NL20 standard value bet or check behind?

benc

Don't have much of a read on opponent, have been playing solid myself and i don't think we have had any significant pots before hand, oppo snapped call both streets very quickly so wasn't sure if they were uncertain with pair-two pair or drawing. Is it ok to check behind here? or do we need to bet/fold..

x	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£20.90
flamingo	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£18.76
	Your hole cards	9 9
jams88	Fold
cass3610	Call		£0.10	£0.25	£10.76
benc	Raise		£0.40	£0.65	£21.43
DARK4NIGHT	Fold
x	Call		£0.35	£1.00	£20.55
flamingo	Call		£0.30	£1.30	£18.46
cass3610	Call		£0.30	£1.60	£10.46
Flop
		J 8 9
kim1956	Check
flamingo	Check
cass3610	Check
benc	Bet		£1.20	£2.80	£20.23
x	Call		£1.20	£4.00	£19.35
flamingo	Call		£1.20	£5.20	£17.26
cass3610	Fold
Turn
		3
x	Check
flamingo	Check
benc	Bet		£3.90	£9.10	£16.33
x	Call		£3.90	£13.00	£15.45
flamingo	Fold
River
		Q
x	Check
benc	????

jugglegeek

Bet fold £6. We are looking to get value from hands like Jx, and two pair hands. The ten is a possibility, something like JT is possible it's easy to fold to a check raise on that river and it's easy for the villian to flat call a small bet on the river with worse than your holding.

RobIles

Tough to see whats the superior line. Checking behind without reads is fine. Prefer to b/f thin value hands, be such a sigh to get shoved on and have to fold for basically a min raise on river. At 10NL though hes probably leading river if he got there more often than checking as its hard for you to v-bet with much of your percieved range KJ etc. Agree with juggle bet small fold, hes going to be calling river so often with JQ i think

percival09

b/f £4ish

grantorino

Yeah b/f small

jugglegeek

BTW, this is a major leak that I have found recently in my game: Bet-calling the river in these spots "cuz I has a set yo!" (or worse shoving over a donk on the river) Rather than thinking about the hands that are actually going to do something like this on such a dangerous board. it's the difference between relative and absolute hand strength.

LnarinOO

spots like this i think are interseting to look back in a slightly different way, u may find this borin but its an interestin concept.. using combinatorics..

if we construct a combination range for getting to the turn we can then see why i think this is a check, and has no value in bettin river..

hands that get to the turn: 10x    86 combos   

      Jx      96 combos 

      4 FD   combos   

we beat 186 combos on the turn but nearly half villans range gets there on the river.. and probaly only 10% of the Jx range would call a bet.. 

bettin vs such a small % of hands that we beat, compared to total combos that got to river holds little value.. 

LARSON7

Hey Ben

There's enough in the middle as it is.

If we bet, do we really want to be in the position of getting forced to fold?

If we raise, there is little chance we will get paid by worse.

Also if you bet, an all in would be a superb bluff. I cant see any value in betting here, check and cross our fingers we are good.

benc

Thanks for the feedback everyone, idonkcallu would you pot/overbet the flop then?

benc

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind?:

spots like this i think are interseting to look back in a slightly different way, u may find this borin but its an interestin concept.. using combinatorics.. if we construct a combination range for getting to the turn we can then see why i think this is a check, and has no value in bettin river.. hands that get to the turn: 10x    86 combos          Jx      96 combos        4 FD   combos    we beat 186 combos on the turn but nearly half villans range gets there on the river.. and probaly only 10% of the Jx range would call a bet..  bettin vs such a small % of hands that we beat, compared to total combos that got to river holds little value.. 
Posted by LnarinOO

Really good post which made me think alot more about what i woule be v-betting against.

bolly580

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind?:

Hey Ben There's enough in the middle as it is. If we bet, do we really want to be in the position of getting forced to fold? If we raise, there is little chance we will get paid by worse. Also if you bet, an all in would be a superb bluff. I cant see any value in betting here, check and cross our fingers we are good.
Posted by LARSON7

way this is played oppo is basically never guna turn Jx or 2 pair into a bluff on the river. So if he check raises he always got it, plus its nl10 people will pay off light

grantorino

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind?:

spots like this i think are interseting to look back in a slightly different way, u may find this borin but its an interestin concept.. using combinatorics.. if we construct a combination range for getting to the turn we can then see why i think this is a check, and has no value in bettin river.. hands that get to the turn: 10x    86 combos          Jx      96 combos        4 FD   combos    we beat 186 combos on the turn but nearly half villans range gets there on the river.. and probaly only 10% of the Jx range would call a bet..  bettin vs such a small % of hands that we beat, compared to total combos that got to river holds little value.. 
Posted by LnarinOO

Which combos are you including?

Also if we think he donks river a lot when he gets there that means we can vbet more often

LnarinOO

all the 10x/Jx/FDcombos combos that would get to turn so A10/K10/J-10/10-10/10-9/10-8/ suited and un-suited -

 then all Jx that gets to turn, i also think that this is quite generous as alot of J-10/J9 2pair or pair+draws would raise flop or turn--but left as is cos may have a few random Jx (J-6/J-5)

then included some FD combos like QKhh Q9hh 67hh Q7hh

agree with u that we 'could' value bet but just tryin to show how narrow that range is that were tryin to get value from (or at least should be- yes i no its 10nl)..ie that amount of times we value own ourselves vs this range is -EV because even if we b/f small, the times we get called or raise by a better hand is far greater than the times he calls with a worse hand

my opinion and open to debate..=)

LnarinOO

quick EV calc using combinatoric values

so earlier i said that probally 10% of villans Jx range would/should call.. if we increase that to 20% to be' fairer', 

20% of 96 Jx combos = 19 hands calling 

all 10x hands    = 86 hands callling and winning

105 hands 18% are good and 82% are bad if called

So Ev- and given that on the most part earlier ppl would b/f small so say £5 

EV= (.18x£13)+(.82x-£5)

      2.34   +    -4.1

EV= -£1.76

so every time we make this bet were minus EV 

yb

if he took a long time to check i'd check behind lol, otherwise b/f small

grantorino

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind?:

quick EV calc using combinatoric values so earlier i said that probally 10% of villans Jx range would/should call.. if we increase that to 20% to be' fairer',  20% of 96 Jx combos = 19 hands calling  all 10x hands    = 86 hands callling and winning 105 hands 18% are good and 82% are bad if called So Ev- and given that on the most part earlier ppl would b/f small so say £5  EV= (.18x£13)+(.82x-£5)       2.34   +    -4.1 EV= -£1.76 so every time we make this bet were minus EV 
Posted by LnarinOO

We win 18 if we bet 5. 

Anyway as we can get to showdown without betting we surely need to be good better than 50% v calling range to make betting profitable (assuming he won't fold better)

LnarinOO

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind?:

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind? : We win 18 if we bet 5.  Anyway as we can get to showdown without betting we surely need to be good better than 50% v calling range to make betting profitable (assuming he won't fold better)
Posted by grantorino

if we bet and win, we win the £13 in middle.

the £13 currently in the pot is our prize. We dont count our £5 bet in this amount because it belongs to us and we cannot win what we already own.

and not sure what u mean ? 

Lambert180

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind?:

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind? : if we bet and win, we win the £13 in middle. the £13 currently in the pot is our prize. We dont count our £5 bet in this amount because it belongs to us and we cannot win what we already own. and not sure what u mean ? 
Posted by LnarinOO

I'm guessing he means we win £18 if we bet £5 and he calls.

grantorino

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind?:

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind? : if we bet and win, we win the £13 in middle. the £13 currently in the pot is our prize. We dont count our £5 bet in this amount because it belongs to us and we cannot win what we already own. and not sure what u mean ? 
Posted by LnarinOO

He has to call an extra 5 so if he calls we win 18, I'm not counting our bet.

What I mean is if we check behind  we win x% of, pot with x being percentage of time we win. Assuming he never folds better ( fair enough in this case I think), for betting to be better than checking, we have to be good 50% of time v his calling range as we win same amount when he folds as when we check behind. Or am I missing something?

LnarinOO

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind?:

In Response to Re: NL20 standard value bet or check behind? : I'm guessing he means we win £18 if we bet £5 and he calls.
Posted by Lambert180

yea that is right my bad - 

rancid

IDK

intresting debate regarding combos though )

edit:

Think oppo gets to river with more combos that we beat that will call or fold
Essentially if we bet and they fold FD combos

worked out:
96 combos we lose
102 combos we win

depends what range you give oppo, but think it matters even more so when oppo check river that we should v/b verus range. Depends if you think if oppo is good or bad enough to check a 10 on river, can't help thinking oppo would bet the ten _)

gg though very close between a check or bet