bad run

jdsallstar

ok so a bit of background:

I play solely DYM's and have achieved an roi (at all levels i've played) of between 9-17% (60-67% ITM). I am currently playing £5 tables until my bankroll is big enough for £10 tables (well that's the plan anyway). Yesterday i went on a bad run winning only 4 of the 18 I played. I also  experienced a similar bad run when I initially moved to £5 tables but never experienced such bad runs on lower tables. Of the games I lost yesterday, I bubbled in 8 of them, ran into Aces with KK (all in preflop) in another and in the remainder just the usual of losing races, 60:40's, outkickered etc. It culminated in me losing the last 8 in a row before I decided to call it a day.

My confidence has now taken a hit and wondering what are everyones thoughts when it comes to how I should go forward:

1. Take a break for day or two when bad run is out of system (normally play about 10-15 tables a day)
2. Play through it and try not to change play
3. drop down to £3 tables where I have an ROI of 17% to build confidence again

Finally I've played 175 games at the £3 tables (with an ROI of 17%) and 250 games at the £5 tables (with an ROI of 9%). Should i drop down to the £3 tables permanently as my ROI is so much better or are my sample sizes still not large enough to draw enough conclusions from? i should note that before yesterdays bad run my ROI for £5 tables was just under 13%. I've calculated my profit per table as 51p (£5 tables) and 54p (£3 tables).

I think I know what i'm leaning towards but interested to hear views.

sighcall

In Response to bad run:

ok so bit of background: Play solely DYM's and have an roi at all levels i've played of between 60-67%. currently playing £5 tables untl bankroll is big enough for £10 tables (well thats the plan anyway). Yesterday i went on a bad run winning only 4 of the 18 i played. I had a similar bad run when i initially moved to £5 tables but never experienced such bad runs on lower tables. Of the ones i lost yesterday i bubbled in 8 and ran into AA with KK all-in pre in another. it culminated in me losing the last 8 in a row before i decided to call it a day. Confidence has now taken a hit and wondering what are everyones thought when it comes to going forward would be: 1. Take a break for day or two when bad run is out of system (normally play about 10-15 tables a day) 2. Play through it and try not to change play 3. drop down to £3 tables where I have an ROI of 17% to build confidence again Finally I've played 175 games at the £3 tables (with an ROI of 17%) and 250 games at the £5 tables (with an ROI of 9%). Should i drop down to the £3 tables permanently as my ROI is so much better or are my sample sizes still not large enough to draw enough conclusions from? i should note that before yesterdays bad run my ROI for £5 tables was just under 13%. I've calculated my profit per table as 51p (£5 tables) and 54p (£3 tables). I think I know what i'm leaning towards but interested to hear views.
Posted by jdsallstar

Is this a misstype? You said 60-67% and then said 13% later??

I would take a break for a few days and drop down to £3, in fact you will still be winning as much per hour at this level just less C4P.

take a couple of days break is my advice. But its player dependant.

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: bad run:

In Response to bad run : Is this a misstype? You said 60-67% and then said 13% later?? I would take a break for a few days and drop down to £3, in fact you will still be winning as much per hour at this level just less C4P. take a couple of days break is my advice. But its player dependant.
Posted by sighcall

It was a mistype - corrected now cheers.

Lambert180

The sample sizes are no where near big enough. Get at least 1000 games in at each level and you'd have a better idea. For one, a 17% ROI @ DYMs is never going to be sustainable, so I can tell you that is definitely not a true reflection of a long term ROI, but unless you ran like god for them 175 games, it means you're probably easily good enough to beat them.

You'll experiene downswings whatever game and whatever stakes you play, so if you are still playing your A game, and still have a big enough BR to handle it, then stick to £5s imo. FWIW, I'd want about £150+ to play £5s.

Look at your hands, and if you genuinely think you played well and were just getting unlucky, all the more reason to stay where you are. Sometimes though we're angry at the time, we think we're just getting unlucky, then we look at our HHs the next day and just think 'omg what on earth was I doing!!'.

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: bad run:

The sample sizes are no where near big enough. Get at least 1000 games in at each level and you'd have a better idea. For one, a 17% ROI @ DYMs is never going to be sustainable, so I can tell you that is definitely not a true reflection of a long term ROI, but unless you ran like god for them 175 games, it means you're probably easily good enough to beat them. You'll experiene downswings whatever game and whatever stakes you play, so if you are still playing your A game, and still have a big enough BR to handle it, then stick to £5s imo. FWIW, I'd want about £150+ to play £5s. Look at your hands, and if you genuinely think you played well and were just getting unlucky, all the more reason to stay where you are. Sometimes though we're angry at the time, we think we're just getting unlucky, then we look at our HHs the next day and just think 'omg what on earth was I doing!!'.
Posted by Lambert180

thanks for that lambert. my bankroll rule at the moment is 30 buyins plus 10 attempts (or 40 total lol). so for £5 i waited until i had £200 (£150 + £50). idea is i play with my 10 attempts but if I fail and bankroll falls to £150 (30 buy ins) I move back to lower buy ins until reach £200 again. Bankroll target for £10's was therefore £400 and was sitting at £370 before the wheels fell off yesterday lol

re sustainable roi's and sample sizes - yeah i thought i read somewhere 1000 was the number required to get a reasonably fair reflection of stats. I dont think I played 100% my best yesterday - especially as the day wore on but dont feel i played badly as such. 1 or two of the defeats were bad calls but their was logic to the calls and on another day could have been good 1s (if you know what i mean).

my plan tonight s to have a good review of hand histories to see if I can notice any trends. the bad run has just shaken me a bit because its the 2nd i've had at the £5 tables, i never really experienced them before in lower games and it's the longest winless streak i've had.

Jac35

As you know i've played a lot of these and i would say that you are one of the better players i've come across.

Were you making the right decisions and it just not going your way?
I suspect that probably was the case.
You've had a fantastic start and this is your first slight downswing.
Realistically your early roi is not sustainable in my opinion and anything less than that feels to you like a failure
It sounds boring i know but it is all about the longterm with these. Profits are gradual unlike playing mtts when every so often you will bink something and win big.

If your confidence has been knocked a bit then why not drop back to 3's for a short while?
Your return is very similar.

To give you an idea of what i mean by long term. As you're aware my stats are ok at these. I won a lot in my first 3000 games  and then totally plateaued for my next 500.
Was i playing any worse?
 Not really, just variance kicking in.

It's easy to doubt yourself when you run bad.
Don't.
You're a good player and will win long term, i'm sure of that
Good luck


Quick edit : i was playing a couple as i posted this.
On bubble in 1st one, i'm 3rd in chips, 4th isn't desperate.
Big stack shoves in sb, i have aces in bb - i don't beat j4

Bubble in next all similar chips, blinds high
i'm sb with ace 10, folds to me, i shove, bb has ace j - i don't win
Did i make a mistake in either?
No, these things are always going to happen.
Next game

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: bad run:

As you know i've played a lot of these and i would say that you are one of the better players i've come across. Were you making the right decisions and it just not going your way? I suspect that probably was the case. You've had a fantastic start and this is your first slight downswing. Realistically your early roi is not sustainable in my opinion and anything less than that feels to you like a failure It sounds boring i know but it is all about the longterm with these. Profits are gradual unlike playing mtts when every so often you will bink something and win big. If your confidence has been knocked a bit then why not drop back to 3's for a short while? Your return is very similar. To give you an idea of what i mean by long term. As you're aware my stats are ok at these. I won a lot in my first 3000 games  and then totally plateaued for my next 500. Was i playing any worse?  Not really, just variance kicking in. It's easy to doubt yourself when you run bad. Don't. You're a good player and will win long term, i'm sure of that Good luck Quick edit : i was playing a couple as i posted this. On bubble in 1st one, i'm 3rd in chips, 4th isn't desperate. Big stack shoves in sb, i have aces in bb - i don't beat j4 Bubble in next all similar chips, blinds high i'm sb with ace 10, folds to me, i shove, bb has ace j - i don't win Did i make a mistake in either? No, these things are always going to happen. Next game
Posted by Jac35

cheers Jac. The opinion of someone with a lot of experience in these is very much appreciated. I made a few wrong decisions-mainly trying to follow through steals when i really should have backed down sooner. Although again that's kind of my style i.e. bet the same whether hit or missed so I get a good payoff when i do hit and people never know whether I'm making moves or not. I just think my timing was a bit off yesterday. I began questioning and perhaps changing my normal play because of the bad run. I know I shouldnt do this but i think the fear of my aces getting beat by trips, the 4 6 on big blind calling my big raise preflop with AK and calling me down hitting their 4 on the river etc I think began to play on my mind a bit.

Im not sure you're totally blameless in all this by the way. i'm pretty certain at one of the tables we were on together the day before my bad run that my stats were looking good. I also went on a downturn the first time we spoke and you mentioned my stats (month or so ago). So thinking about it now it is really just all your fault  

Going to load up two £5's later and if things dont go my way in them I'll drop down for a few at £3. So if you end up at my table dont mention my stats lol

jdsallstar

for anyone who cares. played 6 £5 dyms tonight won 5 and came 4th in the other. in the one i came 4th in got short stacked (1200 and 400 blinds) and shoved in sb with q9 bb called with kj. 

In fairness though some of the games were so soft it didnt take much skill to get itm. in two of them two players were already out before the end of level 2. so ABC poker was enough to get the wins really. anyway it's nice to see a profit for a session again and thanks Jac, Lambert and sigh for the advice.

Lambert180

Well done, always nice to bag a decent winning session after a nasty one.