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cheltenham day 1
andybuck
Member Posts: 652
CHELTENHAM DAY 1
1.30 - William Hill Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade One:
The traditional curtain raiser to the Festival run over the same distance as the Champion Hurdle. (2 miles 110 yards) and open to Novices four years old and upwards. Runners are required to jump eight flights and the race is noted for it's fast pace.
Key Trends:
Aged 5 or 6
Won at least 50% of their starts over hurdles.
Won last time out
Have run at least twice but no more than six times over hurdles
Have a pre-race RPR of 137 or greater
Ran within the last 45 days
Rated within 12 pounds of RPR top-rated
Previously won or been placed in a Graded race
Irish trained runners have a good record, although the English have taken the last two renewals.
Avoid horses with just one run or were unplaced or fell last time out.
Favourites have a poor record (only three have won in the past 20 years and twelve winners won at double figure prices)
The size of this seasons field (12 runners) is a little disappointing but the quality remains and it still looks a tough race to win. The pace of this race is likely to come from Champagne Fever but it looks likely that Un Atout and Pique Sous will be just off that pace and, as all three represent Willie Mullins, they're unlikely to make it easy for anything else. A lot is made about the need for a horse with an ability to stay further but only four of the last ten winners of this race had run over further than 17 furlongs before running in the Champion Hurdle.
The main protagonists:
My Tent Or Yours: The current favourite after demolishing the field in the Grade Three Betfair Handicap at Newbury last time out. Did it without coming off the bridle from a mark of 149 (now rated 162) and that makes him a serious racehorse under the right conditions. There are notes of caution to observe. The Newbury race wasn't run at a very fast pace and My Tent Or Yours was always well placed. This is likely to be run much differently and he has to prove himself on an undulating track with an uphill finish. Favourites have a poor record in this race and horses coming from a handicap last time out have a terrible strike rate. The negatives may prove fruitless, he is rated six pounds superior to his nearest rival, but there's the nagging doubt that he is a bridle horse who may not relish a battle off it. He could treat these with disdain but there has only been one winner oft his race who has prevailed by more than three lengths in the past ten seasons and four of those winners won by a neck or less, so it's not an easy race to stamp supposed 'class'. He is a keen horse so a faster gallop will help him on that score but at around 2/1 he doesn't, at this stage, appeal as one to be lumping on.
Jezki: Comes here having won all four of his races over hurdles and has a one and half length verdict over Champagne Fever to his name. Couldn't be described as improving at a fast rate but is progressing and showed a smart turn of foot to come away from a Grade One field in Ireland last time out. Trainer says he will be an even better horse on faster ground but yet to race on anything faster than soft, so underfoot condition here shouldn't be an excuse. Appeals from a class angle, being only one of two Grade One winners in the field but his absence since December is a big worry and not the profile of a typical winner of this race. Tony McCoy has presumably chosen the favourite over Jezki but it wouldn't be the first time he has got it wrong. He is a slick jumper and if his respected yard have got him cheery ripe without a recent prep run then he could bust the only major negative he seems to have.
Un Atout: Won both his hurdle races to date with ease but started odds on for both and didn't beat anything of note. Falls into the 'could be anything' category but he will travel faster than he has ever done in this race and his lack of experience and competitive company is a concern. The horse he beat 19 lengths at Naas last time out was only rated 128 and has been thrashed in three races since. For a horse now quoted at a best priced 7/1, he has plenty to prove class wise and has had a longer than ideal break. Only raced on heavy ground over hurdles but soft ground shouldn't pose a problem. Connections are of the opinion he is the real deal but, until he proves it in exulted company such as this, you would be backing more in hope than judgement.
Champagne Fever: Along with Jezki, the only Grade One winner in the field, and yet he trades a bit bigger than Un Atout. He has had two reversals in his four hurdle races and his defeat of Jezki may be hard to reverse. Gives the impression he will be a more effective Chaser and may lack the speed for this test. Won the Champion Bumper in 2012 so he has experience of the course and the ground has come right for him. Can't think that his jockey is going to do anything other than take them along at a good pace, and he could stay there for a long way, but it's not difficult seeing something with a quicker change of gear taking his measure at the business end. Got back on track by winning his Grade One last time out and the runner up has since won at Grade Two level. Certainly has the ability but it may truly come to fruition over further and when tackling fences.
Dodging Bullets: Last season's Triumph Hurdle fourth who was third in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle last time out. That was run at a modest pace which wouldn't have suited and he looks capable of producing a lifetime best in this race if the gallop is honest. Won twice over this C/D this season and has a generally progressive profile. Only rated six pounds below My Tent Or Yours, and has arguably achieved that rating in better company, There is a slight worry about soft ground, and he hasn't been seen for 76 days, but his course and Festival experience will hold him in good stead and if anyone can beat a stat then it's his Trainer. His price looks far more tempting than some of those trading shorter who have more to prove but he does seem to have a mind of his own. Can get on his toes before a race and run too freely when the pace is moderate. However there is nothing wrong with his attitude when he is asked to go about his business.
Puffin Billy: Quickly becoming the forgotten horse of this affair after being put in his place in no uncertain terms by Melodic Rendevous at Exeter last time out but he was found to be lame post race, so he can be forgiven that effort. Won his only two starts easily enough but the last of those came in a four runner Grade Two event and the runner up has done nothing for the form since. He could only beat them as easily as he did so it may be harsh to rate him through his opponents and he is obviously a lot better than we have so far seen. Officially rated 14 pounds below the favourite but that could very well be misleading if he improves again on those earlier efforts. Likely to stay further than this in time and yet to race on ground faster than soft over hurdles, so conditions here will hold no terrors. Not devoid of speed and could be underestimated by the market.
Of the Others: River Maigue has to reverse Cheltenham form with Dodging Bullets and, although that wasn't a truly run race, it wouldn't have suited the latter either, who had to make his own running. Pique Sous ran well here in last season's Champion Bumper but he lacks experience over hurdles and takes a big hike in class. Cheltenian won the Bumper here in 2011 but that form hasn't worked out well. He did run very well on his return from a long absence last time out but he will have to come on significantly for that run if he is to trouble the principals and the softer ground could be a problem. Cause Of Causes was well behind My Tent Or Yours at Newbury last time out and his narrow defeat of Midnight Game before that doesn't look good enough to win this. The rest don't appeal on all known form.
Summary:
My Tent Or Yours is rated the best horse in the race and could run out an easy winner but at prices of 2/1 and less he looks worth taking on. Un Atout has potential but he is taking a huge step up in class and looks under-priced. Dodging Bullets, on a track he likes, looks likely to go well and Champagne Fever may get the run of the race. There is a concern about Jezki's absence coming into this but he has proven his class and showed an impressive turn of foot last time out at Leopardstown. At bigger prices Puffin Billy and Cheltenian are interesting with the former preferred on the ground.
Selections: (Outlay - 2 pts)
Jezki - 1.5 pts win @ 5/1 (Coral, Sportingbet)
Puffin Billy - 0.5 pts win @ 16/1. (Sportingbet)
2.05 - Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1:
The Arkle is a chase open to Novices of five years and upwards run over two miles and is classed as their Championship race. It is normally highly competitive and to win a horse needs to be able to jump well at speed. Many good quality Novices over fences, and previously hurdles, have failed this test.
Key Trends:
Had not run more than five times over fences.
Aged 6 or 7
Have contested and preferably won a Grade One race over fences or hurdles.
Shorter than 11/1.
Had won a novice chase over 16/17 furlongs.
Finished in the first 2 of all completed chase starts
Rated within 12 pounds of top RPR-rated
Pre-race RPR of at least 144
RPR hurdle rating of at least 140.
Off the track for at least 35 days prior to the race, although some have won from shorter breaks..
Won last time out
Trained by Hobbs, Nicholls or King
Favourites, front runners have a poor record
The protagonists:
Simonsig: The horse they all have to beat. Attacks his fences with relish and seems to really enjoy his racing. Rated lower than Overturn, his main market rival, but has huge potential. Slight concern he hasn't been seen for 75 days but there have been no negative vibes emanating from the yard and fitness is rarely a problem with their representatives. Versatile on ground good or softer and won the Neptune over hurdles here last season, so he has track experience. Hasn't made the semblance of a mistake in both his Chases to date and the presence of a few that like to get on with things should set this race up nicely for him. Along with Sprinter Sacre, one of the most solid favourites of the meeting.
Overturn: A credit to his connections and a horse with an admirable attitude. Wears his heart on his sleeve and won't fail for the want of trying but isn't the most natural of jumpers through the air and his front running style could leave him vulnerable to the favourite. May have fared better on faster ground but the recent rain is against him and it looks a tall order to beat the favourite.
Summary:
Simonsig is not a working mans price but he looks one of the better favourites at the meeting. That thought is further enhanced by conditions being against his main market rival.
Selection: (Outlay - 0 pts)
No Bet
2.40 - JLT Speciality Handicap Chase Grade 3:
Traditionally the first handicap run at the Festival. It is run over 3 miles 110 yards on the old course and is open to horses five years old and upwards. It's often used as a trial for the Grand National and it's wise to be aware of horses being potentially with that specific target. This is a demanding test of stamina due to the large field often leading to a fast pace as horses seek a good early position. There have only been two double figure priced winners since the turn of this century but they returned at 50/1 (2007) and 33/1 (2010)
Key Trends:
Aged between 7 and 10.
Won at three miles or more
Carrying 10-12 or less. (only one winner has carried more than 11 stone to victory since 2000 and that came in 2011 (11-2))
Won a handicap over fences at Class 3 or better.
Placed in either or both their last two starts.
Officially rated between 127 and 143.
Have run at least seven times in the NH Sphere
Last run between 3 and 7 weeks ago
Run no more than four times that season.
Run in chases between 5 and 11 times in their career.
Placed at worst in a previous Cheltenham Festival.
Summary:
The handicaps at the Festival are very competitive and contain too many potential winners to list in detail. This is a very competitive 24 runner handicap but the two that appeal most are Loch Ba and Monkerty Tunkerty. Our Mick was tempting but seven year olds carrying more than eleven stone outside Novice handicap company have a poor record in Festival Handicaps so, at his current price he is reluctantly passed over.
Loch Ba: Has looked an improved performer this season and was very impressive when running out a comfortable winner last time out at Newbury. The handicapper has taken note and raised him 12 pounds but the jumping problems which blighted his early Chasing career seemed to have been eradicated and he has plenty of scope for improvement. He will need it because this is a marked rise in class and he has the disadvantage of racing on this track for the first time. However he appears a more mature horse this season and he will benefit from the number of pacesetters in this field. Whether he can hold his jumping together against better horses going faster is a question he has to answer but trip and ground are fine and he gets in here off a nice racing weight. Goes well fresh so a 55 day break, while longer than ideal, should be of little consequence to him.
Munkerty Tunkerty: Into veteran status now but relatively unexposed under rules and has a terrific win and place record both under rules and in the Pointing field. Versatile regarding ground conditions and only put up five pounds for winning at Doncaster last time out. Reportedly struck into when disappointing behind Loch Ba on his penultimate start but that followed a facile win at Wincanton on Boxing Day. Travels and stays well so there is room for more improvement given this stiffer track. Another who has the disadvantage of not racing here before but his jumping is rarely a cause for concern and it's not difficult to see him enjoying this experience. Versatile tactically and could benefit from being held up in what looks likely to be a truly run affair.
Selections: (Outlay - 4 pts)
Loch Ba - 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 (Betfred, Betvictor, Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
Monkerty Tunkerty - 1 pt e/w @ 18/1. (Berfred, Totesport, 1/4 odds first 5)
3.20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1:
The first of the four major races at the Festival, the Champion Hurdle is run over 2 miles 110 yards on the old course, It's open to horses of five years old and upwards.
Key Trends:
Only one five year old has won this race in the last ten years (five have been placed) and no horse ten or older has won (one placed). Six year olds have won it twice, seven year olds four times, eight year olds twice and nine year olds once.
All the past ten winners finished in the first three last time out. Seven were winners, two were second and one finished third.
Rock On Ruby (77 days) last season was the first horse in the past ten years to come here having not run between 23 and 51 days of the race.
Of those that had a rating (two didn't) seven of the eight were rated in the 160's.
All the past ten winners had won that season and eight of them had made the racecourse at least three times in that campaign.
The main Protagonists:
Hurricane Fly: Connections said to be happier with him this season than they were last year and he has had no problem adding another four Grade One victories to his profile since finishing third in this race last season. However he only faced a total of 17 opponents in those four outings and he was long odds on for all of them. The ground has come in his favour but it's very difficult to gauge if he is back to his best when he keeps beating very small fields in testing ground. Connections are very bullish, and they should know, and there are enough doubts about several of his opponents to think he can be only the second horse to regain the Champion Hurdle Crown. The lack of obvious pace is also likely to play into the handles of a horse who travels and quickens well.
Rock On Ruby: Last year's winner and, like last season, comes here on the back of just two prep runs. Fitted with the first time blinkers, which is a bit surprising, and the worry is they could light him up. The recent rain has not done him any favours because his seven victories have all come on ground no worse than G/S. Last season's victory was no fluke but there are a few more doubts about him this time round. If he handles the ground, takes to the headgear and someone put's a decent pace to the race then a repeat victory could be a distinct possibility, but they're big if's when you're trading at a best priced 5/1.
Zarkander: Won all three of his starts this season but the manner of his victories suggest a stiffer test would be ideal. Has an admirable attitude but grinds out his races and may need to try and put his stamina to good use if he is to run the finish out of some of these. The problem he has that, if he does, it will suit horses like Rock On Ruby, Grandouet and Countrywide Flame. For all those doubts he is still a major player but it may take all his jockey's acumen to get him home in front.
Grandouet: Reports of an injury scare and an interrupted preparation has seen his price drift in recent weeks but his Trainer gave an upbeat statement about his well-being yesterday morning so he may run better than the doom mongers are predicting. That interruption has, however, kept him off the race track since December so it's a far from ideal run up to a Championship race. He was conceding Zarkander four pounds when beaten two lengths by him in heavy ground over 17 furlongs here when last seen and, not for the first time, didn't come up the hill as well as he travelled onto it. That was in heavy ground so, although soft ground is not ideal, it gives him a better opportunity to get home, as does the slightly shorter trip. He is a supreme traveller and has a progressive profile so, if all is well with him, his price is beginning to look attractive.
Binocular: Beaten five lengths by Hurricane Fly on his only start this season in January but he has always improved on his second start of a campaign and it will probably be a similar story here. He ran better than his finishing position suggests in last season's renewal where, although beaten six and half lengths by Rock On Ruby, he nearly uprooted the final hurdle. It's asking a lot for him to become Champion again at the age of nine but it's exactly what's being asked of Hurricane Fly and Binocular hasn't run a bad race here. Some of his form last season was up there with his best but he isn't getting any better at his age and probably needs a few of these to under-perform to make his present felt
Of the others: Countrywide Flame could outrun his odds if he gets a decent pace to aim at but the ground has gone against Cinders And Ashes. Khyber Kim is now an eleven year old and vulnerable to younger legs and Balder Success doesn't look good enough.
Summary:
If his connections are right about Hurricane Fly being back to his best then he should win this. Big runs at decent prices from Binocular and Countrywide Flame wouldn't be the biggest surprise and Rock On Ruby and Zarkander have done more than enough to advertise their credentials. However, despite previous negative vibes, an interrupted preparation and ground softer than ideal, Grandouet has drifted out to a tempting price.
Selection: (Outlay - 2 pts)
Grandouet - 1 pt e/w @ 9/1 (Generally available)
4.00 - Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase)
Run over 3 miles 7 furlongs on the Cross Country course. A unique race open to horses five years old and upwards.
Key Trends:
Irish trained (they have won all seven previous renewals of this race).
Had previous Cross country experience
Preferably run at least twice in the current season
Aged 9-12
First three in the betting
This is a race to watch rather than wager and we are happy to sit it out.
Selection:
No Bet.
4.40 - David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle Grade 2:
The only race at the Festival restricted Mares. It's run over 2 miles four furlongs on the old course and is open to Mares of five years and upwards.
Key Trends:
There have only been five renewals of this race so any trends are in their infancy and could prove unreliable especially since the same horse, Quevega, has won the last four and returns again to defend her crown.
This race really does revolve around the well-being of Quevega who has 16 pounds and upwards in hand over this opposition. She hasn't been since winning a Grade One at Punchestown last April but she came here last season having won the same race and the vibes from her camp are all positive. If that is the case the rest are playing for second and third.
In the 'betting without Quevega market' it could be worth rising a small e/w stake on She Ranks Me.
She Ranks Me: Rated some 23 pounds below the favourite but she wouldn't need to find a lot of improvement on those rated between her and the favourite to get competitive. She has a very admirable attitude and has improved significantly since finishing four lengths behind Une Artist at Wetherby in November. That was over seventeen furlongs and recent improvement has come in her last two races over 20 furlongs in heavy ground at Sandown. This trip, track and ground should pose no problems and she represents a yard who are the only ones to win this race aside from Willie Mullins since it's inception five seasons ago.
Selection: (outlay - 1 pt)
She Ranks Me - 0.5 pts e/w @ 14/1 (w/o favourite market, Bet365)
5.15 - Rewards4Racing Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race):
The R4R Novices' Handicap Chase will be run over 2 miles 4 furlongs 110 yards on the Old Course this year (compared with 21 furlongs on the New Course) and is open to Novice Chasers of five years old and upwards rated 0-140. This upper limit was only introduced two seasons ago and there have only been eight renewals so firm trends are not easy to find. The effect of the 140 upper limit has meant this handicap has become very concertinaed with the difference between bottom and top weight only eight pounds this year.
Key Trends:
Six of the eight winners were aged seven, the other two five and eight.
Has run between 3 and six times over fences.
Making their handicap debut
First or second last time out
Has won over at least 20 furlongs
Only won a couple of times or less over fences
Previous experience in a Festival Novice hurdle race.
Summary:
Like many of the handicaps at the Festival this is fiercely competitive and the limited stats up to now suggest the best angle in this race is to try and find a lightly raced Chaser who hasn't revealed his best form to the handicapper. There are several who satisfy that criteria including Carlito Brigante, Kruzhlinin, Colour Squadron, Vulcanite, Shangani, Fourjacks, The Druid's Nephew, Forgotten Gold, Ohio Gold, Howards Legacy, John's Spirit, Hazy Tom and Arthur's Pass.
Carlito Brigante may find this ground too soft and Hazy Tom and Vulcanite have to prove his stamina over today's trip. Colour Squadron has a fair opening mark but his jumping is a cause for concern and Kruzhlinin is no more than reasonably treated for this handicap debut.
Of the rest the best handicapped could be The Druids Nephew. His form with Hadrian's Approach and last time out against Grandioso at Wincanton is very solid and suggests his opening mark of 135 is a little bit generous. He handles soft ground and has the added the advantage of having experience of the Festival last year, where he ran very well in the Albert Bartlett. He is 2 from 2 at around this sort of trip and his ability to stay further should ensure he gets up the hill effectively.
Shangani and Howard's Legacy represent Venetia Williams and it's the former that looks the more progressive. He has won both his last two handicaps with ease and probably deserves the ten pound rise in the weights he has been given. He could improve up slightly in trip and he will handle the ground. Shangani has revealed his hand in handicap company
a bit more than some of these but such is his rate of improvement he couldn't be ruled out with any confidence
At a price, Forgotten Gold is interesting. He was disappointing last time out but his Trainer was of the opinion that he needed a rest. His previous Novice form has a solid look to it and would suggest that his opening mark here is fair. He handles testing conditions and won't fail for lack of stamina. It could be significant that Paddy Brennan deserts the four time seeking Arthur's Pass to ride Forgotten Gold.
Selections: (outlay - 4 pts)
The Druids Nephew - 2 pts win @ 7/1. (William Hill, Sportingbet)
Forgotten Gold - 1 pt e/w @ 20/1. (Bet365, Stan James, Blue Square)
Antepost Selections already advised:
Sent 06/03/13:
Jewson Novices´ Chase - Thursday 14th March 2013: MODULE - 1 pt win at 9/1 (Betfred NRNB)
Pertemps Final - Thursday 14th March 2013: BOUGGLER - 1 pt e/w at 25/1. (Stan James and Paddy Power, both NRNB)
Sent 28/02/13:
Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 - Thursday 14th March 2013: WONDERFUL CHARM - 1 pt e/w at 25/1 (Betvictor NRNB)
Regards
1.30 - William Hill Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade One:
The traditional curtain raiser to the Festival run over the same distance as the Champion Hurdle. (2 miles 110 yards) and open to Novices four years old and upwards. Runners are required to jump eight flights and the race is noted for it's fast pace.
Key Trends:
Aged 5 or 6
Won at least 50% of their starts over hurdles.
Won last time out
Have run at least twice but no more than six times over hurdles
Have a pre-race RPR of 137 or greater
Ran within the last 45 days
Rated within 12 pounds of RPR top-rated
Previously won or been placed in a Graded race
Irish trained runners have a good record, although the English have taken the last two renewals.
Avoid horses with just one run or were unplaced or fell last time out.
Favourites have a poor record (only three have won in the past 20 years and twelve winners won at double figure prices)
The size of this seasons field (12 runners) is a little disappointing but the quality remains and it still looks a tough race to win. The pace of this race is likely to come from Champagne Fever but it looks likely that Un Atout and Pique Sous will be just off that pace and, as all three represent Willie Mullins, they're unlikely to make it easy for anything else. A lot is made about the need for a horse with an ability to stay further but only four of the last ten winners of this race had run over further than 17 furlongs before running in the Champion Hurdle.
The main protagonists:
My Tent Or Yours: The current favourite after demolishing the field in the Grade Three Betfair Handicap at Newbury last time out. Did it without coming off the bridle from a mark of 149 (now rated 162) and that makes him a serious racehorse under the right conditions. There are notes of caution to observe. The Newbury race wasn't run at a very fast pace and My Tent Or Yours was always well placed. This is likely to be run much differently and he has to prove himself on an undulating track with an uphill finish. Favourites have a poor record in this race and horses coming from a handicap last time out have a terrible strike rate. The negatives may prove fruitless, he is rated six pounds superior to his nearest rival, but there's the nagging doubt that he is a bridle horse who may not relish a battle off it. He could treat these with disdain but there has only been one winner oft his race who has prevailed by more than three lengths in the past ten seasons and four of those winners won by a neck or less, so it's not an easy race to stamp supposed 'class'. He is a keen horse so a faster gallop will help him on that score but at around 2/1 he doesn't, at this stage, appeal as one to be lumping on.
Jezki: Comes here having won all four of his races over hurdles and has a one and half length verdict over Champagne Fever to his name. Couldn't be described as improving at a fast rate but is progressing and showed a smart turn of foot to come away from a Grade One field in Ireland last time out. Trainer says he will be an even better horse on faster ground but yet to race on anything faster than soft, so underfoot condition here shouldn't be an excuse. Appeals from a class angle, being only one of two Grade One winners in the field but his absence since December is a big worry and not the profile of a typical winner of this race. Tony McCoy has presumably chosen the favourite over Jezki but it wouldn't be the first time he has got it wrong. He is a slick jumper and if his respected yard have got him cheery ripe without a recent prep run then he could bust the only major negative he seems to have.
Un Atout: Won both his hurdle races to date with ease but started odds on for both and didn't beat anything of note. Falls into the 'could be anything' category but he will travel faster than he has ever done in this race and his lack of experience and competitive company is a concern. The horse he beat 19 lengths at Naas last time out was only rated 128 and has been thrashed in three races since. For a horse now quoted at a best priced 7/1, he has plenty to prove class wise and has had a longer than ideal break. Only raced on heavy ground over hurdles but soft ground shouldn't pose a problem. Connections are of the opinion he is the real deal but, until he proves it in exulted company such as this, you would be backing more in hope than judgement.
Champagne Fever: Along with Jezki, the only Grade One winner in the field, and yet he trades a bit bigger than Un Atout. He has had two reversals in his four hurdle races and his defeat of Jezki may be hard to reverse. Gives the impression he will be a more effective Chaser and may lack the speed for this test. Won the Champion Bumper in 2012 so he has experience of the course and the ground has come right for him. Can't think that his jockey is going to do anything other than take them along at a good pace, and he could stay there for a long way, but it's not difficult seeing something with a quicker change of gear taking his measure at the business end. Got back on track by winning his Grade One last time out and the runner up has since won at Grade Two level. Certainly has the ability but it may truly come to fruition over further and when tackling fences.
Dodging Bullets: Last season's Triumph Hurdle fourth who was third in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle last time out. That was run at a modest pace which wouldn't have suited and he looks capable of producing a lifetime best in this race if the gallop is honest. Won twice over this C/D this season and has a generally progressive profile. Only rated six pounds below My Tent Or Yours, and has arguably achieved that rating in better company, There is a slight worry about soft ground, and he hasn't been seen for 76 days, but his course and Festival experience will hold him in good stead and if anyone can beat a stat then it's his Trainer. His price looks far more tempting than some of those trading shorter who have more to prove but he does seem to have a mind of his own. Can get on his toes before a race and run too freely when the pace is moderate. However there is nothing wrong with his attitude when he is asked to go about his business.
Puffin Billy: Quickly becoming the forgotten horse of this affair after being put in his place in no uncertain terms by Melodic Rendevous at Exeter last time out but he was found to be lame post race, so he can be forgiven that effort. Won his only two starts easily enough but the last of those came in a four runner Grade Two event and the runner up has done nothing for the form since. He could only beat them as easily as he did so it may be harsh to rate him through his opponents and he is obviously a lot better than we have so far seen. Officially rated 14 pounds below the favourite but that could very well be misleading if he improves again on those earlier efforts. Likely to stay further than this in time and yet to race on ground faster than soft over hurdles, so conditions here will hold no terrors. Not devoid of speed and could be underestimated by the market.
Of the Others: River Maigue has to reverse Cheltenham form with Dodging Bullets and, although that wasn't a truly run race, it wouldn't have suited the latter either, who had to make his own running. Pique Sous ran well here in last season's Champion Bumper but he lacks experience over hurdles and takes a big hike in class. Cheltenian won the Bumper here in 2011 but that form hasn't worked out well. He did run very well on his return from a long absence last time out but he will have to come on significantly for that run if he is to trouble the principals and the softer ground could be a problem. Cause Of Causes was well behind My Tent Or Yours at Newbury last time out and his narrow defeat of Midnight Game before that doesn't look good enough to win this. The rest don't appeal on all known form.
Summary:
My Tent Or Yours is rated the best horse in the race and could run out an easy winner but at prices of 2/1 and less he looks worth taking on. Un Atout has potential but he is taking a huge step up in class and looks under-priced. Dodging Bullets, on a track he likes, looks likely to go well and Champagne Fever may get the run of the race. There is a concern about Jezki's absence coming into this but he has proven his class and showed an impressive turn of foot last time out at Leopardstown. At bigger prices Puffin Billy and Cheltenian are interesting with the former preferred on the ground.
Selections: (Outlay - 2 pts)
Jezki - 1.5 pts win @ 5/1 (Coral, Sportingbet)
Puffin Billy - 0.5 pts win @ 16/1. (Sportingbet)
2.05 - Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1:
The Arkle is a chase open to Novices of five years and upwards run over two miles and is classed as their Championship race. It is normally highly competitive and to win a horse needs to be able to jump well at speed. Many good quality Novices over fences, and previously hurdles, have failed this test.
Key Trends:
Had not run more than five times over fences.
Aged 6 or 7
Have contested and preferably won a Grade One race over fences or hurdles.
Shorter than 11/1.
Had won a novice chase over 16/17 furlongs.
Finished in the first 2 of all completed chase starts
Rated within 12 pounds of top RPR-rated
Pre-race RPR of at least 144
RPR hurdle rating of at least 140.
Off the track for at least 35 days prior to the race, although some have won from shorter breaks..
Won last time out
Trained by Hobbs, Nicholls or King
Favourites, front runners have a poor record
The protagonists:
Simonsig: The horse they all have to beat. Attacks his fences with relish and seems to really enjoy his racing. Rated lower than Overturn, his main market rival, but has huge potential. Slight concern he hasn't been seen for 75 days but there have been no negative vibes emanating from the yard and fitness is rarely a problem with their representatives. Versatile on ground good or softer and won the Neptune over hurdles here last season, so he has track experience. Hasn't made the semblance of a mistake in both his Chases to date and the presence of a few that like to get on with things should set this race up nicely for him. Along with Sprinter Sacre, one of the most solid favourites of the meeting.
Overturn: A credit to his connections and a horse with an admirable attitude. Wears his heart on his sleeve and won't fail for the want of trying but isn't the most natural of jumpers through the air and his front running style could leave him vulnerable to the favourite. May have fared better on faster ground but the recent rain is against him and it looks a tall order to beat the favourite.
Summary:
Simonsig is not a working mans price but he looks one of the better favourites at the meeting. That thought is further enhanced by conditions being against his main market rival.
Selection: (Outlay - 0 pts)
No Bet
2.40 - JLT Speciality Handicap Chase Grade 3:
Traditionally the first handicap run at the Festival. It is run over 3 miles 110 yards on the old course and is open to horses five years old and upwards. It's often used as a trial for the Grand National and it's wise to be aware of horses being potentially with that specific target. This is a demanding test of stamina due to the large field often leading to a fast pace as horses seek a good early position. There have only been two double figure priced winners since the turn of this century but they returned at 50/1 (2007) and 33/1 (2010)
Key Trends:
Aged between 7 and 10.
Won at three miles or more
Carrying 10-12 or less. (only one winner has carried more than 11 stone to victory since 2000 and that came in 2011 (11-2))
Won a handicap over fences at Class 3 or better.
Placed in either or both their last two starts.
Officially rated between 127 and 143.
Have run at least seven times in the NH Sphere
Last run between 3 and 7 weeks ago
Run no more than four times that season.
Run in chases between 5 and 11 times in their career.
Placed at worst in a previous Cheltenham Festival.
Summary:
The handicaps at the Festival are very competitive and contain too many potential winners to list in detail. This is a very competitive 24 runner handicap but the two that appeal most are Loch Ba and Monkerty Tunkerty. Our Mick was tempting but seven year olds carrying more than eleven stone outside Novice handicap company have a poor record in Festival Handicaps so, at his current price he is reluctantly passed over.
Loch Ba: Has looked an improved performer this season and was very impressive when running out a comfortable winner last time out at Newbury. The handicapper has taken note and raised him 12 pounds but the jumping problems which blighted his early Chasing career seemed to have been eradicated and he has plenty of scope for improvement. He will need it because this is a marked rise in class and he has the disadvantage of racing on this track for the first time. However he appears a more mature horse this season and he will benefit from the number of pacesetters in this field. Whether he can hold his jumping together against better horses going faster is a question he has to answer but trip and ground are fine and he gets in here off a nice racing weight. Goes well fresh so a 55 day break, while longer than ideal, should be of little consequence to him.
Munkerty Tunkerty: Into veteran status now but relatively unexposed under rules and has a terrific win and place record both under rules and in the Pointing field. Versatile regarding ground conditions and only put up five pounds for winning at Doncaster last time out. Reportedly struck into when disappointing behind Loch Ba on his penultimate start but that followed a facile win at Wincanton on Boxing Day. Travels and stays well so there is room for more improvement given this stiffer track. Another who has the disadvantage of not racing here before but his jumping is rarely a cause for concern and it's not difficult to see him enjoying this experience. Versatile tactically and could benefit from being held up in what looks likely to be a truly run affair.
Selections: (Outlay - 4 pts)
Loch Ba - 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 (Betfred, Betvictor, Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
Monkerty Tunkerty - 1 pt e/w @ 18/1. (Berfred, Totesport, 1/4 odds first 5)
3.20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1:
The first of the four major races at the Festival, the Champion Hurdle is run over 2 miles 110 yards on the old course, It's open to horses of five years old and upwards.
Key Trends:
Only one five year old has won this race in the last ten years (five have been placed) and no horse ten or older has won (one placed). Six year olds have won it twice, seven year olds four times, eight year olds twice and nine year olds once.
All the past ten winners finished in the first three last time out. Seven were winners, two were second and one finished third.
Rock On Ruby (77 days) last season was the first horse in the past ten years to come here having not run between 23 and 51 days of the race.
Of those that had a rating (two didn't) seven of the eight were rated in the 160's.
All the past ten winners had won that season and eight of them had made the racecourse at least three times in that campaign.
The main Protagonists:
Hurricane Fly: Connections said to be happier with him this season than they were last year and he has had no problem adding another four Grade One victories to his profile since finishing third in this race last season. However he only faced a total of 17 opponents in those four outings and he was long odds on for all of them. The ground has come in his favour but it's very difficult to gauge if he is back to his best when he keeps beating very small fields in testing ground. Connections are very bullish, and they should know, and there are enough doubts about several of his opponents to think he can be only the second horse to regain the Champion Hurdle Crown. The lack of obvious pace is also likely to play into the handles of a horse who travels and quickens well.
Rock On Ruby: Last year's winner and, like last season, comes here on the back of just two prep runs. Fitted with the first time blinkers, which is a bit surprising, and the worry is they could light him up. The recent rain has not done him any favours because his seven victories have all come on ground no worse than G/S. Last season's victory was no fluke but there are a few more doubts about him this time round. If he handles the ground, takes to the headgear and someone put's a decent pace to the race then a repeat victory could be a distinct possibility, but they're big if's when you're trading at a best priced 5/1.
Zarkander: Won all three of his starts this season but the manner of his victories suggest a stiffer test would be ideal. Has an admirable attitude but grinds out his races and may need to try and put his stamina to good use if he is to run the finish out of some of these. The problem he has that, if he does, it will suit horses like Rock On Ruby, Grandouet and Countrywide Flame. For all those doubts he is still a major player but it may take all his jockey's acumen to get him home in front.
Grandouet: Reports of an injury scare and an interrupted preparation has seen his price drift in recent weeks but his Trainer gave an upbeat statement about his well-being yesterday morning so he may run better than the doom mongers are predicting. That interruption has, however, kept him off the race track since December so it's a far from ideal run up to a Championship race. He was conceding Zarkander four pounds when beaten two lengths by him in heavy ground over 17 furlongs here when last seen and, not for the first time, didn't come up the hill as well as he travelled onto it. That was in heavy ground so, although soft ground is not ideal, it gives him a better opportunity to get home, as does the slightly shorter trip. He is a supreme traveller and has a progressive profile so, if all is well with him, his price is beginning to look attractive.
Binocular: Beaten five lengths by Hurricane Fly on his only start this season in January but he has always improved on his second start of a campaign and it will probably be a similar story here. He ran better than his finishing position suggests in last season's renewal where, although beaten six and half lengths by Rock On Ruby, he nearly uprooted the final hurdle. It's asking a lot for him to become Champion again at the age of nine but it's exactly what's being asked of Hurricane Fly and Binocular hasn't run a bad race here. Some of his form last season was up there with his best but he isn't getting any better at his age and probably needs a few of these to under-perform to make his present felt
Of the others: Countrywide Flame could outrun his odds if he gets a decent pace to aim at but the ground has gone against Cinders And Ashes. Khyber Kim is now an eleven year old and vulnerable to younger legs and Balder Success doesn't look good enough.
Summary:
If his connections are right about Hurricane Fly being back to his best then he should win this. Big runs at decent prices from Binocular and Countrywide Flame wouldn't be the biggest surprise and Rock On Ruby and Zarkander have done more than enough to advertise their credentials. However, despite previous negative vibes, an interrupted preparation and ground softer than ideal, Grandouet has drifted out to a tempting price.
Selection: (Outlay - 2 pts)
Grandouet - 1 pt e/w @ 9/1 (Generally available)
4.00 - Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase)
Run over 3 miles 7 furlongs on the Cross Country course. A unique race open to horses five years old and upwards.
Key Trends:
Irish trained (they have won all seven previous renewals of this race).
Had previous Cross country experience
Preferably run at least twice in the current season
Aged 9-12
First three in the betting
This is a race to watch rather than wager and we are happy to sit it out.
Selection:
No Bet.
4.40 - David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle Grade 2:
The only race at the Festival restricted Mares. It's run over 2 miles four furlongs on the old course and is open to Mares of five years and upwards.
Key Trends:
There have only been five renewals of this race so any trends are in their infancy and could prove unreliable especially since the same horse, Quevega, has won the last four and returns again to defend her crown.
This race really does revolve around the well-being of Quevega who has 16 pounds and upwards in hand over this opposition. She hasn't been since winning a Grade One at Punchestown last April but she came here last season having won the same race and the vibes from her camp are all positive. If that is the case the rest are playing for second and third.
In the 'betting without Quevega market' it could be worth rising a small e/w stake on She Ranks Me.
She Ranks Me: Rated some 23 pounds below the favourite but she wouldn't need to find a lot of improvement on those rated between her and the favourite to get competitive. She has a very admirable attitude and has improved significantly since finishing four lengths behind Une Artist at Wetherby in November. That was over seventeen furlongs and recent improvement has come in her last two races over 20 furlongs in heavy ground at Sandown. This trip, track and ground should pose no problems and she represents a yard who are the only ones to win this race aside from Willie Mullins since it's inception five seasons ago.
Selection: (outlay - 1 pt)
She Ranks Me - 0.5 pts e/w @ 14/1 (w/o favourite market, Bet365)
5.15 - Rewards4Racing Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race):
The R4R Novices' Handicap Chase will be run over 2 miles 4 furlongs 110 yards on the Old Course this year (compared with 21 furlongs on the New Course) and is open to Novice Chasers of five years old and upwards rated 0-140. This upper limit was only introduced two seasons ago and there have only been eight renewals so firm trends are not easy to find. The effect of the 140 upper limit has meant this handicap has become very concertinaed with the difference between bottom and top weight only eight pounds this year.
Key Trends:
Six of the eight winners were aged seven, the other two five and eight.
Has run between 3 and six times over fences.
Making their handicap debut
First or second last time out
Has won over at least 20 furlongs
Only won a couple of times or less over fences
Previous experience in a Festival Novice hurdle race.
Summary:
Like many of the handicaps at the Festival this is fiercely competitive and the limited stats up to now suggest the best angle in this race is to try and find a lightly raced Chaser who hasn't revealed his best form to the handicapper. There are several who satisfy that criteria including Carlito Brigante, Kruzhlinin, Colour Squadron, Vulcanite, Shangani, Fourjacks, The Druid's Nephew, Forgotten Gold, Ohio Gold, Howards Legacy, John's Spirit, Hazy Tom and Arthur's Pass.
Carlito Brigante may find this ground too soft and Hazy Tom and Vulcanite have to prove his stamina over today's trip. Colour Squadron has a fair opening mark but his jumping is a cause for concern and Kruzhlinin is no more than reasonably treated for this handicap debut.
Of the rest the best handicapped could be The Druids Nephew. His form with Hadrian's Approach and last time out against Grandioso at Wincanton is very solid and suggests his opening mark of 135 is a little bit generous. He handles soft ground and has the added the advantage of having experience of the Festival last year, where he ran very well in the Albert Bartlett. He is 2 from 2 at around this sort of trip and his ability to stay further should ensure he gets up the hill effectively.
Shangani and Howard's Legacy represent Venetia Williams and it's the former that looks the more progressive. He has won both his last two handicaps with ease and probably deserves the ten pound rise in the weights he has been given. He could improve up slightly in trip and he will handle the ground. Shangani has revealed his hand in handicap company
a bit more than some of these but such is his rate of improvement he couldn't be ruled out with any confidence
At a price, Forgotten Gold is interesting. He was disappointing last time out but his Trainer was of the opinion that he needed a rest. His previous Novice form has a solid look to it and would suggest that his opening mark here is fair. He handles testing conditions and won't fail for lack of stamina. It could be significant that Paddy Brennan deserts the four time seeking Arthur's Pass to ride Forgotten Gold.
Selections: (outlay - 4 pts)
The Druids Nephew - 2 pts win @ 7/1. (William Hill, Sportingbet)
Forgotten Gold - 1 pt e/w @ 20/1. (Bet365, Stan James, Blue Square)
Antepost Selections already advised:
Sent 06/03/13:
Jewson Novices´ Chase - Thursday 14th March 2013: MODULE - 1 pt win at 9/1 (Betfred NRNB)
Pertemps Final - Thursday 14th March 2013: BOUGGLER - 1 pt e/w at 25/1. (Stan James and Paddy Power, both NRNB)
Sent 28/02/13:
Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 - Thursday 14th March 2013: WONDERFUL CHARM - 1 pt e/w at 25/1 (Betvictor NRNB)
Regards
Comments
Ive backed some of these, so lets hope you know your onions !!