Variance?

ClintonH83

Being a mere poker mortal i'm wondering if Variance, especially in cash, will always make me be a losing playing?

Lambert180

Variance has zero impact on whether you're a winning player or not. It just has an impact on short term results.

ClintonH83

My short team result tho are losing all my money lol

Lambert180

That's why you need good bankroll management.

You could give Phil Ivey 10 BIs to play cash and he might go busto. That's poker.

Give a good winning player 50BIs though and it's probably not gonna happen.

Chances are if you stick to low stakes on here and you go through 30 BIs, it's probably not variance that's to blame.

ClintonH83

In Response to Re: Variance?:

That's why you need good bankroll management. You could give Phil Ivey 10 BIs to play cash and he might go busto. That's poker. Give a good winning player 50BIs though and it's probably not gonna happen. Chances are if you stick to low stakes on here and you go through 30 BIs, it's probably not variance that's to blame.
Posted by Lambert180

If your saying i need 30/50 BIs its my bankroll management

peter27

In Response to Re: Variance?:

That's why you need good bankroll management. You could give Phil Ivey 10 BIs to play cash and he might go busto. That's poker. Give a good winning player 50BIs though and it's probably not gonna happen. Chances are if you stick to low stakes on here and you go through 30 BIs, it's probably not variance that's to blame.
Posted by Lambert180

Sorry, BIs is?

spurs_13

In Response to Re: Variance?:

In Response to Re: Variance? : Sorry, BIs is?
Posted by peter27

BI's = Buy Ins

If you are playing 2p/4p a buy in (BI) will = £4 so in lamberts example 50BI's would = a £200 BR (Bankroll) to play that limit and survive the variance swings without going bust.

1 of the 1st things that I learnt from the community as a new player here was effective BRM (bankroll management) and as a result I haven't deposited for 14 months

That's not to say I am a great player, got a bit lucky early on and have stuck to rigid BRM while I continue to try and improve my game

GL at the tables

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Variance?:

In Response to Re: Variance? : If your saying i need 30/50 BIs its my bankroll management
Posted by ClintonH83

If you keep losing it's definitely not your bankroll management.

They're 2 separate issues.

Variance probably the least of your problems. And it's not specific to you. Everyone who plays has to deal with it everytime they play at whatever level.

Not sure if it's even a 'problem' ?

You could be experiencing positive variance yet still losing.

Sort out your game & brm (2nd 1 is easy).

peter27

In Response to Re: Variance?:

In Response to Re: Variance? : BI's = Buy Ins If you are playing 2p/4p a buy in (BI) will = £4 so in lamberts example 50BI's would = a £200 BR (Bankroll) to play that limit and survive the variance swings without going bust. 1 of the 1st things that I learnt from the community as a new player here was effective BRM (bankroll management) and as a result I haven't deposited for 14 months That's not to say I am a great player, got a bit lucky early on and have stuck to rigid BRM while I continue to try and improve my game GL at the tables
Posted by spurs_13

Ahh thanks! I should have worked that one out haha.

I've heard a lot about BRM, but not really looked into it as I've never had a problem really. However I would be interested to know how your BRM works? If you want to share that is :-)

spurs_13

In Response to Re: Variance?:

In Response to Re: Variance? : Ahh thanks! I should have worked that one out haha. I've heard a lot about BRM, but not really looked into it as I've never had a problem really. However I would be interested to know how your BRM works? If you want to share that is :-)
Posted by peter27

There is a fantastic thread in Poker Chat by GaryQQQ called "1,000 Poker Points ----- /> £1,000 Can it be done?"

Gary is a reg on here and also a legend with advice on strict BRM, I would advocate reading the diary that charts his progress. He started it at the beginning of this year and is now close to £700

peter27

In Response to Re: Variance?:

In Response to Re: Variance? : There is a fantastic thread in Poker Chat by GaryQQQ called "1,000 Poker Points ----- /> £1,000 Can it be done?" Gary is a reg on here and also a legend with advice on strict BRM, I would advocate reading the diary that charts his progress. He started it at the beginning of this year and is now close to £700
Posted by spurs_13

Will check it out! :-)

Talon

 Always sceptical posting on a thread about variance because most people do not look at variance the right way. They only see it as a word to explain periods of bad luck. Only Dohhhhh on this thread has even mentioned the other side of variance.

 We all have periods of time when our big hands get beat and we cant hit a draw to save our lives. But also we all have the times when we hit sets more frequently than normal or all our draws get there. These are both variance. This is the luck aspect of the game that we can not avoid.

 This is when the skill comes into play. The skill comes when we win the most possible when it has gone our way and lose the minimum when things go wrong. This is how we make money at the tables.

 We should never focus on the times when the poker gods are against us and we should not mistake the times when they are on our side as being a sign of our brilliance. These times happen and we should not even waste time thinking about them. Time is better spent looking at appropriate hands and saying how could i have won more or how could i have lost less.

ClintonH83

Im never really playing more than 25 BIs and most of the time its below 20 so maybe i should concentrate on my bank roll management...

To be totally honest i dont think im good enough to fold my big hands... and there the ones i lose most of my money on! 

It hards tho when you have AA the flop comes 10 2 5 and you bet the whole way and someone has 10 2 haha 

Just think with my big hands vs hand Variance and my skill level i'll always be a break even / losing cash player

calcalfold

In Response to Re: Variance?:

In Response to Re: Variance? : BI's = Buy Ins If you are playing 2p/4p a buy in (BI) will = £4 so in lamberts example 50BI's would = a £200 BR (Bankroll) to play that limit and survive the variance swings without going bust. 1 of the 1st things that I learnt from the community as a new player here was effective BRM (bankroll management) and as a result I haven't deposited for 14 months That's not to say I am a great player, got a bit lucky early on and have stuck to rigid BRM while I continue to try and improve my game GL at the tables
Posted by spurs_13

I can see your point, but a lot of people would misinterpret this information.

You do not need to deposit £200 to play 2p/4p.

Starting with £40 is plenty

THEROCK573

In Response to Re: Variance?:

 Always sceptical posting on a thread about variance because most people do not look at variance the right way. They only see it as a word to explain periods of bad luck. Only Dohhhhh on this thread has even mentioned the other side of variance.  We all have periods of time when our big hands get beat and we cant hit a draw to save our lives. But also we all have the times when we hit sets more frequently than normal or all our draws get there. These are both variance. This is the luck aspect of the game that we can not avoid.  This is when the skill comes into play. The skill comes when we win the most possible when it has gone our way and lose the minimum when things go wrong. This is how we make money at the tables.  We should never focus on the times when the poker gods are against us and we should not mistake the times when they are on our side as being a sign of our brilliance. These times happen and we should not even waste time thinking about them. Time is better spent looking at appropriate hands and saying how could i have won more or how could i have lost less.
Posted by Talon

great post

calcalfold

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/other/variance/

peter27

In Response to Re: Variance?:

In Response to Re: Variance? : There is a fantastic thread in Poker Chat by GaryQQQ called "1,000 Poker Points ----- /> £1,000 Can it be done?" Gary is a reg on here and also a legend with advice on strict BRM, I would advocate reading the diary that charts his progress. He started it at the beginning of this year and is now close to £700
Posted by spurs_13

Thanks for this tip, it's a great thread - learnt a lot and it's facinating to read, kind of inspirational to be honest!

peter27

Okay guys, I have a question (which might be a little stupid - I am new to trying to develop my poker play).

How do you know if you're doing well because of variance or if you're doing well because you're good?

I just won my first MTT on SkyPoker - and while I am using reasoning and logic in every hand I play - I'm not entirely sure if I can call myself a good player yet or if I'm just doing well due to variance. I did get lucky during my MTT win, but surely anyone who wins an MTT will need to get lucky at some point?

One tournament win on its own may suggest variance, but I did also place 20th in a "mini" event a few days ago too - not sure if that changes things haha?

LnarinOO

In Response to Re: Variance?:

Okay guys, I have a question (which might be a little stupid - I am new to trying to develop my poker play). How do you know if you're doing well because of variance or if you're doing well because you're good? I just won my first MTT on SkyPoker - and while I am using reasoning and logic in every hand I play - I'm not entirely sure if I can call myself a good player yet or if I'm just doing well due to variance. I did get lucky during my MTT win, but surely anyone who wins an MTT will need to get lucky at some point? One tournament win on its own may suggest variance, but I did also place 20th in a "mini" event a few days ago too - not sure if that changes things haha?
Posted by peter27

time is the key... as apposed to other aspects od poker MMT's are very high in variance.. some of the best players in the world can many games without a single cash- if this is your choosen or prefered part of the game then all you can reallly do is try to learn and develop an understanding of the different stages of the tourney - early (deep), mid-stages and then your fold/shove/steel options at the later, shallow stack, business end of the game.

track all your bustout hands to see whether it was the right time or if you could have done anything different.. most of the time it'll come down to a flip or a cooler where no patries could have done anythin different but as long as your making the right plays at the right time then thats all  you want to be doing...GLGL

Simmy4k

lol at phil ivey going broke with 10BIs

if you are the best player you should be able to win every hand on the table practically

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Variance?:

lol at phil ivey going broke with 10BIs if you are the best player you should be able to win every hand on the table practically
Posted by Simmy4k

Yeah obviously, cos Phil Ivey could never get AA v KK pre and the villian bink their king?

Or just get coolered KK v AA pre

Or get it in on the flop with top set V a FD and they get there?

Or get middle set into top set

That's why BRM is important, cos being the best isn't enough if you can't afford to take the variance.