’re in good form too with only one defeat in their last 14 in the league home & away & despite a couple of dodgy results at home to lower placed sides in recent weeks it’s really difficult to see beyond a home win here. Morecambe currently sit in 20^th spot & are now only 6 points clear of relegation. One of the biggest reasons for that can be put down to the fact that they’ve not won in their last 9 games, a run which includes 3 defeats in their last 4. The last thing they need at the moment is a trip to the league leaders but if nothing else they can get this game out of the way then concentrate on getting enough points to remain safe.

If there is such a thing as a banker of the week then Dundee would be it. If it wasn’t for the fact that they’ve had 25 points deducted they’d be 6 points clear at the top of the division now. Without doubt they are THE form team in this division as they come into this game unbeaten in 16 in the league & have won their last 5 on the spin. In contrast Morton really don’t travel well with only 1 win in 10 attempts on the road so far & that came only last week at rock bottom Stirling Albion. Dundee also have the upper hand between the two sides as they are unbeaten in the last 6 meetings, winning 5 of them.

Massive Mega Long Shot Acca:

Palace/Reading – DRAW @ 12/5

Brighton to beat MK Dons (A) @ 11/8

Exeter to beat Hartlepool (H) @ evens

Bournemouth to beat Dagenham (A) @ 11/10

Leyton Orient (+1) to beat Huddersfield (A) @ 10/11

Lincoln to beat Barnet (A) @ 9/5

Shrewsbury to beat Gillingham (H) @ 13/10

These six pay a stonking 416/1 so only a quid at stake here.

Palace are slowly pulling themselves clear of relegation & that’s mainly down to their recent home form. They’re unbeaten in their last 9 at Selhurst winning vital games against fellow strugglers Sheff Utd, Middlesbrough & Preston whilst also holding high flying Norwich to a goalless draw there too. Whilst Reading may only be 7 points off the play off spots they’ve drawn too many games this season & that will probably be the reason why they fall short come May. In fact, Reading have drawn more games than any other side in the Championship with 14 of their 33 played ending in a stalemate. They’re a difficult side to break down & Palace are more resilient at home so another stalemate looks the most likely outcome here.

I know that Brighton are away from home & I know MK Dons are decent at home but this price is too big to ignore imo. MK Dons are currently clinging on to the final play off spot & this is mainly down to their good home form this season where they’ve only lost 3 from 16. However, they’ve lost 2 & drawn 2 of their last 4 there dropping points to strugglers Brentford & Plymouth. In contrast Brighton are in very good form at the moment. Excluding their cup defeat at Stoke last weekend they’ve only lost 1 of their last 10 in the league which came away at Bournemouth.

If I’m honest I think that backing Exeter is a bit of a close call but they’re in the better form of the two & are decent at home. They come into this game unbeaten in 3. All 3 were on the road & they’ve won 2 of them. They have lost their last 2 in the league at St James but those defeats came against two of the divisions’ high flyers, Southampton & Huddersfield. Taking those 2 defeats out the equation means they’ve only lost 2 from their other 12 at home. Hartlepool have been all over the place of late with only 2 wins in the last 11 in the league. They’ve done OK on their travels so far winning 5 & drawing 4 of their 16 away days but they’ve only picked up one point in their last 5 on the road.

Dagenham are fighting tooth & nail to preserve their league 1 status & are actually in fairly decent form of late with only 1 defeat in their last 5 in the league. They held Huddersfield to a draw in East London in midweek so this won’t be an easy game for the visitors.  However there are two reasons why I’m backing Bournemouth here. Firstly they’re in great form themselves coming into this game unbeaten in their last 8 home & away. Secondly this is a great price & can’t be ignored as part of a long shot.

Leyton Orient are going really well at the moment & if they can pick up points from their games in hand then they’ll be in a great position to sneak into the play offs. They come into this game with only 1 defeat in their last 14 home & away in the league & that came at league leaders Brighton who haven’t lost at the Withdean all season. They’ve won their last 3 on the spin & prior to that got a point at home to Brighton & away at Bournemouth so they can certainly get something from the teams at the top. They travel to Huddersfield who have been strong at home for the last couple of years but they’re certainly not unbeatable there either. At the very least the O’s are capable of getting a point from their trip to Yorkshire so with a goal head start this looks like a cracking bet.

I’m really surprised that Lincoln are priced this big to take the points at rock bottom Barnet. Yes, they may have lost 3 of their last 10 but those have all come against the better sides in this division in the shape of Wycombe, Shrewsbury & more recently Chesterfield. Their recent form against the sides in & around them has been great with 6 wins & a draw. In contrast it’s not too difficult to see why Barnet are where they are as they come into this game with only 1 win in their last 12 home & away. Lincoln also have the upper hand between the two sides winning 4 of the last 5 meetings.

There are 3 reasons why I’m backing Shrewsbury in this one. Firstly, they’re a great team to back when playing at home as they’ve only lost twice in 15 there so far. Secondly they’re in fantastic form having won their last 4 on the spin scoring 11 goals in the process whilst only conceding 1. Thirdly, this is a massive price with all things considered. Yes, Gillingham have been in good form themselves recently unbeaten in 6 & with only 2 defeats in their last 16 but crucially those 2 defeats have come against sides above them so they’re certainly not unbeatable. Had this game been at the Priestfield Stadium I probably wouldn’t back Shrewsbury but at Greenhous Meadow it’s a different ball game.

Good luck if you’re having a go peeps.

Jay