Barclays Premier League 16th - 17th April 2013

Wilhelm

The past weekend was decent for me.  I ended up in good profit, and if Norwich had held on for another five minutes it would have been even better.

This week we have four games in midweek, and bizarrely I have managed to find a bit of early value in all of them. 

The first thing to say is that the bookmakers offer us the most inviting prices on the bets they find the hardest to sell.  Draws generally fall into this category, as when most punters place a bet in the win market, they usually are doing so because they have a strong opinion about one or both of the teams and will therefore back one team to win.  If you think Manchester United are brilliant and West Ham are rubbish, you'll back Manchester United, right? More on that later.

Another reason bookmakers don't take a lot of draw bets is that when most punters place a bet, they will probably watch the game.  If you back the draw, the best case scenario for you is a very dull game where neither team get anywhere near the opponent's  goalmouth.  Why would anyone want to watch this?

This week I'll be backing the draw in the games between Arsenal and Everton, Fulham and Chelsea, and Manchester City and Wigan. 

I can't see much between Arsenal and Everton and they both have tons to play for.  They'll both be going for the win, but there is still a bit of value in the draw at 14/5.

I'm having 1 point on the Draw at 14/5.

Fulham have been decent at times this season while Chelsea have the potential to be very inconsistent.  The last five meetings between these clubs have ended in a draw.

I'm having 1 point on the Draw at 15/4.

Generally speaking it is very rare for two teams in the same league to draw less than 18% of the time.  As such 11/2 is a massive price for two teams in the same league to draw, even if they are as mismatched as Manchester City and Wigan.  For what it's worth I think Wigan could put in a decent performance.  They usually find some form around this time of the season and Manchester City may have a little hangover having just got through their FA Cup semi-final. 

I'm having 1 point on the Draw at 11/2.

For the second week in a row I'll be backing a short price favourite away team, and for the second week in a row it's Manchester United.  West Ham have a tendency to step up their game against the big boys, but I think 4/6 for Manchester United is huge.  They should be more like 5/12.

I'm having 6 points on Manchester United at 4/6.

Wilhelm

**** me I'm bad at this.