Based on my reads, is this bluff a profitable play?

skeg01

I get dealt suited one gappers in the small blind facing a raise from the button, i decide to 3bet and he 4bets me.. I had notes on oppo saying he was raising a lot of buttons, capable of barrelling, competent player etc etc and i also noticed that when he 4bet me, he did it rather quickly which i thought was a tell that he wasn't that strong. So i thought a 5bet shove would make him fold a lot of the time to make it a profitable play, am i right? I know this is 5nl but the oppo is a reg and a pretty decent player and i'm confident he would fold hands like 1010, AQs, maybe even JJ and AKo etc in this spot.

Also, what about my choice of hand to do this with? Rather do it with suited connectors/gappers rather than a small pocket pair or complete air etc?

Seat 1: sapfyra1989 ($0.93 in chips)
Seat 3: GTpoker200 ($1.14 in chips)
Seat 6: Vidas2801 ($1.18 in chips)
Seat 8: Cho84neva ($5.18 in chips)
Seat 10: Hero ($6.13 in chips)

Hero: SB $0.02
sapfyra1989: BB $0.05

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8c 6c]

GTpoker200: Fold
Vidas2801: Fold
Cho84neva: Raise To $0.15
Hero: Raise To $0.45
sapfyra1989: Fold
Cho84neva: Raise To $1.00
Hero: Raise To $6.13 (all-in)
Cho84neva: Not telling you what he did, it's in my diary if you want to know haha.

BorinLoner

What "competent", "pretty decent" player would 4-bet AK, JJ, TT or AQ intending to fold to a shove? If he's 4-betting any of those hands, he's probably not folding them.

Without knowing more of the dynamic between you it's tough to say which hands he's 4-betting. However, if you think he's going to 4-bet-fold any of those hands, I'd say you probably need to reassess your thinking. If you'd said he could be 4-betting any old trash because you've been 3-betting light a lot and there's that sort of dynamic between you, then this 5-bet might not be so bad. Generally speaking though, you should prefer to have some sort of blocker card, like an Ax or Kx hand. That way, it's less likely that the villain has a massive hand. Doing this with a small pocket pair would be ill-advised because you'd be turning a decent value hand into a bluff, therefore wasting it's value.

It's not enough to think that your opponent could be playing a wide range, here. You have to think that he believes you are 3-betting light and therefore he may 4-bet light. Thinking he's going to 4-bet-fold premium hands is probably going to get you in trouble.

The fact that he's acted quickly only tells you that he likely had an easy decision or had made his mind up as to how he was going to respond to a 3-bet before it came back to him. That shouldn't be a sign of weakness, necessarily, although it certainly should polarise his range. Generally speaking, of course, a 4-bet is much more likely to be genuine strength than weakness... Having a read that he raises a lot of buttons is quite different from having a read that he 4-bets light versus your 3-bets.

skeg01

In Response to Re: Based on my reads, is this bluff a profitable play?:

What "competent", "pretty decent" player would 4-bet AK, JJ, TT or AQ intending to fold to a shove? If he's 4-betting any of those hands, he's probably not folding them. Without knowing more of the dynamic between you it's tough to say which hands he's 4-betting. However, if you think he's going to 4-bet-fold any of those hands, I'd say you probably need to reassess your thinking. If you'd said he could be 4-betting any old trash because you've been 3-betting light a lot and there's that sort of dynamic between you, then this 5-bet might not be so bad. Generally speaking though, you should prefer to have some sort of blocker card, like an Ax or Kx hand. That way, it's less likely that the villain has a massive hand. Doing this with a small pocket pair would be ill-advised because you'd be turning a decent value hand into a bluff, therefore wasting it's value. It's not enough to think that your opponent could be playing a wide range, here. You have to think that he believes you are 3-betting light and therefore he may 4-bet light. Thinking he's going to 4-bet-fold premium hands is probably going to get you in trouble. The fact that he's acted quickly only tells you that he likely had an easy decision or had made his mind up as to how he was going to respond to a 3-bet before it came back to him. That shouldn't be a sign of weakness, necessarily, although it certainly should polarise his range. Generally speaking, of course, a 4-bet is much more likely to be genuine strength than weakness... Having a read that he raises a lot of buttons is quite different from having a read that he 4-bets light versus your 3-bets.
Posted by BorinLoner

**** finally, been trying to get your post to appear for ages its finally happened! haha.

I was confident that he would be 4betting light quite a high percentage of the time in this spot, i was sure he knew that i'm capable of 3betting light especially out of the small blind to a button raise. We've played a lot of pots together, which considering it is speed poker i play, the fact i know that just tells you how many times i've played against him lol :P

Well i didn't really think he would 4bet fold premium hands, obviously not QQ+ and probably not JJ now i've had time to think about it, not certain about 10,10 now after what you said lol. But i was confident he was folding other hands, i can't really remember exactly what i was thinking at the time because it was last night and i've had a few beers since hahaha.

I just thought he would have air or fold a decent hand most of time, so i wen't for it thinking it would be profitable and even if i was completely wrong and he snap called me with AA or whatever, i would still have a decent chance of winning with a hand that flops well.

He snap folded after i 5bet though, phew! Definitely curious to what hand he had exactly though lol.

gazza127

This is never a profitable play.  If he folds you win a small pot. If he calls youre probably going to lose a big pot.

chicknMelt

If you think they will fold all but TT, JJ, QQ, AA, AK, AQ, you have about 30% equity against that range

The big question is, how many hands are they 4betting with that they would fold
 
If he is 4betting light a 3rd of the time against you, and will fold ( i guess is about right if you have some agro history between each other)

when called equity = £10.41(pot) * 0.3(equity) = £3.12
                              5.18(effective stack) - 3.12 (equity) = -2.06
--------------------------

When they fold equity = + £1.5

----------------------------

so total equity would be:
 
(Equity when called* 0.66) + (Equity when fold * 0.33)

-2.06*0.66 = -1.36
1.5*0.33 = 0.5

Total equity = -1.36 + 0.5 = -0.86

so if my estimations are right, you will lose 86p on average everytime you make that play.

you would need them to be 4bet bluffing more than 50% of the time to make it even close to break even, so I'd say this is a definate losing play in the long run.

skeg01

Impressive how you worked that out lol, would be difficult trying to work that out in 20 seconds before your time runs out though on the table :P

Oh well, even if it wasn't profitable, it was certainly fun, i enjoyed it haha.

Lambert180

You don't work it out at the table, you work it out off the table afterwards and then go ... ahh didn't realise that was so bad, I won't do it again.

It's all about constant plugging leaks in your game and this imo is a bad one.

Batkin88

In Response to Re: Based on my reads, is this bluff a profitable play?:

You don't work it out at the table, you work it out off the table afterwards and then go ... ahh didn't realise that was so bad, I won't do it again. It's all about constant plugging leaks in your game and this imo is a bad one.
Posted by Lambert180

+1 this will cost you over time even without sitting there working it all out it is pretty straight forward. It will look pretty for the cameras however!

F_Ivanovic

@chickenmelt: You need them to be 4bet/folding more than 50% of the time, not 4-bet bluffing more than 50%. People do 4bet/fold hands like 99-JJ and AQ at these levels as they don't realise it's a mistake. They just sometimes think that they must be behind and so fold their hand.

This play might be therefore worthwhile. Even if it turns out it's a 0ev play you might potentially get more action in the future because of making this play now.

That said, at such low levels there's rarely any need for this FPS play. You probably won't play a lot of the same villains, and villains that you do play probably won't realise what your image is anyway. Much better off just playing mostly ABC poker. So bet when you have it and don't bet when you don't!

chicknMelt

@F_Ivanovic - you make some good points. Esp about setting a table image. I would reserve setting a table image with a play that isnt quite so bad though (sorry Skeg )... this one will cost you >15bb on average! agreed about this not being a move for low stakes too.

Your right, I do mean 4bet folding rather than 4bet bluffing in my last sentance, thanks for clarifying.

 4bet folding those types of hands isnt always a mistake, depends how deep you are, your opponents 5bet range and the bet sizing. for example: 

100bb effective

hero raises to 2.5bb

villan 3bets to  7bb. pot =9.5bb

hero 4bets to 20bb. pot=27bb

villan 5bets all in for 100bb, pot is 120bb

lets say you pretty certain the villan is only doing this with QQ+ and AK, you have TT. your equity against their range is 36.41%.

to call it costs 80bb, which will make the pot 200bb... so 80/200 is your equity needed to call (40%).

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Based on my reads, is this bluff a profitable play?:

Impressive how you worked that out lol, would be difficult trying to work that out in 20 seconds before your time runs out though on the table :P Oh well, even if it wasn't profitable, it was certainly fun, i enjoyed it haha.
Posted by skeg01

what do you mean - it only took me 18 seconds to type

I guess this is why they call playing poker for living a grind - the most fun moves aren't normally the best.