Bet Sizing, Odds to call my Shove on Turn?

Red_King

Advice here please, sattelite, vs big stack oop, with suited A.
Average stack, need a double-up to be in top 10 position.
Villain playing tight, but will jam any pair 10s or better.
Just flatted pre to gauge villain's reaction, if they check looks good.
Flopped top pair on very wet board, 3/4 pot for info, villain flat calls,
When the Q comes on the turn I have to bet or fold, still think I'm ahead.
If I am ahead here I have to charge the villain over the odds to call.

If I jam and villain is still drawing, how can they call off 1/3 stack when only 16%?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Red_King	Small blind		1250.00	1250.00	22915.00
Villain	Big blind		2500.00	3750.00	68884.50
	Your hole cards	A 2
x	Fold
xx	Fold
xxx	Fold
Red_King	Call		1250.00	5000.00	21665.00
Villain	Check
Flop
		9 A 10
Red_King	Bet		3750.00	8750.00	17915.00
Villain	Call		3750.00	12500.00	65134.50
Turn
		Q
Red_King	All-in		17915.00	30415.00	0.00
Villain	Call		17915.00	48330.00	47219.50
Red_King	Show	A 2
Villain	Show	5 J
River
		8
Villain	Win	Straight to the Queen	48330.00		95549.50

LARSON7

You have <10 bigs, shove or fold pre flop.

The_Don90

I dislike your play - ignoring the result, purely based on we have A2. Raise or fold pre. the hand ends there. Post flop is fine. Amazed you got called by worse. 

craigcu12

people say it time and time again you have >15 BB so just get the full lot in preflop otherwise fold the hand.
limping is the biggest and most common mistake in poker because what you doing is allowing free cards for the blinds and cheap calls to be made by them in the cut off and button if they holding suited connectors and weak pairs. then on the flop it is hard to know how good a hand you have.

GREGHOGG

"Just flatted pre to gauge villain's reaction, "

Worst ever reason to just make up here...

Just Jam pre is the correct play because you pick up the blinds and move onto the next hand. You can also be called by worse lots and double up, or called by better and hit and double up. Limping in with 10 bigs is passive and very bad here. 

The only other possibly acceptable reason to limp in would be to trap if someone always jams back any2 from the bb but you need a specific read for this.. best keep it simple and just ship pre! Also A2s not the best trapping hand lol

Lambert180

Shove or fold pre.

I shove

Red_King

OK, OK, OK, shove pre with any junk at 10BB, but it's a satellite,
the objective is not to win, but to qualify by gaining enough chips.

I'm 17/29 and about average chip stack, 10 get a seat,
BB is chip leader by over 20k and playing only big hands.
Simply taking the blinds does nothing for my stack overall,
taking it down on the turn puts me about 12/29, on river 6/29.
Playing it passive gets to see a cheap flop with A high, if BB has nothing.
Small risk for potential larger return, if I jam pre it's only the blinds or bust.
It's all about getting into the top 10 to get a seat, we don't have to win it.

grantorino

Don't open limp from Sb 11bb deep

Jam pre imo, you get lots of fold and have at least30% equity against nearly all hands

Also lol at small risk for potential larger return, how did that work out here? No point in limping A2 to keep pot small if you are going to go nuts when you hit an A

You got unlucky here but when you jam turn you are not going to get called by worse often imo 

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Bet Sizing, Odds to call my Shove on Turn?:

OK, OK, OK, shove pre with any junk at 10BB, but it's a satellite, the objective is not to win, but to qualify by gaining enough chips. I'm 17/29 and about average chip stack, 10 get a seat, BB is chip leader by over 20k and playing only big hands. Simply taking the blinds does nothing for my stack overall, taking it down on the turn puts me about 12/29, on river 6/29. Playing it passive gets to see a cheap flop with A high, if BB has nothing. Small risk for potential larger return, if I jam pre it's only the blinds or bust. It's all about getting into the top 10 to get a seat, we don't have to win it.
Posted by Red_King

Could almost understand if you were on the bubble (or 1 off it) and there were still a few shorties kicking about, but even then it would be a fold rather than a limp.

Nearly 66% of the field still have to be eliminated before prizes, you can't fold to a seat so just jam pre and take the chips. If nothing else, it pays for another orbit. Any opportunity to chip up in a satellite when short and not particularly close to the seats should be taken; that extra blind or so can be the difference between getting a fold or being called when you shove any marginal hand later on.

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: Bet Sizing, Odds to call my Shove on Turn?:

In Response to Re: Bet Sizing, Odds to call my Shove on Turn? : Could almost understand if you were on the bubble (or 1 off it) and there were still a few shorties kicking about, but even then it would be a fold rather than a limp. Nearly 66% of the field still have to be eliminated before prizes, you can't fold to a seat so just jam pre and take the chips. If nothing else, it pays for another orbit. Any opportunity to chip up in a satellite when short and not particularly close to the seats should be taken; that extra blind or so can be the difference between getting a fold or being called when you shove any marginal hand later on.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

this

goodylad21

Think maybe your reads were wrong...

You written 'Villain playing tight' surely he would of folded to your flop bet, if this was the case. Your hardly ever going to be bluffing with your stack & he still called with J5 lol

profman15

Hi red

Sorry but your csi=6 (sb+bb total divided into yur stack) so this is a shove with A2s in sb easily mathematically speaking.bb should fold with his hand mathematically speaking with no read/trends/aggression factors involved.
ps Would you believe that you should be shoving with top 60% of hand in sb. He should call with top 40% of calling hands. Note the shoving and calling lists are slightly different.
You really are in shove/fold mode at this csi ratio.