nl30 Set's K's - do we stack off

rancid

Ensuring I am not losing the plot

Do we stack off verus oppo range 100% of time

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
x	Small blind		£0.15	£0.15	£36.70
basty2010	Big blind		£0.30	£0.45	£32.90
	Your hole cards	K K
vinnybhoy	Fold
Lambert180	Fold
rancid	Raise		£0.90	£1.35	£31.98
x	Call		£0.75	£2.10	£35.95
basty2010	Fold
Flop
		10 2 K
x	Check
rancid	Bet		£1.50	£3.60	£30.48
x	Call		£1.50	£5.10	£34.45
Turn
		A
x	Check
rancid	Bet		£3.60	£8.70	£26.88
x	Raise		£9.75	£18.45	£24.70
rancid	Call		£6.15	£24.60	£20.73
River
		4
x	Bet		£24.60	£49.20	£0.10
rancid

huuuuume

pretty horrible spot.

the biggest problem you have is pretty much all of villain's range is QJ.  if this is the first time this villain has taken this line against you i probably call and then take notes.  If this is the line they take with the top of their range then i think you have to fold.

the only realistic set is 22.

it's that horrible situation where their hand is face up but your hand is so pretty.  against the range you should be putting villain on i think your hand does pretty poorly against this range (basically they almost always have QJ)

BigHawk89

Urghhhh! It does look like JQ! But in spots like this could the opponent do this with big hands that we crush like 1010 22 a10? Just one of them spots where you kinda just have to call. Take it he had JQ?

rancid

In Response to Re: nl30 Set's K's - do we stack off:

pretty horrible spot. the biggest problem you have is pretty much all of villain's range is QJ.  if this is the first time this villain has taken this line against you i probably call and then take notes.  If this is the line they take with the top of their range then i think you have to fold. the only realistic set is 22. it's that horrible situation where their hand is face up but your hand is so pretty.  against the range you should be putting villain on i think your hand does pretty poorly against this range (basically they almost always have QJ)
Posted by huuuuume

yeah probs, range is very narrow  - 2's/QJ/KQcc - maybe 10's - tilty A10

if we say it's going to be 2's and QJ tha majority then still don't think I can fold

still seems a bit difficult to put oppo on such a defined one hand range where we could be folding the winner way too often espcially because it's btn v sb

open to opinions - thanks

huuuuume

i think in this situation the villain has turned their hand completely face up.

if it looks like a duck
quacks like a duck
then it's a ...

this couldnt be played more like QJ if they tried and just because you have such a big hand doesn't mean you should ignore this.  your hand strength is only based on how it plays against their range and in this spot against their range you're in a bad spot

huuuuume

also, the A on the turn in the worst card for anything in villain's range which is not QJ...yet they reraise the turn

foldUfairy

I dont see how we can just put the villain on one hand and fold the 2nd nuts here.

Surely he would play 22s & Ts the same way and possibly AT, plus the fact that its B vs SB so he could just be making a move, turned a FD ect.

Against a range of 22s, Ts, AT, an some air this a call an just unlucky if he has QJ, reload an take note.

rancid

In Response to Re: nl30 Set's K's - do we stack off:

i think in this situation the villain has turned their hand completely face up. if it looks like a duck quacks like a duck then it's a ... this couldnt be played more like QJ if they tried and just because you have such a big hand doesn't mean you should ignore this.  your hand strength is only based on how it plays against their range and in this spot against their range you're in a bad spot
Posted by huuuuume

Sometimes the duck quack's too loudly to be a duck so you think how the **** can it be a duck because a duck wouldn't quak so loudly.
Then you actually realise the duck is a duck, and say **** why do I always ignore the duck when the duck can't help telling me they are a duck.

oppo could be a duck with set though but I understand what your saying about turn card scaring duck into playing a set another way. But duck may just quak "btn can't have QJ" and quack loudly anyway

Just can't work out if the quaking is to scare away or to say "I am over here"

AK would have been such an easy fold


FWIW think set and QJ are pretty much all they have here, does that make calling neutral EV
I say set because as above duck would quack the same on turn with set

Infact if we include 10's, 2's and QJ are they going to turn up with hands I beat the majority

how many combos though :S
Think more combos of QJ than 10's and 2's so yeah should fold :S

16 combi of QJ
6 combi of 2's and 10's

god dam ducks

huuuuume

i think you should try 'the flying V' formation from the film Mighty Ducks

quack

KKrippler

Its pretty tight to assign his range to just QJ, but as Huuuuuuuuuuuuume says, it does feel like QJ.

In game i dont know if I can fold but when reflecting, I lean to folding.

rancid

Just done the math and it pretty much -EV to call here versus a range of QJ,2's,10's

22 combis

ahead of 6 combis  27%

lose to 16 combis 72%

 

That's another hand done for today.....feel free to let me know if the above is right or wroung

 

 

thanks - just going out to shoot some ducks

 

 

 

RobIles

"you just want people to think your a nit"

zammo19720

the raise on the turn should tell you everything you need to know. He's putting you on top pair post flop betting. On the turn he thinks he's ahead, hence the raise. He's raised more than pot, seriously if  I hit the nuts on the turn why  am I going to make a move that strong to scare my customer away. Thats your cue to jam it in. You're putting him on too narrow a range with a set or QJ, I'd more likely be leaning towards AJ, AQ or A10 at the most. In my opinion its a moderately awkward call but never a fold versus sb. If he has the nuts then take notes and move on.

GELDY

no-one mentioned AA

sure it would be a crazy way to play it

starts with a trappy slow play, and when he sets up he wants to get stacks in.

obscure, I know, but worth balancing against some of the losing hands being suggested!