I need some serious HELP

BURNShurtz

iv gone down hill, have not cashed or won a tourney for almost two years and getting really feed up playing. I don't even know why, im not playing any different.
Take tonight as good example, played in a £1 deepstack, pretty much card dead the whole time.
Went allin 4 times
3x ahead
1x behind

lost 3, won 1.

and i cant win a flip if im ahead or behind. but when im playing thats all i see is other players getting good things happening to them. It winds me up big time that they can do the same as me with the same cards but  their good hands hold up and when they are behind they hit to go on and win. and its everytime i play, every tourney, some outcome day in day out.
probable a good job i dont play live.

Die_hard

You need to post a few HH's with some table dynamics for people to have a look at.

BorinLoner

Not all the players getting it in bad are winning. You're just registering the ones that do and thinking "why can't I do that?". You don't see that they donk off their stack as soon as you or they are moved tables.

MTT's are super-high variance and most people don't appreciate that. To win in them you have to survive all the times you get it in behind, all the times you get it in flipping AND all the time you get it in good. Even if you get it in good every single time, odds are that you still won't win in any individual tournament.

I find that Sklansky dollars are a good way of illustrating the point:

E.g.

You have AK and get it all-in for 1000 chips, pre-flop, versus KQ:

The pot is 2000 and you have 70% equity. That means that 1400 of those chips are yours.

Take away your own buy-in and you win 400 chips from this situation. That's your EV here.


People tend to look at these situations as being "I got my money in best, I deserve to win it all" but in reality you only "deserve" to add 40% to your stack on average. That's in one of the best situations you can find in poker but you don't win as much as a lot of people expect.

Obviously if you already knew that, it's kind of patronising to write it out for you. Sorry if that's the case but I find it's usually helpful for people getting frustrated about their results.

BURNShurtz

In Response to Re: I need some serious HELP:

Not all the players getting it in bad are winning. You're just registering the ones that do and thinking "why can't I do that?". You don't see that they donk off their stack as soon as you or they are moved tables. MTT's are super-high variance and most people don't appreciate that. To win in them you have to survive all the times you get it in behind, all the times you get it in flipping AND all the time you get it in good. Even if you get it in good every single time, odds are that you still won't win in any individual tournament. I find that Sklansky dollars are a good way of illustrating the point: E.g. You have AK and get it all-in for 1000 chips, pre-flop, versus KQ: The pot is 2000 and you have 70% equity. That means that 1400 of those chips are yours. Take away your own buy-in and you win 400 chips from this situation. That's your EV here. People tend to look at these situations as being "I got my money in best, I deserve to win it all" but in reality you only "deserve" to add 40% to your stack on average. That's in one of the best situations you can find in poker but you don't win as much as a lot of people expect. Obviously if you already knew that, it's kind of patronising to write it out for you. Sorry if that's the case but I find it's usually helpful for people getting frustrated about their results.
Posted by BorinLoner

im just unlucky, simple as that really.

Die_hard

In Response to Re: I need some serious HELP:

In Response to Re: I need some serious HELP : im just unlucky, simple as that really.
Posted by BURNShurtz

If that's your reasoning then you're better off playing snap. 

tomo_efc

If you're like me of old when running bad, you go all-in and in the back of your mind you've already lost.

Now, although no one wants to loose, i take it with a pinch of salt.

Don't play if you don't feel confident, but when you are running well try and get the most out of it.

It will come.