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FACTS

neluckneluck Member Posts: 28
edited March 2013 in Brags, Beats and Variance
in last 30 tourneys when im all in when ahead ive only won 6 of these ,this means u only win 20 % of hands when ur ahead, surely this is not right ,the river card is killing people far too many times.

best regards

 neluck

MOD edited to remove references that break forum rules

Comments

  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited March 2013
    maybe you should have gave your name "good luck"
  • SolarCarroSolarCarro Member Posts: 2,273
    edited March 2013
    Your sample size of 30 is ridiculous

    If you were ahead 30 times which I doubt and say 20 of these were standard flips 52/48 etc and say the other 10 were 60/40 then you would expect 16 wins and 14 losses

    You are 6 from 30, come back with stats from your next 3000 and lets see if it evens out
  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited March 2013
    must be so farking wonderful to win 6


    teach me
  • TommyDTommyD Member Posts: 4,389
    edited March 2013
    In Response to FACTS:
    in last 30 tourneys when im all in when ahead ive only won 6 of these ,this means u only win 20 % of hands when ur ahead, surely this is not right ,the river card is killing people far too many times. best regards  neluck MOD edited to remove references that break forum rules
    Posted by neluck
    1)  Your number are confusing.  Are you saying your last 30 exit hands and that you got it in ahead on every single one?  And I take it you won the 6 tournies.  Nope can't make head nor tail of your numbers.

    2)  Sample size too small.  I play more tournies than 30 cross sites on a decent Sunday and I can tell you those numbers are nothing, I've ran worse than that without breaking a sweat.

    3)  Good luck at the tables.
  • LARSON7LARSON7 Member Posts: 4,494
    edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: FACTS:
    maybe you should have gave your name "good luck"
    Posted by The_Don90
    or nae luck lol
  • _ARAZI__ARAZI_ Member Posts: 549
    edited March 2013
    This game is all about timing.

    Neluck currently 2nd in 2k BH with 7 heads taken lol

    You will have to change those stats again mate :)
  • clubhammerclubhammer Member Posts: 109
    edited March 2013
    lol he just got shoved on with Ak by 88 and won by hitting the A
  • SlykllistSlykllist Member Posts: 2,888
    edited March 2013

    OK, I'm going to take a deep breath and try to be constructive....

    So the only hands ur including in this sample are the 30 times you got it all in?

    So we're to assume that during the whole of this time there were no examples of you holding with the best hand and winning pots?

    It's a natural fact of the game that when we bust from tournies we often suffer bad beats, we're not generally going to risk our tournaments if we think we're behind????  So to only reference the sample of hands where you get all you chips in and get sucked out is ridiculous.  It also doesn't give any indication of how you played the hands to end up in these situations.

    It's an absolute fact that if ur seeing a regular pattern of losses that you need to work on something in your game that needs changing and not blame the poker site you're playing on.

  • calcalfoldcalcalfold Member Posts: 978
    edited March 2013
    "this means u only win 20 % of hands when ur ahead, surely this is not right ,the river card is killing people far too many times."

    Thats not a fact, its an opinion, and a bad one at that.

    And why is it people that write "u" instead of "you", and "ur" instead of "you are", always seem to suffer the most bad beats :p
  • bearlytherbearlyther Member Posts: 1,757
    edited March 2013
    try play around 10,000 mtts to know what varience is 
  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH Member Posts: 17,929
    edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: FACTS:
    This game is all about timing. Neluck currently 2nd in 2k BH with 7 heads taken lol You will have to change those stats again mate :)
    Posted by _ARAZI_

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited March 2013
    I thought this was going to be some rafa benitez like rant
  • gherkingherkin Member Posts: 11
    edited March 2013
    Pretty vague OP. 

    The one thing you can be sure about is that it will even itself out over a larger sample size. Law of large numbers innit.

    The give away is in "expected outcome". If you aint got the nuts beware.

    I get more annoyed at making bad decisions than I do about getting bad beats. If you're making the right decisions over time you will get your reward. 
  • tapewormtapeworm Member Posts: 432
    edited March 2013
    I have missed this.....
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