Don't often post in the clinic, but wondered what the general consensus was on this hand.
This is the £2k Guaranteed Cash Game and we are in the last three quarter of the tournament, I don't have any reads on this guy as I had just joined the table and nothing in his notes. My question is would you flat the raise or 3 bet shove?
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceSUPERSNEDDSmall blind 50.0050.0024247.50smudge2511Big blind 100.00150.0043542.50 Your hole cards66 memfnoFold mould03Raise 240.00390.0013800.00paul10Fold SUPERSNEDDCall 190.00580.0024057.50smudge2511Call 140.00720.0043402.50Flop 252 SUPERSNEDDBet 360.001080.0023697.50smudge2511Fold mould03Call 360.001440.0013440.00Turn 6 SUPERSNEDDBet 720.002160.0022977.50mould03Call 720.002880.0012720.00River K SUPERSNEDDBet 2880.005760.0020097.50mould03Raise 7000.0012760.005720.00SUPERSNEDDAll-in 20097.5032857.500.00mould03All-in 5720.0038577.500.00SUPERSNEDDUnmatched bet 10257.5028320.0010257.50
Comments
u pot river and vill is pretty excited about it
suppose vill can have 2x, 55,AA
only KK,22 so get em in
then cry
OK I've seen the results now but I'm posting the same advice I would have before seeing the results.
Personally I think it's quite close but think shoving is fine and think we'd need reads on villain to do otherwise. That being said villains line does look very strong. When people POT river it's very indicitive of a polarised range; either NUT hands or bluffs. So therefore when villain raises river to a substantial sizing it follows that he must have an equally nut hand to do so. I know that if I was villain in this hand my raising range OTR would be 22, KK and 55 (there's probably more than enough 2x or 34 into your range to raise 55 for value) but any 2x or 34 that I had I'm just flatting. When shoved on I'm obviously not thrilled calling off with 55 but with pot odds I don't think I could fold.
Since there's 3 combos of 55 and 4 combos of KK and 22 it would seem that shoving in this instance was slightly dubious and in a standard tournament where tournament life was important I think I'm more inclined to just flat. But in this particular tournament where it's pretty much a cash game (minus no reload) we should just be making the most ev decision and against an unknown who could be raising 2x or 34 OTR then we have to shove. (I don't however think many players at all are playing a hand like AA or AK this way)
The only issue I have with the donk is....better never folds
if vill has better your inflating pot for villian
what if vill raises with worse.....