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Give up at then end?
gazza127
Member Posts: 2,156
Oppo is a bit loose. After my raise on the turn being called I put him on possibly an overpair or single pair on flop.
Should I just check and give up at the end?
Thoughts about my line?
Should I just check and give up at the end?
Thoughts about my line?
| hurst05 | Small blind | £0.25 | £0.25 | £115.30 | |
| Die_hard | Big blind | £0.50 | £0.75 | £123.68 | |
| HawCrux | Sit out | ||||
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| rossybee16 | Fold | ||||
| XX | Raise | £1.50 | £2.25 | £114.70 | |
| gazza127 | Call | £1.50 | £3.75 | £176.04 | |
| hurst05 | Fold | ||||
| Die_hard | Fold | ||||
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| XX | Bet | £3.00 | £6.75 | £111.70 | |
| gazza127 | Call | £3.00 | £9.75 | £173.04 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| XX | Bet | £5.50 | £15.25 | £106.20 | |
| gazza127 | Raise | £15.88 | £31.13 | £157.16 | |
| XX | Call | £10.38 | £41.51 | £95.82 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| XX | Check | ||||
| gazza127 ? | |||||
Comments
Why did you raise the turn?
I think you should have river plan in your mind before you make the turn raise, so you know what you're going to do on different cards.
I don't think you can give up here as played, unless u decide to accept the turn mistake, cut your losses, and hope your sdv is enough.
As played I'd have to bet anything around £30
If we think villain flats our turn raise with an overpair or even just a pair on board, which hands are we bluffing him off? Clearly we're not likely to be raising our 7 for value, so we're turning our hand into a bluff... If he's not folding one-pair hands, what's the sense in the bluff?
So if we're not ruling out one pair hands after raising the turn, raising the turn was probably an error. Unless we can assume that the only one pair hands that continue are one-pair hands with an 8 for the OESD, then we shouldn't raise the turn.
Erm, on the river I'd say check back... If we're giving him a range of better made hands, he's most likely not calling turn and folding the blank river. He's much more likely to be giving us a chance to bluff again. Check back and hope he shows you a missed draw, I think. There are so few better hands that call turn and fold river: Only those one-pair with an 8 hands.
Or this guy could be bad. You just said "loose". Bad players fold this river more often than good players, I should think.
I suppose my raise on the turn is a semi-bluff. I have no idea where I am in the hand and I'd like the initiative (maybe to make him fold) with the knowledge that I have a load of outs if things do get tricky. My range here includes sets and two pairs and possibly even a made straight so I expect oppo to give me credit most of the time and fold. Then he called... and the river is a brick... and I still didnt know where I am in the hand, but knew I had shown a lot of strength and think I can shift him off many average hands.
So I barrelled the river £25 and got called by 98.
Don't bluff people that don't fold.
Seriously, I can't see the argument for barrelling the river unless we think the opponent is bad. A good player will not fold many better hands having called the turn. The only ones that make sense to call turn/fold blank river are those pairs with an 8, of which there are few since we have an 8 (He actually had that and still didn't fold. At least this tells you not to try this again vs this villain).
It's definitely a mistake to raise turn if we're going to be called by everything better and fold out everything worse, apart from draws. However, having got to the river, if we think his range is just better made hands and missed draws, I think continuing the bluff is another mistake against a competent opponent.
"I have no idea where I am in the hand..."
I really don't like this phrase. You shouldn't really care "where you are" in the hand if you're semi-bluffing the turn. All we need to know is a) which hands villain could be playing up to this point, and b) which hands villain continues with if we raise.
So if villain continues to a raise with all better hands and folds all worse apart from draws, then raising is bad. We want him to fold lots of better hands and maybe call with some worse ones (draws). If we don't know which of those is true, then we're playing against someone we have no reads on and should probably keep the pot small.
If we do know which of those scenarios is going to happen and it's the bad one for us, then we shouldn't raise.
It's good we think about the hands we're repping on the turn but we also think he's calling turn with just one pair. So we don't believe that this villain is thinking about our range too much? Or this villain is aware our turn raising range isn't as tight as we'd like him to believe?
If you were villain facing a turn raise and you were sat there with 9x/Tx/overpairs, I'm assuming you'd probably call a good % of the time? But then when the river comes (a non-scare card) and hero barrles again, you have to be thinking you're probably not going to be good too often. At least that's what I'd think and I'd strongly consider folding my overpairs. Especially if faced with an overbetshove which fwiw I think could be a good play here.
Why do I think overbetting is (potentially) good here? Well, villains range is pretty capped when he calls the turn to bluff-catchers/draws. If we overbet here with a range that includes mostly sets/2-prs/straights and then some bluffs, villain will be making a mistake if he calls because against our entire range he just won't be making money.
Obviously though, this hinges on our opponent being a thinking "reasonable" villain. If he's not, and you think he'll bluff catch even to an overbet, then we could just exploititvely jam only our made hands here on the river.
I dont think villain is always calling the turn with a hand that beats me to call a bet on the river. Prime example is the hand hes holding (pair+draw), so when I raise and show strength on the turn theoretically he should assume he is only playing his draw. So yes I think I can fold out hands that beat me on the river. Perhaps my river bet was too small. Imagine if you were villain and cant see my cards... what am I repping? Hands that beat yours.
So im just a bit confused why he pretty much snap called the river, and wondered if I had played it badly?
If we think villain is reasonable and thinking, he's going to adapt to us, too. We can say that hero jams river with big hands and some bluffs, but that makes it very likely that villain just folds turn... however we're getting into some serious dynamics there - Dynamics not present in OP's information. The dynamics, as described, are that we think villain is playing a bluff-catcher or a draw, as you say. Meaning he thinks we're bluffing often enough for his turn call to be good...
If we're the villain calling the turn with a value hand and checking the blank river, it's going to be to allow hero to bet his missed draws, readless. So if villain is holding a bluff catcher, then why should hero bluff? If villain is holding a missed draw, why should hero bluff?
If I was villain holding a marginal hand, I wouldn't be calling the turn hoping to see a scare card on the river. In those circumstances the only hands I'd beat would be hero's air. All his value raising range on the turn would beat me and at least some of his semi-bluffing hands would now beat me, too. If I'm not calling turn hoping to see a scare card, then I'm calling to see a non-scare card. I'm certainly not calling expecting hero to check back blank rivers since his value raising range is beating me already and I can't expect someone semi-bluffing the turn to just give up on the river. Sometimes they do just give up - possibly rightly so - but more often they don't.
So I don't think good villains can call the turn with value hands without being willing to call blank rivers, unless we know that hero gives up often. Otherwise, why are we calling the turn?
I think the overbet shove is another dynamics question which we can't really answer. Unless hero has never been seen to have shoved the river in these spots before, then villain needs to expect that possibility when calling the turn. Meaning calling the turn is more of a mistake if hero isn't bluffing often enough or if villain can't call the river... On the other hand, if hero isn't bluffing often enough when raising the turn, it's too easy for villain to fold.
Dynamics: Yey!
And as you say its a terrible card to bluff on the end... which surely a thinking player would realise and therefore give me more credit when I barrel through. I dunno, I just thought I showed enough strength to fold a pair of 9s lol.
If he is calling the turn with one-pair hands with no draw, it's because he doesn't believe your raising range is mainly super-strong hands. He has to believe you're bluffing or semi-bluffing enough for him to have the best hand a lot of the time. If that's the case, he's going to give you another chance to bluff the river and has to know when calling the turn that this will be his plan on blank rivers.
If your range is solely very strong hands or hands with lots of equity against a pair(draws), the only reason to call the turn would be that there are more draws than strong made hands in your range. Why would he now check-fold the river when those hands have missed, unless he thinks you give up on your bluffs often?
I'm not saying his call on the river was definitely based on brilliant deduction but when he calls the turn I think the only hands you can get him to fold on the river, that you don't beat anyway, are some hands like the one he had. They are the bottom of his value range and there are probably few of them. As it happens, he didn't fold even that.
The range you think you're representing on the turn isn't necessarily the range your opponent gives you. If he is good and knows you well, then he will know you can be drawing here. If he isn't good and doesn't think about your range, then he's probably just calling because he has a hand and "you might be bluffing".
Which hands do you raise this turn with and check blank rivers? If you're bluffing, you can't win without betting and if you have a big hand, you're going to value bet.
So he should expect you to bet the river with almost everything, having raised the turn.