Hi all, I was just wondering if you though i played this OK as i thought it was a good spot to try and treble up early and build a stack or should i have just avoided it??
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancerubberdukSmall blind 15.0015.002165.00D96RNWEBig blind 30.0045.002080.00 Your hole cardsJA jimmy12534Fold TheAllyRaise 90.00135.001940.00adzeyCall 90.00225.001485.00mjp123Fold rubberdukCall 75.00300.002090.00D96RNWECall 60.00360.002020.00Flop 697 rubberdukBet 180.00540.001910.00D96RNWECall 180.00720.001840.00TheAllyCall 180.00900.001760.00adzeyAll-in 1485.002385.000.00rubberdukCall 1305.003690.00605.00D96RNWEAll-in 1840.005530.000.00TheAllyFold rubberdukCall 535.006065.0070.00rubberdukShow8A D96RNWEShowJA adzeyShow99 Turn 4 River 7 adzeyWinFull House, 9s and 7s4995.00 4995.00D96RNWEWinPair of 7s1070.00 1070.00
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Comments
Nowt wrong with trying to spin it up early in these tourneys, unlucky.
Facing the donk-bet, we need to think about our opponent's range. You haven't provided any information on that but unless we think that this player only donk-leads here with a really nutted range like sets or two-pair, which he never folds to a raise, then I think we should be raising.
Our hand has good equity against any hand but it's unlikely to be the best of four hands right now. By raising as a semi-bluff we can get better hands to fold alot of the time and when they don't, we'll be getting it in with alot of outs anyway.
As played, when the action comes back to us we should believe that we have probably eight live outs. I don't think we should be considering the 7d, the Aces or Jacks as live outs. In that case, we're probably around 30% or perhaps a little less to win the hand against the two ranges. Our pot odds are around 30% if we assume rubberduk is calling the rest off. That makes it really tight but if we want to be winning MTT's we need to be spinning up our stack.
If there's ever a chance that our Ace or Jack are live outs, then this is an easy call. I don't use pokerstove either, so the 30% equity against their ranges is just my best guess. You might want to put their ranges into stove. That will give you a clear answer about whether it's a call or not.
Generally speaking, folding this nut draw with these pot odds seems bad, so I'm happy with the call. However, I think it's definitely better to be raising the donk-bet ourselves.
Thinking about it, it probably is a call because some of the time they can both have weaker draws than us or one will be playing a draw and the other just a pair. Either scenario would dramatically increase our equity.
As I say, PokerStove will give you a clear answer.