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do i shove my hand on the river or should i just make the fold on the flop
normally I'm thinking he will bet with lots of draws but with it being the early stages of the mega roller and him being OOP i was confidient he was holding two pair or set.
when the turn brought J i tried using that as a chance to bluff a straight but when he calls I'm thinking he might have put me on KJ or KQ but then again I'm thinking he could be just seeing if the full house comes on the river.
Then when i see the 3rd diamond come on the river I'm now thought their was a great chance to steal the pot but at the same time i was concerned thinking he might think I'm bluffing.
would doing the jam on this river be enough to make a very good MTT player fold or should i have just folded myself on the flop
when the turn brought J i tried using that as a chance to bluff a straight but when he calls I'm thinking he might have put me on KJ or KQ but then again I'm thinking he could be just seeing if the full house comes on the river.
Then when i see the 3rd diamond come on the river I'm now thought their was a great chance to steal the pot but at the same time i was concerned thinking he might think I'm bluffing.
would doing the jam on this river be enough to make a very good MTT player fold or should i have just folded myself on the flop
| AB0151 | Small blind | 80.00 | 80.00 | 10535.00 | |
| MattBates | Big blind | 160.00 | 240.00 | 17500.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| 9se7enTr3y | Fold | ||||
| craigcu12 | Raise | 320.00 | 560.00 | 17980.00 | |
| Claytov | Fold | ||||
| Big_Baz49 | Fold | ||||
| AB0151 | Fold | ||||
| MattBates | Call | 160.00 | 720.00 | 17340.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| MattBates | Check | ||||
| craigcu12 | Bet | 480.00 | 1200.00 | 17500.00 | |
| MattBates | Raise | 1440.00 | 2640.00 | 15900.00 | |
| craigcu12 | Call | 960.00 | 3600.00 | 16540.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| MattBates | Bet | 1260.00 | 4860.00 | 14640.00 | |
| craigcu12 | Raise | 3800.00 | 8660.00 | 12740.00 | |
| MattBates | Call | 2540.00 | 11200.00 | 12100.00 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| MattBates | Check | ||||
| craigcu12 | ? | ||||
Comments
Now you have taken this line, jamming river is good imo.
Think Q10/77 folds a decent % of the time here.
Think we can rep AK/Flushes really well here though as played.
For the reasons Ivan said if we raise the turn we gotta jam the river really imo.
Personally I'm not turning AQ into a bluff here I'm just flatting the turn.
Then can you name the hands that are worse than yours that will call?
I think both lists will be vvvvv short.
It isn't matt that i'm saying could have AK KJ J9s and 98s, what I'm saying is he could be holding AQ KQ or QJ and was thinking himself that as a way to make the middle and small pairs fold i am cbetting with my draws AK KJ J9s and 98s (which i would be doing if it were them).
so if he just has top pair then on the turn i could charge KQ more for the open ender steal the pot away from his AQ and if it were two pair or a set he had on the flop then i might be able to turn my hand into a bluff.
TBH the main fear was weather he has QJ but even that could well fold.
edit: if i did flop a straight with my 98 or AKs i would be raising on the turn as i did still see KQ QJ Q10 and sets wanting to call.
the only hand i saw that was behind on the turn is KQ.
the hands i see ahead which I'm thinking might fold the river are Q10 QJ, 77 and maybe even 1010
matt himself was thinking very hard about it and i was thinking he would be folding it but he called it at the last second which made me regret my decision.
I actually like your line and thought process in the hand Craig, and you picked a good villain to do this against (ie not some random fish who snaps with 2 pair on this river). Few more K on the river and it might have got through. A big bet on the river is essentially saying 'I'm not setting you all in, but it's almost for your tourney life, do you really wanna call it off?'
the ones i would have chosen to just check if they came were any non diamond card 2-6, 10, J or Q because those going to be likely called by sets and if the second J were the card I'm ahead of Q10 anyway.
the ones which this bet would have been a bit risky with is if the card was a non diamond A, 8 or 7 as those still have some risk of a call but make more obvious hands such as KK and AA.
the cards I'm thinking would have been sure to see him fold his hand is if they were any diamond, K or 9 (unless he had KQ) as now he would be taking a big risk calling his whole stack knowing that i could have been holding AKs AQs KQs 98s.
my mistake on the river was i thought a bit too about getting any Q10 Q7 107 1010 and 77 to fold that i didn't take into account that these hands that I'm wanting to fold will not be able to provide the flush.
really that jd card was the only one i saw which would give me the chance to turn my hand into bluff anything else and i was sure to fold.
the main hands i was trying to rep were AKs (except AcKc) KdQd AdQd QQ and 98s. most times i would have folded the turn.
It was with this villian being matt that i saw a chance to attempt that bluff. most others would just look at their 2 pair and snap call but matt will know that my range of hands are likely to be them i said above.
the hand i would rule out right away but is AK because if he is this aggressive with it on flops like this then why would he have just called it preflop?
he might have 98 but i'm thinking he going to go all in on the turn with that as now i've shown the strength of QJ a set or AKs AQs KQs and he might be behind to AK but would have loads of hands in my range which are potential threats so surely he will want to charge them now.
as for J9 and KJ well if they are in his range i want to charge more on the turn rather than just call because i think a blank on the river and he is going to check his draw as my range will consist of two pair sets or maybe over pairs frequently.
so although his semi bluffs might cause the J to be as much of a danger to me as it is to him.
him choosing to semi bluff on the flop is posing as a real danger if the turn is a blank since it will leave him being called by the sets overpairs and two pairs.