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How often is this profitable ?

TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,194
in The Poker Clinic
Hello again guys I looking for some of you maths type geniuses to help me with a problem.

In my live tourneys I'm finding that when I'm raising with 2 pr on the flop I'm often getting reraised or even shoved on by top pr with fl draw. Frequently this gets it all in and whilst it may just be variance i seem to lose to a turned or rivered flush about 2 out of 3 occasions.

I find that if my opponent has flopped a set then the initial raise of mine is usually called and obvs I'm not raisng with a paired flop very often.

I don't have either the poker tools or the nous to work out the percentages so for those of you to whom these dark atrs come easily. Help, please.

Yours in poker,

Mark
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    DuesenbergDuesenberg Member Posts: 1,740
    edited May 2018
    With your 2 pair vs top pair plus flush draw situation, the odds will vary a little depending upon exactly what combination of cards are in play. To give you an idea though, I'll run an example:

    Your cards are 8c7d and your opponent holds AhKh. On a flop of Ad8h7h, the player with AhKh will win 51% of the time versus 49% for 8c7d, so it's a virtual coin toss (this all assumes the hand goes to showdown of course).

    I'm no maths genius and these numbers were all worked out using a program called Equilab. It's a great tool for working out various spots like this and it will probably help improve your game the more you play around with it (it certainly did mine). Best of all, it's completely free. Just google 'Equilab' - you should probably find it somewhere on the pokerstrategy.com website.
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    TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,194
    Thanks Duesenberg. Sorry for the lack of specifics.
    It usually pans out something like I'm holding 8d 5d in the bb (unraised pre) and the flop comes 10h 5c 8c with the opponent typically showing up with 10c 9c.

    i will find "Equilab" many thanks for taking the time to post.

    Yours in poker

    Mark
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    TheEdge949TheEdge949 Member Posts: 5,194
    FWIW I have downloaded Equilab and omg started with some equity training using my usual starting ranges against the systems pre assigned villain range only to discover that I am within about 5% when my equity is between 18 and 30 and about 10% out between 30 and 55 but am undervaluing my equity by as much as 25% when 55% or better which I'm assuming means that I'm leaving masses of equity and money on the table a lot of the time and am super exploitable. Talk about leak central I honestly never realised my game was that weak.

    Thank you for the heads up about it. I'm going to spend at least an hour a session working through it.

    Yours in poker,

    Mark
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