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River Decision
LARSON7
Member Posts: 4,494
Can we ever call the river here?
It is such a dry board, the over bet shove on the river, it just looks so much like an over pair.
You hardly ever see four bets, when he made such a small over bet straight away it screamed of aces or kings.
Tournies just started, no reads whatsoever.
I was thinking, there would be far better spots than this. Would be interesting to hear what others think of the hand:)
It is such a dry board, the over bet shove on the river, it just looks so much like an over pair.
You hardly ever see four bets, when he made such a small over bet straight away it screamed of aces or kings.
Tournies just started, no reads whatsoever.
I was thinking, there would be far better spots than this. Would be interesting to hear what others think of the hand:)
| bromhead08 | Small blind | 10.00 | 10.00 | 5000.00 | |
| myrrdhin | Big blind | 20.00 | 30.00 | 4690.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| nathan1974 | Raise | 60.00 | 90.00 | 4940.00 | |
| garyamaru | Fold | ||||
| leedsfan19 | Fold | ||||
| larson7 | Raise | 140.00 | 230.00 | 4830.00 | |
| bromhead08 | Call | 130.00 | 360.00 | 4870.00 | |
| myrrdhin | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | 160.00 | 520.00 | 4780.00 | |
| LARSON7 | Call | 80.00 | 600.00 | 4750.00 | |
| bromhead08 | Call | 80.00 | 680.00 | 4790.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| bromhead08 | Check | ||||
| x | Bet | 340.00 | 1020.00 | 4440.00 | |
| LARSON7 | Call | 340.00 | 1360.00 | 4410.00 | |
| bromhead08 | Fold | ||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| x | Bet | 680.00 | 2040.00 | 3760.00 | |
| LARSON7 | Call | 680.00 | 2720.00 | 3730.00 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| x | All-in | 3760.00 | 6480.00 | 0.00 | |
| LARSON7 | Fold | ||||
| x | Muck | ||||
| x | Win | 2720.00 | 2720.00 | ||
| x | Return | 3760.00 | |||
Comments
Pre-flop what do we make of the min-4-bet? We're readless, but which of these assumptions sounds more reasonable of a pre-flop 4-bet?:
i) 4-bets should be assumed to be strong until we see otherwise.
ii) 4-bets should be assumed not to be strong until we see otherwise.
I think we should assume that the 4-bet, 250BB deep is likely to be strong, meaning a range something like AK, QQ, KK, AA.
If that's the range we're giving him, then we should probably fold pre-flop but I understand why we call, with it being such a small amount more and having the button. Our hand has some chunky reverse implied odds, though, so we need to be very wary of one pair hands. We should want to keep the pot pretty small post-flop, if possible. I still prefer a fold pre-flop.
Post-flop; obviously with TPTK on the flop, we're not folding to a single barrel having made the call pre-flop.
On the turn, what do we think he's still betting with? If we're assuming he's playing a tight range and he's barrelling two streets, what do we beat? AK? Aside from that, his range is crushing us. Even those AK hands have a decent amount of equity. I think it's definitely time to fold here, readless.
Having called the turn, I think it's a bit of a mistake to fold the blank river. We were calling the turn hoping he was holding AK or weaker, which has now missed. If he's barrelled two streets and put so much money in, we should have expected there's a good chance he's going to put the rest in on the river. Folding the river now would need an admission that we made a mistake on the turn. Admitting that mistake is fine but the thread title seems to suggest you don't think the turn was a mistake.
So I'd fold pre-flop or fold the turn. If we're calling the turn it should be because we think he's 4-betting then barrelling light. If we have that read, then calling the turn should be followed by calling the river. We don't have that read, though.
Either way, I think it was a mistake to call the turn and then fold the river. The mistake was either a) folding at all or b) not folding earlier. Readless, I think the mistake is not folding earlier.
Pre-flop I think we can just flat with AQ OTB. I think 3-betting is bad because we narrow what is already going to be a tight UTG opening range. By flatting, we keep his range wider and keep in worse queens/worse aces. If there had been other callers in the pot then by call means you should be ISO'ing with AQ, but given you're OTB and it's only you and UTG in the pot atm, calling is probably best. Once we've 3-bet and been 4bet I think we can fold. Yes, it's not much more and we have a strong looking hand but as BL said we're going to be in a reversed implied odds situation a lot post-flop. Unless it comes QQx or AQx we're never going to be that happy putting much money in, and are likely going to want to be in cheap showdown mode. Would much prefer a SC hand or a medium pair where I can potentially flop huge. Being IP though I think a call can be OK though if you want.
Flop call is fine, but I probably just fold the turn. River is a clear fold even though it looks strange/almost bluffy as the general unknown player won't 4bet pre and fire 3 barrels as a bluff.
Thanks everyone.
Everyone is right, i should just have flatted pre with position.
The call on the turn, maybe a bit dubious, i'm hoping for a cheap showdown. Shoulda folded.
Borinloner, i would disagree with you saying we have called the turn so have to call the river.
There is no point calling (the river) for my tournie life when there is a high percentage chance we are beat, i'm only really beating a bluff.
There are far better spots than this.
If we're calling the turn, it has to be because we believe oppo has 4-bet pre-flop and barrelled two streets light. If we're thinking that his range is tight - AA, KK, QQ and AK - Then calling the turn is a mistake.
However, if we're calling the turn because we think this opponent 4-bets light and barrels light on two streets, we should also be expecting a river bet a huge proportion of the time. We also have to bear in mind the hand we're representing. Having flatted a min-4-bet pre-flop to go three-handed, then flatted two half-pot bets, we look like we have exactly what we have. The shove isn't something we should be surprised by. We can hope he's going to check and give up on the river, but the likelihood is that he won't.
Triple-barrelling ranges are different to double-barrelling ranges, but this is a 4-bet pot. If we assume oppo can 4-bet light, we have to assume he triple-barrels light, too.
So if we're calling the turn, then folding the river, we're definitely making a mistake at some point. Either oppo's range is wide on the turn and the river is unlikely to improve that, or his range is tight on the turn.
As I said, readless it's a fold pre-flop or on the turn and we shouldn't be assuming that he's 4-betting and barrelling light. Making the turn call has to mean that we're giving him a wide range.
Have a long think about calling the turn. And if you think the turn call is right, you cannot then fold to the river shove - it just makes no sense to do so if you have decided a call turn was correct.
If you find out you are beat, then you can put it down to your thought process on the turn (unless villain has 55 as this would mean your turn thought process was correct), because once we have got to the river and seeing this card. The calldown is the right play by default.
nb. I am not looking into how you played the hand as a whole. I am merely stating that as played the river needs to be called.
As played I don't think you can fold the river after calling the turn, I think you can fold the turn though. As played I would tink you are miles ahead here so would call.
Cant see someone overbetting AA or KK here but ive been wrong before.