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Satellite, close to bubble, is AQ a fold or a push?
GaryQQQ
Member Posts: 6,804
I rarely play in satellites and found this a tough spot. In any other sort of MTT it's and insta-shove obviously, but what is the correct play here guys?
This is a ME semi, 24 seats are awarded, 25th place gets £26.40. At the start of this hand I'm 21st/28.
The table has been playing tight and most players are already stalling to the max when I pick-up AQo UTG, though note this is a 5-handed table, so it's the same as UTG+1 at a 6-handed table. The HH doesn't show my stack size, but I believe it was 5.4K and that two of my four opponents had me covered.
Just picking up the blinds here will probably be enough to lock-up a seat as there are some very shallow stacks at other tables. Do I push? Or should I fold and nit it up and wait for others to bust?
This is a ME semi, 24 seats are awarded, 25th place gets £26.40. At the start of this hand I'm 21st/28.
The table has been playing tight and most players are already stalling to the max when I pick-up AQo UTG, though note this is a 5-handed table, so it's the same as UTG+1 at a 6-handed table. The HH doesn't show my stack size, but I believe it was 5.4K and that two of my four opponents had me covered.
Just picking up the blinds here will probably be enough to lock-up a seat as there are some very shallow stacks at other tables. Do I push? Or should I fold and nit it up and wait for others to bust?
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNico | Small blind | 600.00 | 600.00 | 11390.00 | |
| BETY1TIME | Big blind | 1200.00 | 1800.00 | 3930.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
|
Comments
We need 4 people to bust to get a seat, we only have 4xBB and are about to pay 1.5xBB in the next 2 hands. We can't rely on 4 people busting very soon cos everyone will be palying tight and unless anyone has a really big stack everyone is gonna be very reluctant to call your shove unless they have a monster.
shove
Do you think 4 people will bust in the next 2 hands? Unlikely imo given how nitty people are round the bubble of a satellite.
Then we go with the timing down plan and blinds go up so we have what? 1xBB? Then we're sat there praying we can win an all-in when we're going to be forced all-in with ATC cos we're 5handed and it's unlikely the bubble ends in the following 3 hands?
Take the shove now imo cos people will be SO tight calling round the bubble of a sat, it's super unlucky if someone has QQ+ or AK, even more so on a 5handed table.
FWIW I adopted IDCU's approach and folded. Next hand I picked up 63o on the BB and was immediately regretting the fold, however I was mighty pleased to get a walk. I folded the SB and had my seat in the bag before the blinds came around again.