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is the bet size too big to risk?
craigcu12
Member Posts: 3,960
| andymis | Small blind | 20.00 | 20.00 | 5220.00 | |
| POKERTREV | Big blind | 40.00 | 60.00 | 960.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| tiddley123 | Fold | ||||
| kent12 | Call | 40.00 | 100.00 | 3000.00 | |
| Herbs6 | Call | 40.00 | 140.00 | 3085.00 | |
| craigcu12 | Raise | 120.00 | 260.00 | 2740.00 | |
| andymis | Call | 100.00 | 360.00 | 5120.00 | |
| POKERTREV | Fold | ||||
| kent12 | Call | 80.00 | 440.00 | 2920.00 | |
| Herbs6 | Call | 80.00 | 520.00 | 3005.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| andymis | Check | ||||
| kent12 | Check | ||||
| Herbs6 | Check | ||||
| craigcu12 | Bet | 320.00 | 840.00 | 2420.00 | |
| andymis | Fold | ||||
| kent12 | Fold | ||||
| Herbs6 | Call | 320.00 | 1160.00 | 2685.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| Herbs6 | Check | ||||
| craigcu12 | Bet | 400.00 | 1560.00 | 2020.00 | |
| Herbs6 | Call | 400.00 | 1960.00 | 2285.00 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| Herbs6 | Bet | 2120.00 | 4080.00 | 165.00 | |
Comments
The flop bet's not too bad. Maybe we could bet a little bigger since we've gone four-ways to the flop.
The turn is interesting. What is the purpose of your bet here? After being called four-handed on the flop, you've got to think there's a decent chance that your opponent had a flush draw, so we could be betting into a hand that's crushing us. If he doesn't have the flush and has Ax or something similar, it's tough for him to call us down after this turn hits. If he has one club, we're offering him a price of just short of 4:1 on his draw, so we're offering him the correct odds to call and outdraw us.
What do we do if he shoves on this turn? Are we always beat?
I think checking this turn, given stack sizes, is best. We can bluff catch on the river or fire a value bet if it's checked to us. It's tough for us to get two streets of value and we can put ourselves in really difficult situations by betting the turn. We also don't know what we want to happen when we bet the turn, which is a problem.
As played, on the river we have to ask ourselves how often this guy can be bluffing or value-shoving worse hands. We need him to be doing so more than 1/3 times for this call to be profitable. Against almost every opponent, this should be a fold. His line just looks so typical of a made flush, desperate not to risk checking it to you on the river.
what i thought with the turn is if i check back and he might use that as a chance to bluff with a shove on the river also if another A or Q came then i could have got more value with my FH. if he did then do a reraise i would maybe call a min raise but if he shoved i would then feel the need to fold the turn as check raise do show much more sign of a good hand then betting right away.
The possibility that our opponent may bluff the river is a really good reason to check the turn, though. It's not something to be afraid of because we have such a good hand. If we can give our opponent the chance to bet on the river with a weaker hand, then we should be happy to do that. If he does bluff the river, it's likely to be for more than 1/3 of the pot, too, so we make more from this than betting 400 on the turn. If he checks a non-club river we can make a much more comfortable value bet and, having shown weakness on the turn, we're more likely to be called by hands we're beating.
The chance of making a full house with on the river is just 9%. We mustn't be thinking about building the pot for that 9% of the time. If we want to build the pot on the turn it must be because we think our two-pair is already the best hand. If we think we're behind but are building the pot for the 9% of occasions that we make our full house, then we're actually building the pot for our opponent's benefit 91% of the time.
I agree that a check-raise on the turn would look very strong from our opponent and we would proobably have to fold to it. So why do we want to give them the opportunity to do this? Our sizing here of around 1/3 pot is also a problem because it may leave our opponent with the impression of having fold equity - It looks like we may be betting an amount we're willing to fold. Knowing this is the case can lead us to level ourselves into making a poor call because we convince ourselves that our opponent can be bluffing.