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Should i see this coming...
profman15
Member Posts: 1,808
Hi guys
The opponent utg had not long been at the table and we'd had two split pots up to here. The table had been tight from the start with a fair bit of limping. Certainly not many 3 bets. I'd raised whenever in the pot. Didn't really think this was an ai with csi=14 and utg could easily have me dominated. Flop comes unfavourable for me in some ways so i'm in check/fold mode. Second 7 comes on turn and i decide to take a punt as more in BB's range ..yes. Utg decides to just call. Is he wary or has AA but why not rer Turn? Flop is another 7. I make a small bet though i'm pretty sure its split. He ai's but really its not much of a bet(effective-wise).
I'm obviously calling. 76s has me stunned more because it came from utg. Its certainly not in my range but is it in his because he is a big stack and trying to be table captain?
On reflection, i think he played it very well. My turn bet has probably assured him that he's ahead and that i have an ace. Could/should i have done anything different or is it just make a note and move on?
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceMKDonsSmall blind 150.00150.009497.50profman15Big blind 300.00450.006908.75 Your hole cardsAJ@Raise600.001050.0020860.00shalerFold skip2010Call 600.001650.008355.00woody207Fold MKDonsFold profman15Call 300.001950.006608.75Flop A710@Check skip2010Check Turn 7 profman15Bet 975.002925.005633.75@@Call975.003900.0019885.00skip2010Fold River 7@Unmatched bet 14251.2515167.5014251.25profman15ShowAJ@Show76@WinFour 7s15167.50 29418.75
Comments
As played, rest of the hand seems fine.
Never folding the river ever.
You can definitely 3-bet pre-flop because there's huge monies in the middle; nearly 24% of your stack. You don't necessarily have to shove with 23BB but you obviously can't fold if you make it 10BB and your opponent shoves and if one flats it's an 'orrible spot on the flop. Shoving is probably better than 3-betting smaller.
Whether to 3-bet should be decided entirely on the basis of the range of your opponents. If you know that the UTG player is opening a wide range, then shoving is definitely best to claim the dead money. Obviously the call in late position doesn't figure to be too strong too often. If you don't know that the UTG player has such a wide range, then calling isn't so bad.
I don't like the suggestion that you're calling pre-flop to check-fold an Ace-high flop, though. If you're so uncertain of the strength of your hand against the UTG raiser's range, then just fold pre-flop. You don't have anywhere near a deep enough stack to be looking to flop two-pair or better. As it is, when you flop top-pair, Jack kicker you need to have some confidence in your hand. Check-calling is fine, check-folding is not.
After the turn the outcome is pretty inevitable. I would be betting the turn and betting the river. I wouldn't bet the river quite so big, if I were you, because I'd want to get a call from a hand I can actually beat and I think it's tough for our opponent to call with just a Ten or KK when we bet such a large portion of our stack.
I might bet around 1k on the river but I don't think I'd ever be folding to a shove. Only 7x, TT and AA are beating us.
It's interesting because we need him to be holding a bare Ace 49% of the time for this call to be break-even, assuming that he never shoves worse than that. As played, we're calling 3.7k to win only half of the 15k pot. There may be some argument for folding depending on how nitty we think our opponent is. It's not an argument I'd be making though. lol
What other hands do you dnok lead 3way? How do you react if you get your donk lead raised?
Don't you think someone will c-bet alot wider with weaker hands (and we can just call with a strong hand) than the range of hands that would call a bet?
Initial raiser pre doesnt CC a wet flop which smacks into the range of most calling hands pre. He then flats the turn.... and comes over the top on the end. IMO he's either holding AA or a 7. Any other A combo and he'd 100% be betting the flop.
Just me?
Im too tight arent I...
+1
The clinic is all about helping players understand why we make certain plays. Anyone can say do this or do that but without the fundamental reasoning people will start to make these plays in the wrong spots and not knowing why, which will then lead to losing money.
I am not saying donk leading here is wrong, just saying that if it is an option we need to know why it is the right one in your opinion.
As I've said, we need him to have a bare Ace 49% of the time. Readless I can't fold. I doubt I'd fold even if I'd bet less on the river.