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Grand National 2014
joesman1
Member Posts: 2,053
Don't worry everyone, I'm not gonna bore u with another years thread. But I'd like to ask all the regs and experts who they fancy long term for next years race. I've spotted one that raced on Saturday. Will be 9 years old next year (persieved perfect age), from what it's shown loves the track and good fast/safe spring going, jumps well. And unlike On His Own, I'd quite like it to run a few times over the winter, on unsuitable slow going, to bring its revised rating (when it's published) down a few pounds. Wouldn't take Einstein to work out who I'm talking about. So what does everyone else think/fancy??
Comments
First: 12/6/2011
Last: 6/4/2013
And was stood at the counter next to a punter who collected several thousand pounds from ante post bets last Cheltenham festival.
He backed three horses ante post in a £100 Win Patent and a £150 e/w treble
The horses he backed were
Long Run 8/1 Gold Cup
Dynaste 8/1 RSA chase
Far West 10/1 Triumph Hurdle
It could be the size of his bets are proportional to his bankroll but he seldom comes in the shop when he does it's usually to visit the payout counter.
Bumped into the same chap this weekend at BetFred & Corals both times he was waiting for a bet to be approved £250 E/W on Toronado for the 2000 Guineas at 12/1
So far as the national 2014 goes, I think my selection Swing Bill jumped superbly I just wish I'd taken the six places offer! firmer ground next year I think he'll run well
He will be spot on for next year!
You must look at a horses long term career rather than its last three or four races.
Couldnt beleive Mon mome let off at 100-1 and if we had looked at his form for the two years previous to his win it would have shown he was thrown in.
Neptune Collonges, 33-1, although you didnt have to go as far back, ie his second in the trial if you had of done it would have reinforced the fact that he had a **** uva chance.
This year Auroras encore had been running on ground which was not his and his weight collapsed accordingly. His second in last years Scottish National told us he liked the ground and got the trip.
The National is one of those races all trainers like to win and although some might be running without hope most will have been entered with the beleif they can win. No trainer is going to go to that race to give a horse a spin or as a prep race for another. So we have to get it into our heads that if a trainer has put the horse in the race he /she is looking to win it whatever the odds.
Ok I followed this train of thought with Imperial Commander this year and got bitten but that I feel was because he had so many setbacks this season , travelled well and then hit a wall rather than his handicap rating which was generous to say the least.
Ok you need luck as well in this race but if you have other things in your favour you can make your own luck to a certain extent. For example Auroras Encore could be ridden handy because they knew he could get the trip, liked the ground and had a light weight =not many horses he had to worry about avaoiding.
So my tip is look at a horses best form in the last two years, trust the trainer and accordingly and this is certainly not a dig, dont back ante post, because until the weights are announced , the ground is determined and you have all the last two years form for each horse before you you will be very lucky to get the winner.!!
All the placed horses this year ran to the best form over the last two years. Cappa Bleu and Tea For three ultimately being beaten because the ground was too good for them , it didnt stop a good ground horse.
A horse who will go close in a future national if it remains fit and gets its ground is Lord Windermere
Can anybody tell me why a horse who didnt get home last year started at 11-2 favourite. It was never going to win a month of Sundays.
they are both graham wylie horses (sorry) and are BACK IN FOCUS and PRICE DE BEAUCHENE.
BACK IN FOCUS will be 9y.o next year (ideal age) but has only run 4 times over fenches (a little worry, but not worried that not run oover fences before) proves hes a stayer last time at cheltenham , but would need softer going.
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE, would of been near FAV this year but for injury, hope he stays fit next year when will be 11y.o. also hope owner decides to go stright to grand national )as runs will off a long break in past) or just 1 hurdle race in winter next year to keep hdc mark same.
hope this helps a little and gl if placing bet but very early to pick a nice type for next year.
if i had to plump for 1 horse i would stick with BACK IN FOCUS tho.
As to Seabass, there must be a lot of mug punters out there, although they had to do was use their eyes. More weight on a non stayer is never going to get it to win a race. The Trainer almost said as much when the weights were announced.
I know joesman likes your tip with Back in Focus as he reckoned it was a national horse from its Cheltenham run. I have been a fan of Prince De Beucherne being a Natioanl winner rather than On His Own for a long time now. The only problem is Willie never seems to be able to get the horse fit at the right time. With or without a previous run.
next year I am going to study this race so much I wont be caught out by hindsight. Hopefully!!!! We all seem to get caught up with certain horses and forget long term plans.
All the horses named will start at only half their ante post odds on the day ie Tea For three 20-1 now likely to be 10-1 on day. Oscar Time 40-1 probaly 20-1 on day.
Can you really see them changing much up to 1st January 2014, NO and the chance is anyone of them could be out of racing by then. Even then there wont be any value.
The bookies must love keeping your money for months with little or no chance of you beating them.
Now if ante post odds started 100-1 or better to stay fit for 12 mths, get the ground they liked, etc etc etc then I might be tempted.
Sorry Neil but Battle Group 33-1 or any of the others is no value at any stage except when NRNB comes in.