Everyone going broke here?

LARSON7

On the river here, is anyone just calling this? LARSON7	Small blind		£0.15	£0.15	£38.87
pantsbluff	Big blind		£0.30	£0.45	£12.19
	Your hole cards	6 6
Adicts89	Raise		£0.90	£1.35	£28.60
mtt	Fold
LARSON7	Call		£0.75	£2.10	£38.12
pantsbluff	Fold
Flop
		A 4 4
LARSON7	Check
Adicts89	Check
Turn
		6
LARSON7	Bet		£1.05	£3.15	£37.07
Adicts89	Call		£1.05	£4.20	£27.55
River
		10
LARSON7	Bet		£6.00	£10.20	£31.07
Adicts89	Raise		£14.10	£24.30	£13.45
LARSON7	All-in		£31.07	£55.37	£0.00
Adicts89	All-in		£13.45	£68.82	£0.00
LARSON7	Unmatched bet		£9.52	£59.30	£9.52
LARSON7	Show	6 6
Adicts89	Show	A A
Adicts89	Win	Full House, Aces and 4s	£57.50

grantorino

Reads?

Bet turn bigger

Bet river smaller. As played you are beaten when he raises loads, if readless I prob call given odds, but it's AA TT or 44 more than smaller boats or overvalued 4x. 

10NGY

Gotta ask yourself what he re-raises with here on the river. In this case its either a bluff or the nuts...Or maybe 2nd nuts (10s). He won't raise an ace here. Possibly raising A4 which we beat. But there's really no case for shoving over the top. If he's bluffing he folds, if he has it we lose more...

offshoot

Losing set over set is probably not where the major leaks are in your game. You should bet bigger on the turn.

RobIles

I like turn bet, gets value from 3s-10s which he can check back here. Hes played it pretty horribly flatting the turn going to river with a 4.20 pot. If he does this with AA he does it with A4 also. Once you overbet river and he raises his line makes sense for AA however terrible it is. I prob put it all in though

LARSON7

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here?:

I like turn bet, gets value from 3s-10s which he can check back here. Hes played it pretty horribly flatting the turn going to river with a 4.20 pot. If he does this with AA he does it with A4 also. Once you overbet river and he raises his line makes sense for AA however terrible it is. I prob put it all in though
Posted by RobIles

That was my thinking. He's slow played it to death, and was thinking if he had me beat he wouldn't have played it in such a way.

So with a rush of blood I shoved, waiting to collect the money lol

The_Don90

Larson i was unable to reply to this until today but this hand is a very interesting one. 

Ive spoke with others too over this hand.

Basically what my first thoughts are is look at our opponents line. Hes raise pre, checked flop, called our nut turn and then just over click raised over our overbet on the river. 

Now when we put all that together we have to assume they have nutting hands. So few people will bluff like this. Can we include A4 in their range, if not then i think we're almost always beat. That said i probably cant fold in game. 

Reads would be useful in this spot, but i know youve taken a shot here so your unlikely to have any. 

Best of luck

P.S. i love the overbet on the river. 

LARSON7

I had sat down at the table and the same guy doubled me up with a set of 7s, when he had AK, on an A 7 x board. So that was the only hand/ read I had on opponent.

Yeah, bearing in mind what every1s said it should just be a call to the reraise.

But he has taken such a strange line through out, just coming out with aggression on the river, that's why i thought i was good.

He has the nuts on the turn against 4th nuts, and the pot on the turn is £4!!, i don't like this line at all.

The_Don90

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here?:

I had sat down at the table and the same guy doubled me up with a set of 7s, when he had AK, on an A 7 x board. So that was the only hand/ read I had on opponent. Yeah, bearing in mind what every1s said it should just be a call to the reraise. But he has taken such a strange line through out, just coming out with aggression on the river, that's why i thought i was good. He has the nuts on the turn against 4th nuts, and the pot on the turn is £4!!, i don't like this line at all.
Posted by LARSON7

The issue is ive spoken to several people much better than me. And the basic responces we where getting said unless A4 is in their range we're beat. TT/AA more often AA. Therefore why would we call v a range that only beats us. 

The issue is though we are readless so its hard to tell that. 

ACEGOONER

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here?:

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here? : The issue is ive spoken to several people much better than me. And the basic responces we where getting said unless A4 is in their range we're beat. TT/AA more often AA. Therefore why would we call v a range that only beats us.  The issue is though we are readless so its hard to tell that. 
Posted by The_Don90

I know the villain is a TAG player, he'll open up 6-8 tables at a time. So given you know this don, are you suggesting this is an easy fold? 

Lambert180

I think it's a fold to be honest. I can't see any half decent player raising for value with a worse hand than ours, or bluffing after we've overbet the river. Even A4 probably flats tbh seen as he has the nut worst house (not counting 46 and 4T obv).

In game, dunno if I could make the fold, I might just sigh call even though I know I'm beat but 100% never 3betting all in.

rancid

when you overbet river, what do you think oppo think's about this for oppo to now raise

gonna flat all hands that u beat

gonna raise air/nutted hands

gonna be nutted the majority or do you think oppo thinks your overbet is weak ?

The_Don90

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here?:

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here? : I know the villain is a TAG player, he'll open up 6-8 tables at a time. So given you know this don, are you suggesting this is an easy fold? 
Posted by ACEGOONER

No no no, not one i can personally make. Although im not great at this "range assignment", what range would you put villian on in this spot mate? If we cant inc A4 then we cover 66, TT is possible and AA is possible i think thus making it a fold. 

Im not good enough to make that fold in 15 seconds thinking time, but ive spoken with far better players who all think it is/ 

grantorino

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here?:

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here? : No no no, not one i can personally make. Although im not great at this "range assignment", what range would you put villian on in this spot mate? If we cant inc A4 then we cover 66, TT is possible and AA is possible i think thus making it a fold.  Im not good enough to make that fold in 15 seconds thinking time, but ive spoken with far better players who all think it is/ 
Posted by The_Don90

Op gave no reads when he posted hand readless and I don't think we should fold v random sky villain at 30nl getting 3/1 when only 7 combos beat us.  Against a competent reg after hero over bets river then I think it's a fold when he gets raised

The_Don90

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here?:

im lmao here on people think u can fold  come on ffs  in game really how many are u folding  peeps only say this when they see the outcome im never folding here  if u posted the hand n said is it a call if the villain shoved every 1 would say yes  
Posted by IDONKCALLU

Ive already admitted i cant fold in game. 

However when you assign a range i dont think we're ahead often 

percival09

was discussing similar hand on another forum recently, mixed opinions. Villain is repping a super super super narrow range, all of which beats us. Now the question is, is he ever bluffing? And I doubt it strongly. I suppose we sometimes have to factor A4 into this though which maybe makes it a call

Lambert180

I've said, in game, I probably call but I wouldn't be happy about it. If I looked at it post-session like this then I might be able to find folds in future.

FWIW, a very good player commented somewhere else about this and I agree after his explanation that a call is probably the worst option. If he can be over-valuing worse houses and 4x hands, then we should jam and get value from the times he has these cos he's never folding after raising an overbet, but if he can't over-value these type of hands, then it's a fold.

Villain is probably bluffing like 0.001% of the time as played.

How many hands can he possibly have that raise for value that we beat. Assuming we're readless as OP is then I'd assume villian could open A4 from the CO, but I'm pretty much completely disregarding 4T, and 46 is pretty unlikely for most.

99.9% of people just don't overbet bluff rivers at this level like ever, so think we can assume Hero NEVER has a bluff.

I think it's fine saying you'd probably call in-game but when you look into it more, I don't see how we can call readless.

grantorino

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here?:

I've said, in game, I probably call but I wouldn't be happy about it. If I looked at it post-session like this then I might be able to find folds in future. FWIW, a very good player commented somewhere else about this and I agree after his explanation that a call is probably the worst option. If he can be over-valuing worse houses and 4x hands, then we should jam and get value from the times he has these cos he's never folding after raising an overbet, but if he can't over-value these type of hands, then it's a fold. Villain is probably bluffing like 0.001% of the time as played. How many hands can he possibly have that raise for value that we beat. Assuming we're readless as OP is then I'd assume villian could open A4 from the CO, but I'm pretty much completely disregarding 4T, and 46 is pretty unlikely for most. 99.9% of people just don't overbet bluff rivers at this level like ever, so think we can assume Hero NEVER has a bluff. I think it's fine saying you'd probably call in-game but when you look into it more, I don't see how we can call readless.
Posted by Lambert180

Without trying to figure out is raising better than calling, we need to be good more often to raise than to call

LARSON7

After the turn the pot is £4.05.

Opponent has a total monster, and has played this way to passive.

Take my hand out of the equastion, if i check the river, what is his bet pot? Bit more than pot? 3/4 pot?

Whatever way he is not getting much more value with the 2nd nuts.

It's due to the way it played, i shoved, i know the raise on the river looks super strong, but i still thought i was good. It's so hard to put him on aces or tens, outside of the action on the river.

Also, i don't think we can fold ever fold to the raise on the river, there is so many times we are good here.

On the turn, i want to get it all in, and i got my wish lol

At the end of the day, we can wait for the total nuts, but the 4th nuts isn't to shabby.

The_Don90

In Response to Re: Everyone going broke here?:

After the turn the pot is £4.05. Opponent has a total monster, and has played this way to passive. Take my hand out of the equastion, if i check the river, what is his bet pot? Bit more than pot? 3/4 pot? Whatever way he is not getting much more value with the 2nd nuts. It's due to the way it played, i shoved, i know the raise on the river looks super strong, but i still thought i was good. It's so hard to put him on aces or tens, outside of the action on the river. Also, i don't think we can fold ever fold to the raise on the river, there is so many times we are good here. On the turn, i want to get it all in, and i got my wish lol At the end of the day, we can wait for the total nuts, but the 4th nuts isn't to shabby.
Posted by LARSON7

Outside of the action on the river is exactly why i have them on this range of just AA/TT 

Lambert180

I think Borin Loner mentioned this either earlier on this thread or maybe it was another, but you're looking at the absolute strength of your hand and not the strength of your hand relative to your opponents range.

Rather than just guessing, what hands do you put in villian's range to raise your overbet on the river? Obv we know he raises with TT and AA, what other hands do you think he would raise with (that he can feasibly have after the way it played)?