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JJ facing a shove on the flop
craigcu12
Member Posts: 3,960
given the way the action was preflop should is their much chance of me still being ahead on the flop or should i fold
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| conlon06 | Small blind | £0.04 | £0.04 | £1.82 | |
| supermanu1 | Big blind | £0.08 | £0.12 | £7.45 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| craigcu12 | Raise | £0.40 | £0.52 | £6.50 | |
| conlon06 | Call | £0.36 | £0.88 | £1.46 | |
| supermanu1 | Raise | £1.60 | £2.48 | £5.85 | |
| craigcu12 | Call | £1.28 | £3.76 | £5.22 | |
| conlon06 | Call | £1.28 | £5.04 | £0.18 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| conlon06 | All-in | £0.18 | £5.22 | £0.00 | |
| supermanu1 | All-in | £5.85 | £11.07 | £0.00 | |
Comments
Open for 5x out of an 86BB stack.
Face a 3-bet for 20x, which we flat call.
Ten-high flop, facing a shove we have to call or we should fold pre-flop.
Either way, I think we should probably be folding or shoving pre-flop. We lack the implied odds to set-mine if we think the 3-bet is only AA, KK, or QQ and if the range is wider than that, we want to get it in pre-flop before they have a chance to miss the board and give up the hand.
Shove or fold pre-flop but if we call pre-flop it has to be because we can extract value from weaker hands through the streets, not just to flop a set. If that was the plan, this is a call on the flop.
I agree with Lambert it's a fold pre, say if it was at a high level for serious money, but it's only just over a quid to call. You call, and while a 10 high flop looks like a dream, as soon as oppos all in, what can we possible be beating after the action preflop.
We have called, not hut our set, just fold it. I don't think we can ever justify a call there.
The only justification for calling pre-flop is that it's the best way to extract value from weaker hands, which means we now have to call the flop. If we're going to fold a ten-high flop, we have to fold pre-flop. Not having a plan for post-flop play when we make the call pre-flop is going to be disastrous for us in the long-term.
Against most opponents, it's a shove or fold pre-flop, as I said. However if you call the plan can't be to set-mine with the measly implied odds we're being offered. The implied odds are £1.28 to win a maximum of £8.98 which is roughly 7:1. Our odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1. So calling to merely set mine is demonstrably -EV. (Assuming that the third player does not get involved, as we should do)
7.5:1 would not be good enough implied odds anyway because we can not be sure that we always stack our opponent when we hit our set and we can't be sure that we always win when we hit our set.
So folding the flop after calling pre-flop is bad.
EDIT: Altered my numbers slightly after misreading the hand history
In Response to Re: JJ facing a shove on the flop:
You are right in what you say, apart from the last bit imo.In poker particuarly at a low level, it's easy to see a high pocket pair jacks and find it hard to let them so. So while the call pre-flop in my opinion should be a fold, i dont think we can say its bad to fold the flop (just because we have called preflop). Like with everything poker is a lot of skill, some way luck, and mostly making the right decisions.
If i call a raise preflop, then on the flop i reassess due to a massive bet getting put in. If i now think i'm behind I have to fold. It's a fluid thing, constantly changing.
Due to the nature of the game, there is always going to be misakes. It is just limiting these.
If you call that pre-flop 3-bet you can only justify it as being a value play because he's going to c-bet lots of weaker hands which he would fold to a pre-flop 4-bet. Calling to fold to a flop c-bet, especially on good flops such as Ten-high, is going to result in huge long-term losses. That really isn't debatable.
You call the flop bet a "massive bet" but it's not. It's a pot-sized bet and exactly what we have to expect when we make the call pre-flop. In fact, if the bet was smaller it would actually seem scarier than the shove.
I'd like to reiterate that I'd prefer an all-in or fold pre-flop. Even if the pre-flop call was a well considered value play to exploit a wide 3-betting range, it's likely to be less profitable in the long-run than just moving all-in and assuming that the 3-better is pot-committed.
There is a question that needs to be asked of the OP about the pre-flop raise size: Why are you making it 5x? Is that just because DOHHHHHHH's micro-stakes guide told you to do it or do you have your own reasons for this? Do you make this same raise with 22 or 89s?
Posted by BorinLoner
this is why i bet so big preflop
The reason I don't subscribe to the big bets idea at NL4 is that it restricts the hands you can play. Yes, you will get more value from players who can't fold weak hands if you raise big with strong hands but it makes it really tough to play other hands. There are plenty of other great value spots you won't be able to exploit because you'll be unbalanced if you open to 3x with more marginal value hands. This strategy does nothing to prepare you for moving up the levels. It's also really frustrating when you sit around waiting for big hands and then someone stacks you anyway.
So how do you play your other hands? Do you just fold your suited connectors on the button? Do you 5x with them? Do you change your bet sizing depending on the strength of your hand? I want you to think for yourself about how your big bet sizing works for your game as a whole and whether getting maximum value from your big hands is coming at the expense of missed value from other hands. Does it improve your overall game?
Maybe you feel it's the best way but I'd like to hear your arguments in favour of it.
but i will shorten my betting size from places like the cut off and button to 3xbb with almost every hand because basically small and middle pairs i usually just limp from UTG anyway and things like suited connectors most times play from later positions.
but TBH the truth about why all this 5x BB is done you see is because 9 out of 10 villians on micro stakes see the flop as their main folding point so why waste the chance of getting 20p off them preflop knowing most will fold right away on the flop.
the reason i say this is because unless you can explain to me why the **** this villian does a raise on the turn but then folds my reraise. i just feel that i'm left with no choice other than to do constant 5xBB preflop and as long as it is not a calling station or maniac then i can simply bluff myself the winnings.
if this villian holds an A why does he not do a raise right away on the flop if it's just a pair of A with a weak kicker then why does he raise when he could have called the turn so if he has got two pair on the turn what is he not then calling my reraise.
i will admit that once i get to the nl10p table the chances are that i will have a constant 3 bet almost every hand becuase that will be when the number of loose passive players will drop.