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Call? Shove? Fold?

waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,084
edited August 2013 in The Poker Clinic
Hand from tonights Orfordable. We are the top 2 stacks, so really don't want or need this clash. I had 3 bet their raises twice in the last few orbits, but I did have KK and AA. This could have affected the oppos play here, thinking that I was weak and had been caught out. Hate the river! But can I fold? What is the correct play here?
Is the check a mistake? There are 18 players left, 13 cash and we are the top 2.
waller02 Small blind  1500.00 1500.00 94527.48
Shelly89 Big blind  3000.00 4500.00 82715.63
  Your hole cards
  • Q
  • Q
     
bugsytwo Fold     
SBBonj Fold     
IDONKCALLU Fold     
Batkin88 Fold     
timeforbed Fold     
brass777 Fold     
katali Fold     
waller02 Raise  6000.00 10500.00 88527.48
Shelly89 Call  4500.00 15000.00 78215.63
Flop
   
  • 5
  • 6
  • 4
     
waller02 Bet  9000.00 24000.00 79527.48
Shelly89 Call  9000.00 33000.00 69215.63
Turn
   
  • Q
     
waller02 Bet  21000.00 54000.00 58527.48
Shelly89 Call  21000.00 75000.00 48215.63
River
   
  • J
     
waller02 Check     
Shelly89 Bet  37500.00 112500.00 10715.63
waller02 ? 
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Comments

  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    edited August 2013
    Calling seems too nitty plus leaves us with a bowl of rice if we're behind. Shoving feels like we only get called by the flush/flopped straight. Bet/folding a set of queens feels dirty.

    Does villain have it in him/her to double float and rep the river scare card? They are never gonna think you're as strong as 3 Q's. And with the previous 2 hands you mention, they might be looking to get one over you. 

    I think I cross my fingers, and click the right button. I think.
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  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,084
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Call? Shove? Fold?:
    Calling seems too nitty plus leaves us with a bowl of rice if we're behind. Shoving feels like we only get called by the flush/flopped straight. Bet/folding a set of queens feels dirty. Does villain have it in him/her to double float and rep the river scare card? They are never gonna think you're as strong as 3 Q's. And with the previous 2 hands you mention, they might be looking to get one over you.  I think I cross my fingers, and click the right button. I think.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    The bowl of rice you mention is still not too far off the average stack. The structure here isn't that great and ave stack is prob only 20bb at this stage. Awful spot against the only stack who can ruin me though....agreed?? lol
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  • GELDYGELDY Member Posts: 5,203
    edited August 2013
    think the river should be b/f

    you could put in a value bet of 25-30,000 and if they shove it's unlikely to be a bluff. if you're lucky it'll be another b/c and you find out where you are and with a playable stack if they have it.

    as played your check on the river shows weakness which they might be exploiting. hence their range widens and probably prices you in to make the call.

    prefer call to shove as a chip and a chair is better than no chip
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  • Batkin88Batkin88 Member Posts: 1,682
    edited August 2013
    Don't remember this hand but this is a fold IMO they are ahead here and you have a stack to pick easier spots.
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  • bearlytherbearlyther Member Posts: 1,757
    edited August 2013
    Check call river value betting here would be too thin the villans range here either consists of made hands which already have us beat and also some bluffs so leading out on the river doesnt serve any purpose.  There range does consist of some flush draws so were going to be behind some of the time but some draws also missed so its a great card for them to rep if theve missed their draw or decide to turn their hand into a bluff. 
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  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,084
    edited August 2013
    4 replies, each one with a different answer from very good, profitable players. No wonder I wasn't sure what to do on the river lol
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  • Batkin88Batkin88 Member Posts: 1,682
    edited August 2013
    Ha the way I look at it is the villain if I remember rightly was very loose but always bet small so she/he has something here. Only hand you are beating is QJ I don't think they are betting set here my money is on one of these three hands. 78dd A7dd or A3dd
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  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 9,084
    edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Call? Shove? Fold?:
    Ha the way I look at it is the villain if I remember rightly was very loose but always bet small so she/he has something here. Only hand you are beating is QJ I don't think they are betting set here my money is on one of these three hands. 78dd A7dd or A3dd
    Posted by Batkin88
    winner!........but you were on the table so slight advantage
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