Would you ever fold a flopped set.

jordz16

I have lost a few pots lately in tournies and cash where i have flopped a set, on a really wet board managed to get it all in on the flop, and ended up losing to the flush/straight draws/bigger sets....  If the board was say 10 j q all hearts, and your sitting there with a set of 10's can you ever fold against one opponent even if you are 100 or 200 bbs deep?. so far i haven't found a fold but when you know higher sets, straights, and flushes are all in your opponents range can folding be a good play??

would be great to have some input. thanks

profman15

Hi J

You still have 53% equity v flush draw+str draw and greater still v two pair hands etc. You are behind v flopped flush but have 32% equity on the flop. Against JJ is where your problem starts with only 9% equity. So when are you going to know what you're up against? Well you're not really are you? That's why you see even good players get caught out. Btw J its only hands that are in players range...its the combination of flop and his hand that makes the sets etc so possibly utg and Hj are more likely to have such hands as a wider range is played by the other positions.

I can't help feeling that at best all you can do is make an assessment of the type of player your opponent is and his position to give you an inkling about making a pro type telepathic  laydown but tbh you have flopped a monster and are most likely ahead so pretty much have to go with it, i'm afraid, 99% of the time imo.

PS considering with a pair you only flop a srt about 12% of the time it's very unlikely to get set over set isn't it?

jordz16

thanks for the feedback, what it was, i had 2 sets over sets in 2 big tournies last night, both times i just felt i was behind but also felt i couldnt fold because it was general bad play. I think over time getting it in will make money i was just wondering if anyone makes a case for being able to fold, if higher sets and flopped runs make up a big percentage of opponents range

DeucesLive

If you have bottom set, yes- it is possible to fold. But before you get carried away making hero laydowns to every raise, there are a whole heap of conditions that need to be met first.

#1- Opponent has to be super tight. I mean like, so tight that he never raises without the stone cold nuts. In this case, you could look at folding.

#2- Super wet board. The board needs to be monotone with 3 closely connected high cards- if I have 33 on a 356 monotone board, I'll find it almost impossible to ever lay that down, because there's so many more hands that beat in the equation. When it comes 9JQ and you hold 99, all of a sudden all kinds of high connecting cards are getting involved. 

#3- Very very deep stacks, at least 100bbs, and a lot of action on the flop- preferably multiway. If there's 3/4 players on the flop, a couple have shown interest, they're very tight players and the board is mega wet, you have the circumstances to fold your set sometimes. But this is literally how specific you need the situation to be- and it's going to be incredibly rare that this happens in a tournament. Even then, it's probably early stages of the tournament- you might just want to take the gamble to get a triple up early if you hit your house.

tl;dr, I'd fold a set on a flop maybe one in a thousand times. Considering the amount of times you flop a set, you won't fold many.

davelufc

I think people can get too attatched to sets, you need to look at the board texture and oppo`s betting patterns.

Oppo must have known i had something here when i called pot sized bet on the flop and turn, still hard to lay down a set.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
bri676	Small blind		10.00	10.00	5040.00
xxxx	Big blind		20.00	30.00	5000.00
	Your hole cards	Q A
gritpipe	Fold
davelufc	Raise		60.00	90.00	4940.00
kenny1957	Call		60.00	150.00	4900.00
fr4nkie	Call		60.00	210.00	4910.00
bri676	Fold
xxxx	Raise		80.00	290.00	4920.00
davelufc	Call		40.00	330.00	4900.00
kenny1957	Call		40.00	370.00	4860.00
fr4nkie	Call		40.00	410.00	4870.00
Flop
		9 6 8
xxxx	Bet		410.00	820.00	4510.00
davelufc	Call		410.00	1230.00	4490.00
kenny1957	Fold
fr4nkie	Fold
Turn
		7
xxxx	Bet		1230.00	2460.00	3280.00
davelufc	Call		1230.00	3690.00	3260.00
River
		J
xxxx	All-in		3280.00	6970.00	0.00
davelufc	All-in		3260.00	10230.00	0.00
xxxx	Unmatched bet		20.00	10210.00	20.00
xxxx	Show	9 9
davelufc	Show	Q A
davelufc	Win	Flush to the Ace	10210.00		10210.00

 

GELDY

Nice bragpost dave

but yes there are times and places

just not many

I remember a final table

of a main or mini event

I had AA on an Axy board

but they had flopped the straight

have to get it all in

nh gg next. .......

profman15

Him Dave

Like the hand but lets be fair , you touched very lucky here(certainly i don't understand such a piffling raise of your bet pre). He flopped top set and is oop as he must bet first,  so what can he do but bet. He may start to get a sick feeling in his stomach by the turn call but meh, as they say. What did you put him on btw? You know even against the nut flush he still has 32% equity when the flop hits. 

hhyftrftdr

The example from Davey is when it is possible (almost fairly easy) to fold a set. Not on the flop but the turn is about the worst card in the deck for 99 and he should def slow down a bit. Absolutely no need to stack off on the river, 99 is beating almost nothing by then. 

In general, folding a flopped set is dirty. A funky run out might save our stack/lose us value but set over set is nigh on impossible to get away from.

calcalfold

Yes I would fold a flopped set, rarely, but if I had like 77 on 789 mono tone and it went raise, re raise, re raise Im outa there.