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Too Nitty?

JockBMWJockBMW Member Posts: 2,653
edited March 2013 in The Poker Clinic

Hand History #630288768 (10:07 08/03/2013)

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
marcus11 Small blind   25.00 25.00 1867.50
luckyace01 Big blind   50.00 75.00 2455.00
  Your hole cards
  • J
  • J
     
seahorse28 Raise   200.00 275.00 1872.50
JockBMW Raise   500.00 775.00 1380.00
A_Ringer Fold        
willy296 All-in   1725.00 2500.00 0.00
marcus11 Fold        
luckyace01 Call   1675.00 4175.00 780.00
seahorse28 Fold        
JockBMW Fold
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Comments

  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited March 2013
    is this in a dym or mtt mate?
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  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited March 2013
    Good point from Donald there. DYM it's an easy fold and I don't think I even 3bet.

    If it is an MTT, I probably still flat the raise as it's 4x and UTG. If I am 3betting it's only ever with the intention of getting it in, not to 3bet/fold
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited March 2013
    wp. like the 3bet. like the fold to the cold 4 shove and cold call.

    3b/f to the initial raiser and 3b/f to a cold 4 AND a cold call are completely diff things. 7

    looking at the stacks though I prob just GII and fade vs AK. Gambbbooollllllllllllllllllllllllll
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  • JockBMWJockBMW Member Posts: 2,653
    edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Too Nitty?:
    is this in a dym or mtt mate?
    Posted by The_Don90

    DYM Mate 
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  • bignoise10bignoise10 Member Posts: 567
    edited March 2013
    Prob the last person to offer constructive advice m8,but if its a dym,fold fold fold.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Too Nitty?:
    In Response to Re: Too Nitty? : DYM Mate 
    Posted by JockBMW
    given that its a dym i think you play this well once you fold. I think its rare we're going to be ahead, AK & AK or TT and 99 would be the best hope, but i suspect thats a pipe dream. 

    Im not the best at dyms, so maybe once you 3b you have to call I dont know, would be interesting to see if another dym reg comments. 


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  • SHANXTASHANXTA Member Posts: 1,507
    edited March 2013

    easy fold in a dym
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  • devonfish5devonfish5 Member Posts: 4,291
    edited March 2013
    it's a fold or all-in pre-flop.
    (prefer the all-in) *
    you've wasted 5oo chips.
    & the chance of winning 275 either un-contested or at worst going to showdown.
    as played...fold
    (* *)
       ^
    dev

    ps; *been going through the hand in my head & wondering why i prefer the all-in to the fold.

    and if i'm correct?...
                   we have JJ and by going all-in could pick up 275 chips about 1/6 of our stack from memory 
     we are only really concerned here with 3 hands beating us QQ KK AA
     don't think we will get called by AK or worse,or shouldn't,if we do ,no worries racing.
     or pocket pairs lower than JJ, if we do happy days.

    so 5 players still in play each have a 1/169 chance of AA  1/169 of KK & 1/169 of QQ
    so thats 5 players with a 3/55 approx chance of beating us.
    3/55 equates to 1/18
    so 5 players all have a 1/18 chance of beating us
    so 1x5 =5 so now the odds are 5/18  so the odds are now 1/3.6 of someone beating us

    so,if my calculations are correct,(and i'm no expert so i might be way off here,and i'd be happy for someone to correct me if i'm wrong),then taking into the equation we could get called by the AK,etc & lower pocket pairs,
    thus reducing our odds again of winning...
    it's almost certainly going to be less than a 1/3.6 of someone beating us,probably lower than 1/3

    so,in summary;
                          i've said go all-in with a possible return of 275 chips (from everyone folding)
                      if we get called...we have a 1/3 (or less) chance of losing a 2/3 chance of winning

     so we win 275 chips 2 times from 3
     and lose our stack  1 time from 3   (this does not factor in the times we hit our hand & win,or are ahead & win ))

    this tells me what?  it's now a fold not an all-in as i first thought. so i was wrong. (from my way of working it out anyway).
    but saying that; "i'd still be happy making the all-in play,rather than the 500 original raise made.)

    as i said,i'm no expert with odds/percentages,and i could be way out here,but i think i'm somewhere near it.
    and as said,feel free all you 'wiz kids' in correcting me here if i'm wrong)


                  
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  • JockBMWJockBMW Member Posts: 2,653
    edited March 2013
    Thanks for the Feedback guys.  Here's how the hand played out lol ;o)

    Hand History #630288768 (10:06 08/03/2013)

    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    marcus11 Small blind   25.00 25.00 1867.50
    luckyace01 Big blind   50.00 75.00 2455.00
      Your hole cards
    • J
    • J
    		     
    seahorse28 Raise   200.00 275.00 1872.50
    JockBMW Raise   500.00 775.00 1380.00
    A_Ringer Fold        
    willy296 All-in   1725.00 2500.00 0.00
    marcus11 Fold        
    luckyace01 Call   1675.00 4175.00 780.00
    seahorse28 Fold        
    JockBMW Fold        
    luckyace01 Show
    • Q
    • A
    		     
    willy296 Show
    • 3
    • A
    		     
    Flop
       
    • J
    • 10
    • J
    		     
    Turn
       
    • Q
    		     
    River
       
    • 3
    		     
    luckyace01 Win Two Pairs, Queens and Jacks 4175.00   4955.00
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  • devonfish5devonfish5 Member Posts: 4,291
    edited March 2013
    that's unbelievable isn't it?

    (i had to re-write my original post as i'd thought you had made a good fold.)  lol

    WOT ARE THE ODDS OF THAT?

    UNLUCKY PETE (i think)

    (* *)
       ^
    dev

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  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited March 2013
    Would like a DYM expert to give their opinion (more just so I can see if I'm right or not lol) but I think just flat calling the open is best play here.

    Don't really wanne be 3bet getting it in V an 4x UTG open, especially when flipping will be -EV.

    Really don't wanna be 3bet/folding

    Folding to the inital open seems nitty even for a DYM, but I'm not sure shipping is great given how little we win V the fact we're crushed when called and it's coming from a 4x UTG.
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  • devonfish5devonfish5 Member Posts: 4,291
    edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Too Nitty?:
    Would like a DYM expert to give their opinion (more just so I can see if I'm right or not lol) but I think just flat calling the open is best play here. Don't really wanne be 3bet getting it in V an 4x UTG open, especially when flipping will be -EV. Really don't wanna be 3bet/folding Folding to the inital open seems nitty even for a DYM, but I'm not sure shipping is great given how little we win V the fact we're crushed when called and it's coming from a 4x UTG.
    Posted by Lambert180
    let me know when u find one.  lol
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  • cenachavcenachav Member Posts: 2,682
    edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Too Nitty?:
    Would like a DYM expert to give their opinion (more just so I can see if I'm right or not lol) but I think just flat calling the open is best play here. Don't really wanne be 3bet getting it in V an 4x UTG open, especially when flipping will be -EV. Really don't wanna be 3bet/folding Folding to the inital open seems nitty even for a DYM, but I'm not sure shipping is great given how little we win V the fact we're crushed when called and it's coming from a 4x UTG.
    Posted by Lambert180
    You won't find one here.  They're all too busy grinding DYM's :)
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