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Flop 2 pair, tricky turn card. what now?
davelufc
Member Posts: 1,374
Only 2nd hand of a deepy. Do i just flat or shove the turn?
Or should i have just shoved on the flop re raise??
I think pre was a bit weak but w/e
Or should i have just shoved on the flop re raise??
I think pre was a bit weak but w/e
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cato83 | Small blind | 10.00 | 10.00 | 4970.00 | |
| shrek01 | Big blind | 20.00 | 30.00 | 4960.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| xxxx | Call | 20.00 | 50.00 | 4900.00 | |
| davelufc | Raise | 60.00 | 110.00 | 4940.00 | |
| Gumby647 | Call | 60.00 | 170.00 | 4900.00 | |
| Howezy | Call | 60.00 | 230.00 | 5100.00 | |
| cato83 | Call | 50.00 | 280.00 | 4920.00 | |
| shrek01 | Call | 40.00 | 320.00 | 4920.00 | |
| xxxx | Call | 40.00 | 360.00 | 4860.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| cato83 | Check | ||||
| shrek01 | Check | ||||
| xxxx | Bet | 180.00 | 540.00 | 4680.00 | |
| davelufc | Raise | 400.00 | 940.00 | 4540.00 | |
| Gumby647 | Fold | ||||
| Howezy | Fold | ||||
| cato83 | Call | 400.00 | 1340.00 | 4520.00 | |
| shrek01 | Fold | ||||
| xxxx | Raise | 1000.00 | 2340.00 | 3680.00 | |
| davelufc | Call | 780.00 | 3120.00 | 3760.00 | |
| cato83 | Fold | ||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| xxxx | Bet | 1560.00 | 4680.00 | 2120.00 | |
| davelufc ?? | |||||
Comments
I don't really like flatting the 3-bet on the flop, even with your raise size, because your hand is unlikely to improve on the turn and your opponent's hand is likely to either improve to be better than your two-pair or weaken to a point where he's no longer willing to get it in. So you want to get it in on the flop after raising and let him call with his draws and overpairs.
On the turn, though, your hand has lost most of it's value against your opponent's flop 3-betting range. You only beat the drawing hands and now even those have probably picked up six more outs against you. Any 7x hand, an overpair and the flopped straights and sets all now beat you. You're just not ahead very often and when you are, you've got lots of cards to dodge. Time to fold.
More importantly, what made you narrow his range to those hands?
Neglected to mention in my first post that you should be raising bigger pre-flop. This deep, we should probably make our standard opening raise bigger than 3x anyway. With a limper in front, we need to go bigger still. 5x pre-flop would be reasonable with these stacks and one limper. That's assuming that we're determined to play the hand.
It was a low stake deepstack and players will call with junk, when the turn came, oppo could easily have random 7x hands.
Also, the missed Fd could have been an option too. I agree about the weak raise pre,
I got lucky here, on another day i`m down to 4 BBs after 2 hands!!!!! Always learning.
1) We're unlikely to be blind stealing when we're this deep because the blinds are so insignificant. That means we're likely to be raising value hands and good drawing hands only. With the big made hands we want to get as much money as possible in pre-flop when we know we're ahead and with the drawing hands we want to build a bigger pot so we can stack our opponents post-flop when we hit big. As you say, it's tough to get 250BB into the pot down the streets but we can't simply hope or assume that someone is going to 3-bet us pre-flop. Most of the time that doesn't happen. This means we need to build the pot more ourselves if we're going to be able to stack our opponent by the river.
2) We need to balance our raises between our big hands, which we don't want to take multi-way, and our drawing hands, which we do want to take multi-way. We can't flag up for our opponents when we're weak and when we're strong. Our opponents don't need to be Tom Dwan or Phil Ivey to notice that we're raising 3x with 45s and 5x with AA for example. Even if we would prefer to take the flop multi-way, we can't raise a custom amount to do that, hoping that people won't notice what we're doing. Usually they will notice.
We've got to adjust our raise size to the stack sizes. If we're super-deep we ought to be opening for more than 3x. If there are limpers we should increase our raise size again.
On the flop here, with bottom two-pair, we have to be thinking that our hand is likely to be best. If the board was dryer I would agree that we probably couldn't get stacks in ahead. However, on this wet board, we can definitely build a big pot and get stacks in against alot of hands we're beating such as two-overs with a flush draw, a straight draw with a flush draw or even perhaps against an overplayed overpair. The only hands that beat us at this stage are 63, 86, 44, 55 and 77. That's a very narrow range and we can get it in against many more hands that we beat than hands that beat us. Against that range we should consider that we're likely to be a favourite.
If we're playing 45 and don't consider a 45X flop to be a flop to be really happy with, then we probably shouldn't be playing the hand at all. Two-pair is a better hand than a straight draw or a flush draw so we're essentially saying that we're only happy when we flop trips or better and that's just not going to happen very often.
The point you make about turn cards killing our hand or killing our action is actually a really good argument for getting it in on this flop. If turn cards can come to make our opponent's hand too weak to stack off with then we should get it in when he's willing to stack off with a hand that we're beating. As long as we beat our opponent's range for getting it in then we should get it in at that moment.
The fact that we're deepstacked shouldn't be a reason to not go for maximum value as long as we judge that we're ahead of our opponent's range. We can't wait to get stacks in until we're a massive favourite this deep because those opportunities won't happen very often. We can't just wait to cooler people.
There are good arguments to flat call the flop donk-bet. While we are a favourite against alot of the hands that stack off here, we won't be a massive favourite. We can call and allow them to keep betting their weaker hadns on later streets, knowing which are the good cards for us and which are the bad. The idea shouldn't be that we're lacking confidence in our hand at this stage. We should think that our hand is the best out there a large proportion of the time and we're flat-calling to extract value from our opponents. This of course means that we can get away from the obvious danger cards but it has the negative effect of allowing scare cards to come for our opponent, meaning that they will not pay us any more. Any overcard, flush card or non-flush card could be a scare card.
Given the alternatives, I think that raising the flop to get it in is the best choice. Either way we shouldn't have much fear that our hand isn't the best on this flop. Even if it happens to be beat, we should treat that as a little bit of a cooler.
Our opponent should not be happy to take down the 67BB in the pot when he's holding the nuts (I'm not sure where you're getting the 35BB figure). He should be trying to get every penny in the middle against as wide a range as possible. If he manages to get it in as a favourite then he should be happy. That's what he did and he was unlucky. Extracting maximum value from the nuts is far more important than not risking his tournament life. I agree that his flop 3-bet could have been bigger but if he'd tried to shut down the action and claim those 67BB then he'd have been missing out on the chance to win 250BB or more with the nuts.
Preserving your tournament life does not mean avoiding any kind of risk at all as that's simply not possible and certainly not profitable. Trying to do that will see you miss value with your monster hands and bleed chips folding your marginal hands because you're too risk averse.