Nothing big, but would you bet the river here? Bet and fold to a raise?

LARSON7

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Amber123	Small blind		£0.02	£0.02	£2.91
bad_hand	Big blind		£0.04	£0.06	£1.45
	Your hole cards	K A
fleecer154	Call		£0.04	£0.10	£3.71
LARSON7	Raise		£0.20	£0.30	£6.08
Amber123	Fold
bad_hand	Fold
fleecer154	Call		£0.16	£0.46	£3.55
Flop
		4 A 3
fleecer154	Check
LARSON7	Bet		£0.35	£0.81	£5.73
fleecer154	Call		£0.35	£1.16	£3.20
Turn
		7
fleecer154	Check
LARSON7	Bet		£0.58	£1.74	£5.15
fleecer154	Call		£0.58	£2.32	£2.62
River
		5
fleecer154	Check
LARSON7	Check
fleecer154	Show	A 10
LARSON7	Show	K A
LARSON7	Win	Pair of Aces	£2.14

LARSON7

I know why i checked here, it's such a wet board. If i bet, there is still worse hands that will call.

Is checking the river here a mistake?

Lambert180

Go bigger on the turn, more like 80p and 100% bet the river, what he shows is exactly why you should bet. He's never folding AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8 after calling down twice.

hhyftrftdr

After getting c/c for 2 streets, we gotta ask what he's calling down with. It's a pretty poor river for us, but as he's checked to us again I probably go for a modest value bet. I don't think the average 4nl player will check a rivered flush/straight to us, so whilst a river lead might make the alarm bells ring, a check gives us a green light to bet again.

BorinLoner

Yep, I'd say there's some thin value here.

I'd probably bet-fold about £1. We're looking to make a bet that he can call with just an Ace and it's not a great run-out for weaker Aces. A quid is what I would feel is about right.

It doesn't unbalance our range to value-bet small on the river, either. We would likely want to bet relatively small even with the nuts here because it seems very unlikely that our opponent has a big hand.

Obviously if villain check-raises the river we're finished with the hand.

rancid

go bigger on each street, shove river

if vill has managed to check over a str/flush then wp sir

tendacies at this level are for vill to wet pants on river and shove all in

LARSON7

Thanks Everyone,

I felt after I should have value bet the river, just got scared on the river!

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Nothing big, but would you bet the river here? Bet and fold to a raise?:

Go bigger on the turn, more like 80p and 100% bet the river, what he shows is exactly why you should bet. He's never folding AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8 after calling down twice.
Posted by Lambert180

You know this is rubbish surely?!  Just because he had AT here and might have called a value bet doesn't mean value betting AK here is good. When we bet we're betting against villains whole range. He has loads of FD's in his range, hands like 56, loads of 2 pairs and a few sets. That's a lot of hands that beat us, compared to the 5 Ax hands that don't beat us.

Not going to try and count and compare the combo's here but I suspect villain would need to be calling with A8 up to AQ and maybe some worse hands as well for value betting here to be profitable. If river was an off suit 5 then it's a lot closer and probably a value bet against the general 4nl pool.

But for it to be a value bet as it is you need to have reads that villain is just a massive donk and will call down with anything. (like Q4)

Lambert180

Without being disrespectful...

1) It's 4NL

2) He's limp/called a 5x from UTG

3) He's check/called 2 streets and checked the river.

He's clearly, bad, passive and most likely loose. Generally imo he's gonna be taking this passive line with all his marginal/decent hands like AT and taking off with sets/2prs/flushes and certainly not checking a completed flush to us on the river.

It's probably not always true but Dohhh always said to me ages ago at these kinda stakes with value hands it's just constant bet/fold, bet/fold, bet/fold.

F_Ivanovic

I'm aware that it's 4nl but it's not like a random player at 4nl is completely lolbad and will call down with any 2 cards. Yes, his limp/call is fishy but that doesn't mean he's going to donate post flop with any piece of the board. OP hasn't given any reads though which doesn't help to determine how he might play post-flop and what his range could be.

Loose passive players won't be taking off with flush draws and they can certainly be just calling down with sets/2 pairs. And they're also not donking river when they hit their flush, they're just check/calling. I've seen plenty of passive villains and they will just be c/c all the way if they think their hand is good with no interest in betting/raising for value.

Dohhh is correct in that bet/fold, bet/fold is a great strategy to employ at these stakes but that doesn't mean we should be value betting something which is clearly going to be too thin w/o reads otherwise. If we're putting A8-AQ in his limp/calling range pre and then calling 2 bets on this board then he probably also has A2-A7 a lot. That's already almost enough combos that beat us without including flushes and sets.

F_Ivanovic

Curious if there are any more thoughts on this one? It's really just a matter of counting combos I would think and I can't see how there's more combos that will call that we're ahead of. 

GELDY

Larson you should remove villains name and the result when you post in the clinic

initial thought is to bet for value but as FI says not sure that it is actually +ev

on reflection feel that a bigger turn bet is the better way to build the pot and check back the river

have found these passive types are able to check a river flush

ps non NL4 specific

Unknown

Bet more before river, check back river. Too thin for value imo.

Edit: Work out the number of combos of hands that call that we beat vs number we dont beat with a limp/call range. Its massively weighted in favour we dont beat

BorinLoner

My point would be that, while we've all seen players be passive on all streets with big hands, those players are not the majority of passive pre-flop players. In other words I'd think 22, 33, AA and flopped two-pairs are all more likely to bet or raise before the river. Passive villains CAN just call down with those hands but they TEND to give themselves away at some stage, particularly OOP. On the river does he check flushes or straights? Maybe. Does he check weaker Aces? Yes.

As I say, I think it's pretty thin but while we can think of a wide range of hands that he might have, the majority of which beat us, those hands are not all as likely as one another. We have to weight those hands in order of likelihood. In my opinion the combinations of Ax that don't beat us are marginally more likely than the hands that do, given the action.

Depends on a lot of things, obviously, but if we've just sat down with this villain I'd be value betting.

BorinLoner

Oh and yeah, definitely bet a bit more on the turn.

LARSON7

Bet sizing on the turn, what would you be betting about 3/4's pot?

Just out of interest it's actually quite complicated knowing how much to bet when.

It's not really discussed a great amount-  bet sizing.

Do people follow any rules, or general rules, in relation to bet sizing? Or is it just a combination of opponent/ hand/ board texture?

F_Ivanovic

Possibly could create a new thread on bet sizing but yes, it's a combination of a variety of things.

Obviously if an opponent likes to call a lot/chases draws then you want to increase your bet sizing because it won't matter too them if you bet close to full pot or half pot - they're going to call either way. Our hand shouldn't matter; we want to be betting the same amount with our entire range. That being said if you think an opponent isn't going to notice different bet size amounts then you can adjust bet sizing depending on if you want a call/fold etc..

Board texture as you pointed out is another thing. On wet boards you want to be betting big with your entire betting range because you want to charge an opponent who might be drawing. On dry boards where it is unlikely your opponent can have anything, you want to be betting smaller in general.

The other thing that you didn't mention which is quite important is the SPR (stack to pot ratio) - this is as it says; how big is the pot compared to your stack. If it's really big then you don't need to be betting big because you can get the money in by the river very easily. In pots where the SPR is <10 you can get the money in by the river easily enough if you size your bet sizing accordingly. This is often the case in 3-bet pots where you can go ~ half pot on every street. Obviously if board is super wet you may want to make it a 2 street hand where you bet flop really big and shove turn but in most 3-bet pots you can make it a 3 street hand.

Lambert180

Yeah it's a combination of opponent and board texture really. There aren't really many hard and fast rules but generally we should go smaller on really dry flops cos it's makes it cheaper for us to bluff and they'll have connected with a dry flop less often, and when we do have a hand, we're more likely to get called with a smaller sizing.

Conversely on wet boards, you'll generally be betting bigger on wet boards.

Obviously you'll get to have notes on certain players so if you know X person is a station that will call 1/2pot with any pair but will also call full pot with any pair, then go full pot with your value hands (you won't be bluffing often V stations who just won't fold anyway so no fear of having to balance your bluffs by going full pot).

Generally speaking though, readless I'd recommend most bets to be around the 65-85% of the pot mark. And type in your bets imo don't just use the betting buttons. If the pot is £1 you don't want to limited to like 'right I can only bet 50p, 75p, or £1', you can bet whatever you like and should use different sizings or it just shows you aint thinking about texture/opponent etc.

liamboi11

hey mate

pre flop and flop is spot on

turn defo bet bigger

river don`t think it`s a clear b/f spot, river is horrible card after opponent has c/c 2 streets like ivanovic said depends on what reads/history you have on opponent.

so don`t mind check behind but if we go for a thin value I like bet/fold around £1-1.20ish

offshoot

Check back river, prob bet all non spade rivers

DrSharp

Turn should be bigger for value out of drawing hands. 85p+. Just 3/4 it or pot it. I probably pot bet flop to be honest at NL4.

River is tough but I don't think its too bad either way. Bet half pot and fold to a raise is fine as is the check behind.