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Yucky spot - call or fold

ballboyballboy Member Posts: 162
edited March 2013 in The Poker Clinic
Not sure whats best on the river. I elected to pot control on the turn by just calling rather than reraising after seeing TheBaddie cold call the EvilSidekick's reraise on the flop.
The river is a Queen which gives me two pair, but TheBaddie shoves. The EvilSidekick instantly folds and the decision is on me. Call or fold?
Hand History #636023812 (23:16 23/03/2013)PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceTheEnemy
Small blind £0.02£0.02£3.40EEAYPOEBig blind £0.04£0.06£6.15 Your hole cardsKQ   stax2227Fold    SALSACITYFold    ballboyRaise £0.12£0.18£4.64TheBaddie
Raise £0.18£0.36£3.22EvilSidekickCall £0.16£0.52£5.99ballboyCall £0.08£0.60£4.56Flop  10K8   TheBaddie
Bet £0.04£0.64£3.18EvilSidekickRaise £0.38£1.02£5.61ballboyCall £0.38£1.40£4.18TheBaddie
Call £0.34£1.74£2.84Turn  8   TheBaddie
Bet £0.04£1.78£2.80EvilSidekickCall £0.04£1.82£5.57ballboyCall £0.04£1.86£4.14River  Q   TheBaddie
All-in £2.80£4.66£0.00

Comments

  • ballboyballboy Member Posts: 162
    edited March 2013
    Breaking it down

    Value hands I can beat:

    AK - Would he not barrel stronger on this texture of board?

    KJ - Would most likely bet something around half pot on river if he were to fire

    K-10 - Possibly no reraise PF but would think he has best hand the way action went


    Bluffs:

    JJ - maybe saw play on turn as weak and went for full repping of house or straight.
    AQ - took control of the pot PF with betting lead but played weak post flop. Check called for gutshot - saw the river cheap and decided to fire.

    Any smaller pairs.

    Value bets I can't beat
    AA - (bigger two pair) - possibly one of those players who likes to trap with a big pair, often to their own expense
    10-10 - I thought quite a likely hand. Trying to induce action with a pretty much secure hand when turn comes down.
    K-K - not likely as I had a King, but same as above
    AJ - bet two streets small with air then played fit with nut straight.
    A-8 possibly too convenient a hand.
    QQ- over bet the pot once they rivered a boat

  • BorinLonerBorinLoner Member Posts: 3,863
    edited March 2013
    I haven't many thoughts on this hand apart from to say that it's player dependent and the river bet is very polarising: It's likely to be either very strong or very weak.

    Take all the marginal hands out of his range and then assess how many of the remaining hands you beat. You don't seem to be giving him credit for holding many very weak hands, so that suggests you're probably behind his range. Tough to know for sure but given his repeated 4p leads followed by a big overbet, I wouldn't expect our top-two to be good. It's a line that doesn't make alot of sense but he 3-bet pre-flop, called the raise on the flop and now wants to get lots of money in.

    Might be a spewy bluff. Probably just a big hand. I dunno. Reads ftw.
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