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is their much chance of me being ahead on this flop with AA
craigcu12
Member Posts: 3,960
after just calling with his hand preflop it seemed puzzling why a board with only 1 straight draw would get a pot size bet made.
so i am left wondering could i play it safe and fold because if i raised i can see a good chance of being jammed and if i call the flop. i can't see much reason for making the fold on the turn.
| shakinaces | Small blind | 15.00 | 15.00 | 1955.00 | |
| y | Big blind | 30.00 | 45.00 | 1925.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| JFLUSH | Fold | ||||
| LEAH337 | Call | 30.00 | 75.00 | 1950.00 | |
| x | Call | 30.00 | 105.00 | 1985.00 | |
| craigcu12 | Raise | 120.00 | 225.00 | 1835.00 | |
| shakinaces | Fold | ||||
| y | Call | 90.00 | 315.00 | 1835.00 | |
| LEAH337 | Fold | ||||
| x | Call | 90.00 | 405.00 | 1895.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| y | Bet | 405.00 | 810.00 | 1430.00 | |
| x | Call | 405.00 | 1215.00 | 1490.00 | |
Comments
Shiiiiip it!!
Both oppoents ranges are weighted towards top pair overcard kicker, the OESD, or maybe even two random overs.
Where the hand changes is the BB's donk lead. Its a big donk lead too, full pot. Usually players do this with a drawing hand, they would try to trap with a real made hand like a set or two pair.
If it was me playing the hand I would reraise the flop all in, and potentially sigh if called from player Y! His range is a lot wider than X who is likely to be the one with top pair/random picture card combo.
Hope this helps, let us know how it played out!
i did decide to go for the shove thinking to myself the BB could have anything and thinks it was just another button bet i made.
and as for the caller i guessed he would have two over cards or a 10.
it turns out that x had a set while the blind had Q10
I don't think we should be assuming that we can put either of our opponents on a strong range without those reads. We have to give them both a range of possible hands, in which sets will be included, but the fact that there has been a bet and a call, even for full-pot, is not enough on it's own to indicate super-strength.
Basically we need to give our opponents ranges and decide how our hand plays against those two ranges and compare that perceived equity to the pot odds and implied odds of getting it in. That's an impossible sum to accurately assess but I'd say that unless you have reads that one of these players is super-tight, you should be going with this hand. Simply because one of them had a set this time, doesn't mean it was incorrect to get it in. We could fold and pat ourselves on the back when we see one of our opponents had a set, but that wouldn't mean it was the correct fold.