Query about two river decisions

shakinaces · July 2014

Same table although two different villains - not regs so limited notes on them - neither was showing down maniac-bluffs but there was a lot of pre-flop limping and the villain in the first hand had min bet flop and turn a few times before a bigger river bet (which had gotten folds every time I noticed it).

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
villain	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£19.34
chrisx2525	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£10.32
	Your hole cards	A K
VINEY73	Fold
Strider_78	Call		£0.10	£0.25	£9.18
shakinaces	Raise		£0.35	£0.60	£35.29
villain	Call		£0.30	£0.90	£19.04
chrisx2525	Fold
Strider_78	Fold
Flop
		6 K A
villain	Bet		£0.10	£1.00	£18.94
shakinaces	Raise		£0.60	£1.60	£34.69
villain	Call		£0.50	£2.10	£18.44
Turn
		2
villain	Check
shakinaces	Bet		£1.50	£3.60	£33.19
villain	Call		£1.50	£5.10	£16.94
River
		J
villain	Bet		£3.83	£8.93	£13.11
shakinaces	????

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
villain	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£15.02
crommers	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£13.74
	Your hole cards	J J
VINEY73	Fold
kev1993	Fold
gragun	Fold
shakinaces	Raise		£0.25	£0.40	£19.75
villain	Raise		£1.25	£1.65	£13.77
crommers	Fold
shakinaces	Call		£1.05	£2.70	£18.70
Flop
		5 9 9
villain	Bet		£2.03	£4.73	£11.74
shakinaces	Call		£2.03	£6.76	£16.67
Turn
		7
villain	Check
shakinaces	Check
River
		6
villain	Check
shakinaces	?????

grantorino · July 2014

1 snap it off
2 meh b/f small and hope AK calls

Edit: misread hand 1 see post below

CraigSG1 · July 2014

Hand one is a strange one and I think we can raise here profitably? We beat a lot of two pair hands and KJ fits the action and even AJ. It's very hard to have Q10 and I'm thinking the only set he can realistically have is 66 and usually I'm expecting a check raise on turn as people do get nervous when FDs arrive. All though saying that I think against unknowns I will probably just call as it's about the bet I would make anyway.

Hand two. Again, against unknowns it's a little harder but I think we can definately value bet smallish and get calls by worse PPs and some A highs. It's going to take a good player to bluff raise us here so we can safely fold here if that happens.

salazar · August 2014

Hand 1 could be q10 of clubs or maybe he's called down with JJ and hit a set on the river.

he could do the same with AJ which you're beating but it's one of them where he's got you crushed or he's doing a wild bluff.

hand 2 i think he's either got an overpair to your JJ or he's missed completly with something like AK, the latter seems more likely. An 8 doesn't really make sense with his pre flop play. he shuts down after the continuation bet so i think you have him beat

seanallen · August 2014

First hand i'd shove. You 'd be giving him two to one on making the call. Combined with the fact he's put in about a third of his stack already I reckon your ahead of about 70 - 75 percent of his calling range. You'd be asking him to call £13 to win a pot of £39, if he's sitting there with two pair I can't see him folding it.

grantorino · August 2014

God Im blind thought we had 1 pair in hand 1

Prob jam, puke when he turns over JJ

shakinaces · August 2014

Thanks for the feedback all.

The second I was more certain I'd missed a value bet at the time, but I have to admit it's still a weakness to bet/spew-call if I do get raised in those sort of spots

FWIW, I called pot1 and checked pot2 and won them both.

Different random villains but both had A5o

Final Q - what sort of river sizing would be optimum against an unknown in hand 2, assuming I'm sensible enough to b/f? Is 1/2 pot the sort of ballpark I should be aiming for?

HYPETING · August 2014

Flat seems fine on river in hand 1. Not much calls a jam that you beat, unless you have notes he is a POW.

I'm actually leaning towards a 4b in hand 2, and happy to GII pre.

BorinLoner · August 2014

We're missing colossal value by not raising on the river in hand one. In the long-term, we're probably missing even more value by not raising the flop a lot bigger. If the villain will lead/call a raise to 6BB with Ax, he'll probably call 10BB with exactly the same range and that's not an outrageous size in a 10BB pot.

We should expect to be beaten by two combinations of 66 in his range and crushing everything else. Raise the flop bigger and shove river.

In the second hand, I think the advantages of flatting the 3-bet are clear: Keeping villain's range wider, playing in position with a bigger SPR and not risking 4-bet/calling against a largely unknown 5-bet range.

There's value in betting on the river if the villain is capable of calling with A-high hands. The more Ax hands we perceive them to be 3-betting with, the better. We're not getting value from smaller pocket pairs because we only beat TT, 22, 33 and 44. Safe to say we're not getting value from 22, 33 or 44.

In a vacuum, I'd expect AA, KK and better to certainly keep betting the turn. We should be expecting to be ahead a high proportion of the time so we need to give the villain a chance to make a mistake with worse. It's not the worst check-back in the world but I don't think you'll see the villain turn over AA, KK or QQ too often.

As for the sizing, we might think that a bigger bet looks more bluffy but this board texture fits your range much better than the villain's. Betting big is just going to look like you have an eight or better. I'd probably bet a little under half pot with my entire range, let's say £3.

grantorino · August 2014

I dont think a 4b pre in h2 would be a great idea when our only read on villain is hasn't shown down bluffs and limps a lot pre. Half pot or even a bit less would be good on river imo

Flop sizing fine in h1 imo given info hero had at the time

Query about two river decisions

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