Just wondering, implied odds how do you work it out? Are we basically saying if we call, and hit our out, we are expecting to ship and get paid off?
With hand one is this a fold on the Turn? Or can we call here?
Hand 2, I know I have the worst hand pre flop, but am looking to set mine. Was the 3 bet to expensive a call to make to "set mine".
Hand 3 Easy call? Or fold? I thought it was an easy call cause i had so many outs. Would anyone be folding here?
Just wondering thoughts/ opinions, justification for either fold or call?
| helsauce10 | Small blind | | £0.02 | £0.02 | £0.94 |
| LARSON7 | Big blind | | £0.04 | £0.06 | £6.50 |
| | Your hole cards | | | | |
| nostaw4901 | Call | | £0.04 | £0.10 | £4.64 |
| ryderroo | Fold | | | | |
| Shaw95 | Call | | £0.04 | £0.14 | £1.77 |
| LEEDSHX | Fold | | | | |
| helsauce10 | Fold | | | | |
| LARSON7 | Check | | | | |
| Flop |
|---|
| | | | | | |
| LARSON7 | Check | | | | |
| nostaw4901 | Check | | | | |
| Shaw95 | Check | | | | |
| Turn |
|---|
| | | | | | |
| LARSON7 | Check | | | | |
| nostaw4901 | Bet | | £0.04 | £0.18 | £4.60 |
| Shaw95 | Raise | | £0.26 | £0.44 | £1.51 |
| LARSON7 | Call | | £0.26 | £0.70 | £ |
| x | Small blind | | £0.02 | £0.02 | £4.05 |
| monkeeey | Big blind | | £0.04 | £0.06 | £4.45 |
| | Your hole cards | | | | |
| BilboW | Call | | £0.04 | £0.10 | £3.99 |
| BRIANV | Fold | | | | |
| LARSON7 | Raise | | £0.20 | £0.30 | £6.17 |
| Tamwar | Fold | | | | |
| x | Raise | | £0.50 | £0.80 | £3.55 |
| LARSON7 | Small blind | | £0.02 | £0.02 | £6.92 |
| lMARKl | Big blind | | £0.04 | £0.06 | £4.39 |
| | Your hole cards | | | | |
| toe66ok | Call | | £0.04 | £0.10 | £1.97 |
| Webb92 | Fold | | | | |
| willy296 | Raise | | £0.20 | £0.30 | £2.80 |
| LARSON7 | Call | | £0.18 | £0.48 | £6.74 |
| lMARKl | Fold | | | | |
| toe66ok | Call | | £0.16 | £0.64 | £1.81 |
| Flop |
|---|
| | | | | | |
| LARSON7 | Check | | | | |
| toe66ok | Check | | | | |
| willy296 | All-in | | £2.80 | £3.44 | £0.00 |
| LARSON7 | Call | | £2.80 | £6.24 | £3.94 |
| toe66ok | All-in | | £1.81 |
LARSON7
Member Posts: 4,491
Comments
Implied odds are all about what we think we can win from the opponent on further streets if we hit our hand. You also need to take into account how likely you are to get paid off if you hit. For instance, if you're drawing to broadway with Ax on KQJ, if it does end up being KQJTx then you gotta thinking (before you decide to call earlier in the hand) that if you do hit your str8, very few hands are gonna pay you off on a KQJT board.
For set mining purposes, people generally say you need to be able to win 20x the amount to call to do it profitably. It's about 9to1 to flop a set but the 20x figure builds in the fact sometimes yuo'll flop a set and not get paid, sometimes you'll flop a set and still lose etc. So if someone 4x's to 16p, you need your stack AND your opponents stack to both be at least £3.20 really.
For this reason calling 3bets purely to set mine is rarely gonna be good because you often just aren't deep enough (depending on their 3b size). In the case above you aren't deep enough to set mine imo BUT I think with TT you don't have to be pure set mining, there are still other flops that are good for you which don't contain a T.
As for the J8s, as I said somewhere else, it's always a bit dodgy working out implied odds when you're drawing to a hand that isn't the nuts (or even close). Back door flushes will get you paid off more than when theres 2 on the flop and it comes on the turn or river but I'm still not sure, especially as the villian is pretty short stacked. I think it's close.
Your odds of flopping a set are a tad under 12% which is about 7.5:1 not 9:1 which would be precisely 10%. That difference of 2% is actually quite a big difference in the long run.
The idea that you have to be able to win 20x the bet is a bit flawed, too. It's one of those guidelines that people treat as "personal rules". In reality it's actually a really poor guideline because against certain players, in certain situations, you can profitably set-mine for as little as 10x the bet you're facing: These are the players you're absolutely certain can only ever be raising with a monster pre-flop pair and won't fold the flop. This is especially common at the micro stakes. Folding because you can't win 20x the bet would mean passing up clear value situations against these players.
Against looser players, having 20x the bet in the effective stack would likely not be enough to be able to set-mine profitably. For example, against someone who raises every hand you can't expect that you will be able to stack them on the occasions you hit your set. You need them to be very spewy post-flop with weak hands to be able to set-mine profitably. They have a wide range pre-flop, so they're unlikely to have a big hand post-flop and most players don't pay off big bets without a big hand. Against these players you should consider the merits of re-raising pre-flop. Since they have a wide range they will frequently fold to that pre-flop aggression. On other occasions you should consider just folding your small pocket pairs to these players or just flat-calling with your big and middling pocket pairs, to play down the streets.
The key principle of set-mining is that on average we need to be able to win 7.5x the bet we're facing to break even. The closer to that number we are, the more sure we have to be that we will get paid off when we hit. Having a 20x "rule" is just going to be an excuse for not adapting to your opponent.
As for the particular hand with the TT: You've said that "I know I have the worst hand pre-flop..." If you're sure of that and this opponent is never 3-betting with worse than an overpair to your TT, then the effective stack is comfortably enough to set-mine. You have to call 32p to win a maximum of £4.35 and those are implied-odds of 13.6:1. As long as we're assuming that our opponent is not folding an overpair on a Ten-high flop, then we definitely can be set-mining here.
Someone on the other thread said that if he was sure that his opponent had AA, KK or QQ here, he'd just fold. You can see that's completely the opposite of how we should be thinking. In fact, we can only set-mine here if we believe our opponent does have that narrow range.
The other two hands have been pretty well covered.
Fold the turn on the first hand because you don't have good implied odds to hit on the river and you're not drawing to the nuts. You don't know what the third player is going to do and if he 3-bets, you've just donated extra money to the pot before being forced to fold.
On the third hand you're probably a favourite against his range for shoving this flop. Obviously we should always be getting money in when we're a favourite.
And thanks for the advice, top notch as always.