Yo. Thoughts on my line here plz.
Villain plays a zillion tables, I've not logged many hands with him as he is relatively new to the site and I've not played much cash recently.
When I have seen him, he's played relatively straight forward with some weird/random stuff thrown in. Find myself levelling myself quite often against him and maybe giving him too much credit for being able to take weird lines, which he does do, but not sure how often.
He's stacked me twice in this session already, once bvb where I flopped top set v his 2 overs & fd and we got it in otf.
2nd time I peeled 66 and gave him 3 streets on a 742J2 board.
--------------
I 3b pre because there's no way he's ever folding any of his opening range this deep. And obv AJ plays v well against his opening range. No brainer.
I should fold to the 4b, but we're deep and I'm in positon.
It's prob a polarised 4b range, the nut hands QQ/KK/AA/AK then some random 79s, 45s, J9s type stuff thrown in.
Obv once I call pre I can't fold a pair/gutshot/bdnfd for 1 bet. I could be good, and if not I could get there, and if not theres alot of scare cards for stuff like AK/QQ even AA.
His turn sizing is quite small, I'd expect him to bet wayyyyyy more w/ value hands like AA/AQ/sets probably AK too. The hand where he stacked me w/ AA /> 66 his bets were obv purely for value and a much bigger % of the pot on all 3 streets.
River is where it gets interesting.
I'm now certain he has some kind of hand he wants to get to showdown with.
I'm ruling out all sets and AQ, he would value bet a flush bigger otr.
Think his range is now very weak, probably limited to AA and AK only. There's a chance he's taken this line with a very random hand, some weak 3 street bluff with the suited connectors I mentioned earlier but that's probably me levelling myself again and giving him too much credit.
So I'm getting 9/1 on the river, with a bluff catcher against a guy who has a very weak value range.
I'm probably never good.
Is this a good spot to turn t'old hand into a bluff, close my eyes, click all in and hope?
Then post it in the clinic if/when I get snapped off and end up looking like an i diot again?
All thoughts appreciated. ty.
Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
---|
Ms_Chips | Small blind | | £0.10 | £0.10 | £20.41 |
onthemoon | Big blind | | £0.20 | £0.30 | £26.48 |
| Your hole cards | | | | |
elbows7 | Fold | | | | |
xxx | Raise | | £0.60 | £0.90 | £72.40 |
andrew1961 | Fold | | | | |
DOHHHHHHH | Raise | | £1.80 | £2.70 | £47.00 |
Ms_Chips | Fold | | | | |
onthemoon | Fold | | | | |
xxx | Raise | | £4.80 | £7.50 | £67.60 |
DOHHHHHHH | Call | | £3.60 | £11.10 | £43.40 |
Flop |
---|
| | | | | |
xxx | Bet | | £5.55 | £16.65 | £62.05 |
DOHHHHHHH | Call | | £5.55 | £22.20 | £37.85 |
Turn |
---|
| | | | | |
xxx | Bet | | £5.20 | £27.40 | £56.85 |
DOHHHHHHH | Call | | £5.20 | £32.60 | £32.65 |
River |
---|
| | | | | |
xxx | Bet | | £5.20 | £37.80 | £51.65 |
DOHHHHHHH | All-in | | £32.65 | £70.45 | £0.00 |
xxx |
Comments
1)trying to induce/trap a crazy play from you with something massive e.g. Ks, is he competent enough to be thinking along them lines?
2) Uncomofortable with his hand on the board and seemingly making it very obvious that he doesn't feel confident with value betting his hand big so therefore definetly an oppurtunity to pounce on his weakness on the river.
Considering he has 4bet and you say he has a polarized 4bet range i reckon if he was going crazy with suited connectors he would try to look alot stronger by betting the streets in a stronger manner, when we bluff we rarely make ourselves look so weak along the streets i don't think. I think the 4bet and then sizing if it is part of his monster 4bet range looks very much like AK or Qs.
If he has AK he probably is wanting to get value but without being put to a horrible decision after you flat, thinking you could easily of flopped a set with your flatting range to a 4bet e.g. 10s, Js. In which case it depends whether you think oppo is capable of calling the jam on the river with one pair/ can give you credit for a big hand or is likely to look you up, because of history and how agressive he thinks you are.
I think if he had As he would bet the turn bigger as it is a blank and you could be drawing after flatting the flop, Qs would make sense with cbetting the flop with a decent hand and open ender, then betting turn weaker because not sure if ahead when called and havnt hit draw but dont want to give up the lead. The finally the weak river bet again because he knows you will definetly pounce on any check. I bet he ended up hero calling you with AK or Qs lol
But yeah personally i would rather jam here than call off despite the odds your getting in, if he has induced it with a set then i guess just notes taken that he will mix up his sizing when he flops huge and move on to next hand.
"...he's played relatively straight forward with some weird/random stuff thrown in." - So not particularly straightforward?
"And obv AJ plays v well against his opening range." - Are you sure? He's playing "a zillion tables" and the only hands you've mentioned he's gone with are AA and a flopped flush draw with two overs, suggesting he's playing big hands. You're probably right about this but have you seen the hands to confirm it?
"It's prob a polarised 4b range, the nut hands QQ/KK/AA/AK then some random 79s, 45s, J9s type stuff thrown in." - Not straightforward, then. I think perhaps this could be levelling though, unless you have examples. You haven't suggested you have seen examples of this and I don't think we can just assume that he can have those weaker hands.
I definitely prefer 3-betting to calling pre-flop, as long as we think he can call with worse - preferably fit or folding on the flop - and doesn't just fold worse and 4-bet better. If you're right and he can 4-bet worse than AJ, that's a good reason not to 3-bet and take a flop in position, in my opinion. After we face the 4-bet, I think we should just fold. I don't think we want to be putting ourselves in the position of floating a flop with just AJ-high after a c-bet from a pre-flop 4-better. Playing fit or fold on the flop is not likely to be a good idea either, especially if we're uncertain of his 4-betting range.
As it is, on the flop I think we have to question what sort of hand he realistically c-bets after you've called his pre-flop 4-bet and which hands do we represent when we flat? It's a sickeningly wet board and our opponent has shown lots of strength. Either this board smacks his range, so he pays a raise, or it terrifies him into not betting again. Which big hands do we not raise this flop with? When we flat, I think we always rep a hand like the one we have.
We're very likely to be behind on this flop but having called pre-flop I suppose it is tough to fold. I'm just not sure what the plan's going to be on the turn because you seem to be unsure of whether you want scare cards or not. Are you calling thinking you're ahead or are you floating with what you think is the worst hand, hoping to pick up equity or bluffing opportunities? Surely we can't plan to raise a turn bet as a bluff, because a bet's likely to be pot-committing if it comes, so we're hoping he checks. However, if he checks he's probably giving up with worse than our AJ (so we don't need to bluff) or giving us the chance to bet or pot-controlling with better. I'm not sure which better hands just check-fold to one bet and we don't have the stack to fire twice.
After that... I'm not sure. It's weird. I'd consider calling him down when he makes it so cheap just to see his hand. That information could be valuable. I might comment again on this thread because post-flop I'm pretty confused by it. It looks like it's weak but that doesn't mean he will fold if he knows how weak it looks. I'd agree that it definitely should be a marginal made hand because air doesn't bet so small or just gives up versus your range and monster hands would want to get it in.
I will say that I'm not sure which hands you're representing througout this hand when you decide to raise the river. You seem to change your mind repeatedly on which hand you want to represent. By the river you seem to want to rep the flush but which hands do you call 4-bets with pre-flop that fit with the flush and don't include the King or Jack of clubs? The only hand you rep consistently is probably AQ of clubs but wouldn't you raise the flop with that before clubs can hit on a board that should help the range he's repping?
I dunno... lots of thoughts on this hand and they don't all agree with each other.
Haven't read past the first few paragraphs yet but thought it important for the future of the thread to clarify my notes for you and others who might wanna post.
Some of your notes are confusing and seem contradictory: "...he's played relatively straight forward with some weird/random stuff thrown in.
In general he is very abc/straight forward. He is quite loose pre flop both with opening and peeling ranges. He likes flops, I wouldn't describe him as a pre flop nit at all.
What I mean is most of the time he's v solid but occasionally he gets out of line, these are rare, I dunno how rare.
But I agree maybe straightforward is the wrong word. He plays tonnes, so he must go through periods of tilt/frustration and maybe this is where the occasional 'weird' lines come from.
Ugh my reads suckkkkk.
And obv AJ plays v well against his opening range." - Are you sure?
Can v confidently say he opens and peels 3bets wide, especially this deep.
It's prob a polarised 4b range, the nut hands QQ/KK/AA/AK then some random 79s, 45s, J9s type stuff thrown in."
Yah I agree, levelling myself again here, range v much weighted towards the nut hands, as you would expect when a reg 4bets 250xbb deep.
As for my post; don't thank me for it. At the start I seemed to have a particular viewpoint in mind. By the end I might have lost the plot a little. I'm not sure it makes much sense. Oh well. My doctors say I'm making progress.
Which hands we're repping are those which our opponent thinks we have. Most people raise the flop with those strong hands, so that's what he thinks you would do. He is, after all, representing a very strong range himself. There's no reason for him to think that you'd think he'd fold to a raise. If you see what I'm saying.
Besides, I'm not sure we really should flat that flop if we have a monster and we make our opponent's range narrow. Why let scare cards come? If he has a big hand he'll pay us now and if he doesn't he probably won't pay us later anyway. I'd flat dryer, lower boards with a monster but this one seems like one we should raise.
So when we flat flop and turn I think we look as though we have a one-pair hand. That's particularly true on the turn, where we'd certainly raise with a monster rather than let our opponent set this low price to draw. Raising the river then looks really strange.