Micro MTT. Your middle set faces a huge over-shove on a monotone flop. Call or fold?

GaryQQQ

This is a £2.30 Bounty Hunter. We have no reads because the unkown villain joined the table two hands earlier. I have double the average stack, the winner of this hand will be chipleader if it goes to showdown.

My plan was to check/raise and get stacks in on the flop if possible. However the villain takes away my play by jamming 8x pot.

Do you call or fold? And why?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
delkas1	Small blind		50.00	50.00	1110.00
GaryQQQ	Big blind		100.00	150.00	6591.00
	Your hole cards	6 6
buggerme1	Fold
sue1962	Raise		200.00	350.00	5480.00
villain	Call		200.00	550.00	5570.00
fran406	Fold
delkas1	Fold
GaryQQQ	Call		100.00	650.00	6491.00
Flop
		6 8 3
GaryQQQ	Check
sue1962	Check
villain	All-in		5570.00

bearlyther

snap that off so fast

The_Don90

5500 into a 650 pot? i really cant call quick enough. We has a set - did we play for anything else? and i just cant see what we are crushed to hear. I think we're going to see 99/TT with a heart alot and 2 overs with a FD. Obviously sometimes they will show up with 88 or the made flush but then we have to make a note and move one. Make the note very detailed on this situation though imo. Readless its a snapper though. 

LARSON7

Snap it off, if he's made his flush why would he be shipping?

Looks like it might be an over pair, scared by the flushing board

jdsallstar

few stats for you:

He has over pair with heart- you're 65% fav

He has over pair no heart - you're 87% fav

He has flush-he's 65% fav

He has flush draw-you're 72% fav

Even if he has the flush, which he hasn't, you still would win this pot 34% of the time so you've still plenty of outs. If he has the draw and hits the flush on the turn you would still have 22% chance of winning the hand on the river.

Only time you're in real bad shape here is when he has the set of 8s but if that happens it was never gonna be your day lol

GaryQQQ

Thanks guys. You've put my mind at rest. I snapped it off, his flopped flush held-up. After reading the replies here I've been reassured my play was correct.

There's another consideration that hasn't been mentioned here; this is a very soft table, I already have double the chip average and a good chance of a deep run. Do I need to risk this high variance call even if I consider I'm say 60/40 favourite against his range, or would I be better off waiting for a better spot?

NColley

Why are people so quick to like insta dismiss a flush? Stop thinking all people will play at least half decent and take standard lines.

YOUNG_GUN

Not even a decision! dont fold sets often, especially in a micro

devonfish5

when these situations come up Gary,which isn't that often,when playing my dym's i would always go with
A ; my defense mechanism,if u like ie; fold..survive,nxt hand, and
B;my gut feeling. how did you feel when he went all-in? not great is my guess.
therefore it's a reluctant fold for me.
yes you've hit your 6 but to three hearts,i'm not overly happy with that.
yes he could have just the 1 heart but he just as likely could have 2 too.

i know all about the stats,so do you.sometimes it's better to be safe than sorry.
i'm not saying i'd never call i might against a loose cannon,who i've got notes on,but readless?
what if this was the 1st round of the world series of poker and you've got 10,000 chips going in...still call?

dev
ps;i know this is a b/hunter,which isn't my bag,so it might play diferent to a dym or cash,so maybe that's a factor too.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Micro MTT. Your middle set faces a huge over-shove on a monotone flop. Call or fold?:

Why are people so quick to like insta dismiss a flush? Stop thinking all people will play at least half decent and take standard lines.
Posted by NColley

If we could narrow his range down to only flushes then of course we should fold. We'd have around 34% equity and considerably worse pot odds.

If he can have overpairs, top-pair, a pair and a flush draw, two overs and a flush draw, a set, two pair or a combi-draw as well then we're very likely to be getting the right odds against that range. I don't use stove so I can't be certain.

GaryQQQ, if you would fold knowing you're a 60% favourite against this guy, what odds would be too good to fold? We might think we can consistently outplay this guy without seeing showdown but there are other players to worry about and they will be trying to exploit him and you.

devonfish5

if u think u r a 60% fav(and i'm not suggesting you are here,that's just the example being used here,) and call, 4 times from 10 you lose ,game over
from making that call and being chip leader,how many times do we think we go on and win tournament or make final table?if we say 3 times for arguments sake(50%, from the 6 times left in,) or even 4 or 5 times, then 3 times from 10(possibly 4 or 5 times) we make final table at least,or go on to win.
if we have double the average stack,as you say,and we fold here,then how many times from 10 would we expect to make final table?
again, saying 50% which i think is a reasonable guess,then that makes it 5 times from 10.
(again that figure could go either way,maybe even 6 or 7 times).

all of this is hypothetical of course,and so are my figures.
but assuming you feel you have an edge over most opponents ,which i'm sure you do,and that's really my main point here,then you want to be in every tournament you play for as long as possible,regardless of the buy-in amount,as i did when playing a dym.
therefore the fold is the better option.

be interested to see your comments,after having another think about the hand,and i think possibly the situation,ie;did you need to make the call.
i'm not saying your call was wrong either btw,just saying for me the fold is better.


dev
ps;thinking more about it,being chip leader at this stage,or any other i guess 6 times out of 10,is v good.
but then being there with twice the chip everage 10 times from 10 is v good too.
so maybe it is the correct call after all,especially as tournaments are top heavy prize money wise,and the chance of the win or high finish 6/10 just favours the possibility of slightly more cashes by folding.
either way,it's probably pretty close.

NColley

In Response to Re: Micro MTT. Your middle set faces a huge over-shove on a monotone flop. Call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Micro MTT. Your middle set faces a huge over-shove on a monotone flop. Call or fold? : If we could narrow his range down to only flushes then of course we should fold. We'd have around 34% equity and considerably worse pot odds. If he can have overpairs, top-pair, a pair and a flush draw, two overs and a flush draw, a set, two pair or a combi-draw as well then we're very likely to be getting the right odds against that range. I don't use stove so I can't be certain. GaryQQQ, if you would fold knowing you're a 60% favourite against this guy, what odds would be too good to fold? We might think we can consistently outplay this guy without seeing showdown but there are other players to worry about and they will be trying to exploit him and you.
Posted by BorinLoner

Where did I say I would be folding? My comment was to all the 'well villain doesn't have a flush' bridgade. 

I would be including at least some combos of flushes in his range when I came to reviewing whether I believed my play was correct. 

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: Micro MTT. Your middle set faces a huge over-shove on a monotone flop. Call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Micro MTT. Your middle set faces a huge over-shove on a monotone flop. Call or fold? : If we could narrow his range down to only flushes then of course we should fold. We'd have around 34% equity and considerably worse pot odds. If he can have overpairs, top-pair, a pair and a flush draw, two overs and a flush draw, a set, two pair or a combi-draw as well then we're very likely to be getting the right odds against that range. I don't use stove so I can't be certain. GaryQQQ, if you would fold knowing you're a 60% favourite against this guy, what odds would be too good to fold? We might think we can consistently outplay this guy without seeing showdown but there are other players to worry about and they will be trying to exploit him and you.
Posted by BorinLoner

If I think I'm 60% fav I'm calling. A 60% chance to be runaway chipleader and with a head-prize under my belt is a spot worth taking in my opinion. 

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: Micro MTT. Your middle set faces a huge over-shove on a monotone flop. Call or fold?:

when these situations come up Gary,which isn't that often,when playing my dym's i would always go with A ; my defense mechanism,if u like ie; fold..survive,nxt hand, and B;my gut feeling. how did you feel when he went all-in? not great is my guess. therefore it's a reluctant fold for me. yes you've hit your 6 but to three hearts,i'm not overly happy with that. yes he could have just the 1 heart but he just as likely could have 2 too. i know all about the stats,so do you.sometimes it's better to be safe than sorry. i'm not saying i'd never call i might against a loose cannon,who i've got notes on,but readless? what if this was the 1st round of the world series of poker and you've got 10,000 chips going in...still call? dev ps;i know this is a b/hunter,which isn't my bag,so it might play diferent to a dym or cash,so maybe that's a factor too.
Posted by devonfish5

Thanks for the input. In a DYM this is a very easy fold for me because survival is much more important than anything else, unneccesary gambling would be unwise.

MTTs are a completely different kettle of fish. In these I'm always playing for first place, min-cashes don't interest me. I'm happy to risk my tournament life for a monster pot if I estimate the risk/reward ratio is in my favour.

BorinLoner

I agree with you Gary. I think folding is only really an option here if we think that, based upon our history with him, our opponent's shoving range is very heavily weighted towards made flushes.

We always need to try to win MTT's. Trying to hold out to just make the cash is a losing long-term strategy.

NColley, I didn't believe that you were advocating folding. I agree that we can't rule the flush out of his range, by any means.

CraigSG1

Its a call all day long, the end result of this call is immiterial. You are beating far more hands that are losing and your rarely drawing dead. It was a bad play by the villian and only lucky you had such a monster to call with. Other hands, even AA (no heart) should be folding there. The chance to win big pots are rare early on too. I would never dismiss the flush as a possibility for his range as low flushes can and do do this. I think in low stakes and BH the % are even more in your favour that you have the best hand here. Folding is definatley a long time losing play. Yes survival matters but on 6 max tables you cant grind your way to a final table without getting it in ina few marginal posisitions (which I dont think yours was).