Massive river overbet- nuts or bluff

donkeyplop

Reads on guy is he is capable of doing some random moves but mainly solid.

Is calling the turn then folding river bad???

I really can't work out still if this was a good fold or not???

Opinions please...............................

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
STR1BS	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£46.73
DoDaMath	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£32.59
	Your hole cards	K K
xxx	Raise		£0.40	£0.70	£50.33
AJ_Rockets	Fold
donkeyplop	Raise		£1.20	£1.90	£38.50
ljb1989	Fold
STR1BS	Fold
DoDaMath	Fold
xxx	Call		£0.80	£2.70	£49.53
Flop
		5 5 7
xxx	Check
donkeyplop	Bet		£2.03	£4.73	£36.47
xxx	Raise		£4.06	£8.79	£45.47
donkeyplop	Call		£2.03	£10.82	£34.44
Turn
		2
xxx	Bet		£6.80	£17.62	£38.67
donkeyplop	Call		£6.80	£24.42	£27.64
River
		6
xxx	Bet		£35.60	£60.02	£3.07
donkeyplop	Fold
xxx	Muck
xxx	Win		£23.19		£26.26
xxx	Return		£35.60

percival09

3bet bigger pre

I'm not sure if he's stupid enough to overvalue 99-QQ that much so I fold too. He's never bluffing either this deep especially

donkeyplop

Yes the 3 bet was a touch too small.

Still odd sizing on the river.

percival09

Kinda sucks because me saying fold basically means I think he has 5x, 77 or AA, which is such a narrow range and not many combo's, but I don't think he's over-valuing 99-QQ, he might be but I doubt it, and I just don't think he'd be bluffing this deep at all, esp with it being 20nl. I don't think he has any air in his range, it just depends whether he's over-valuing his hand

NColley

What solid reg min raises utg deep though and then check min raises the flop repping nothing. Just seems like a goon to me.

If hes a reg we should have some basic bet/raise sizing tells and if we don't then we haven't been paying enough attention. 

The_Don90

given  your reads im 75% sure on actually knowing the name of the villian. 

Preflop has been dealt with by others so im purely going to focus on the rest. 

If the villian is who i think it is then im leaning towards a fold. - in game i probably tilt sigh call though. 

rancid

fold and feel good unless u seen oppo bomb river like a dwill

even funnier they have left 3.07 behind


what are you beating QQ  and some very weird bluff or a total stoopid 76 )

grantorino

Solid guy min opens utg deep?  Is this his standard open? What do you think his 3b calling range is? Has he any idea how to bet size

His river bet is just slightly over pot.  I'm calling cos I can't fold overpairs v this line. Overpair imo, if you are beaten it will nearly always be AA think he can show up with bluffs sometimes too

percival09

In Response to Re: Massive river overbet- nuts or bluff:

Solid guy min opens utg deep?  Is this his standard open? What do you think his 3b calling range is? Has he any idea how to bet size His river bet is just slightly over pot.  I'm calling cos I can't fold overpairs v this line. Overpair imo, if you are beaten it will nearly always be AA think he can show up with bluffs sometimes too
Posted by grantorino

I really don't think so. 

We can just fold until we have actual evidence of him being a sp az

donkeyplop

I did say mainly solid.

He is capable of doing some odd/unstandard plays like here.

There seems to be a trend at this level of min opening, not sure why?

NColley

In Response to Re: Massive river overbet- nuts or bluff:

I did say mainly solid. He is capable of doing some odd/unstandard plays like here. There seems to be a trend at this level of min opening, not sure why?
Posted by donkeyplop

min opening on the button is fine, your guaranteed postion. min opening utg doesn't make so much sense when you'll prob end up going 4 way oop or getting squeezed a ton

KKrippler

Its never a call, think grantorino is very wrong is this situation.

Uv played these stakes enough, vs these oppo's to know your good enough to fold in these spots. Cant think of a good reason to call.

The river sizing SCREAMS ''I have a monster'' and want to get as much value as possible. In my experience when oppo's bluff, they do not do that bet sizing on the river.

GELDY

In Response to Re: Massive river overbet- nuts or bluff:

I did say mainly solid. He is capable of doing some odd/unstandard plays like here. There seems to be a trend at this level of min opening, not sure why?
Posted by donkeyplop

maybe mtt players not adjusting well to playing cash

while in mtts - live at least - I am still getting compliments when I min raise utg.

The_Don90

In Response to Re: Massive river overbet- nuts or bluff:

In Response to Re: Massive river overbet- nuts or bluff : maybe mtt players not adjusting well to playing cash while in mtts - live at least - I am still getting compliments when I min raise utg.
Posted by GELDY

min raising in mtts is completely differen. in mtts we are rarely 100/200BB deep thus when we min raise UTG we dont offer the entire world implied odds with random cards

GELDY

In Response to Re: Massive river overbet- nuts or bluff:

In Response to Re: Massive river overbet- nuts or bluff : min raising in mtts is completely differen. in mtts we are rarely 100/200BB deep thus when we min raise UTG we dont offer the entire world implied odds with random cards
Posted by The_Don90

exactly, and some peeps do not realize that