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In the words of Foo Fighters....this is a call?
hhyftrftdr
Member Posts: 8,036
gibbzySmall blind 300.00300.008215.00hhyftrftdrBig blind 600.00900.008625.00 Your hole cards99 jonnyrkdFold skully644All-in 3180.004080.000.00gibbzyAll-in 8215.0012295.000.00
£12 Roller direct. £55 for 2nd. Discuss.
£12 Roller direct. £55 for 2nd. Discuss.
Comments
Whether you think he knows that, I dunno. Essentially we're pretty unlikely to be ahead against his range anyway, and we're looking to flip against him. I think we should be folding.
It probably depends a lot on how well we think the other guys understand ICM whether we ever want to be calling off our stack at this stage with anything short of AA/KK.
If so it would be nice to know Jonny's stack.
I really dunno what to do, think it must be close either way.
That's why I asked if there was 4 left or maybe 8 left on 2 4handed tables or somethin.
Gut feel was fold and wait for better spot.
...but then again, initial shover could have any 2 cards so likely you are ahead
I would put SB on Ax or small pair - thinks they are good v shorty but doesn't really want a call from BB.
A call starts to look attractive especially when the win gets us a guarantee of £55.
However 2 overcards and TT,JJ,QQ have to be possible holdings and given stack sizes SB might just hit all in with AK AA KK anyhow.
Agree with Lambert, would be good to factor the stack of Jonny and whether we would be dominating HU.
My decision would have to based on how the table and individuals had been playing the last few rounds to help with likely ranges of the 2 villains and also help understand the likelihood of taking chips ourselves with open shoves without risking our tourney.
Granted if we assume shorty has a hand and SB a much bigger one than shorty it is an easy fold.
If we are making a mathematical decision based on ICM then we need to know Jonnys stack size to make the calculation. Plus what evidence do we have of SBs capacity for decision making in this spot? Can't really just say if SB is playing ICM then he must be huge to call. I would be looking for other evidence of SBs shoving range based on observation or notes.
Not saying I disagree with the decision, my gut feel would be fold and the arguments tempting me to the call button probably wouldn't come quick enough or strong enough to make me change my mind before a timeout.
Think I call.
As we're readless, I'll assume a good/(optimal?) range for gibbzy, something I'd be shoving myself in this spot.
So K8s+ KTo+ all Ax's suited or otherwise, all PP's.
Yep, just talked myself into it being a very easy call.
60% v { 33+, A2s+, K8s+, QJs, A2o+, KTo+, QJo }
Take out some weaker stuff if gibbzy is re-shoving too tight....
56% v { 33+,A7s+,K9s+,QJs,A7o+,KJo+,QJo }
Reallyyyyy tight range (coz it is sky) .........
53% v { 66+, A8s+, KJs+, QJs, A8o+, KQo }
Basically at any stage of a tournament, our chips are more valuable than the chips in the middle. As we approach the bubble that difference increases. This is particularly dramatic in satellites with multiple seats but it's true of all tournament play. That's the reason why we sometimes should be folding AA to a shove on the bubble, because our chips may be ten or more times as valuable as the chips in the middle.
That means that at this stage, in order to risk around 40% of his stack and potentially all of it if someone behind has a hand, gibbzy should need a reasonably big hand. The value of the chips in his stack is much greater than the value of the chips in the middle. He'd also want to maintain his fold equity rather than risk getting in that 40% of his stack with some junky Ace or King.
Whether gibbzy knows that, I dunno.
Since there's only one seat here with half as much for second and we're not on the pure bubble, the bubble factor isn't going to be massively high, but even if it's only 1.5, then we need equity of 60% to make the call here. I expect it's actually significantly higher against a player who can effectively stack us.
By the way, I've no idea how to actually work out the bubble factor from the ICM without getting it from a book. I don't think I can be bothered to do that.
Bottom line is we only have pot odds of 40% for the main+side pots here and, while it may be a +cEV call against a loose range, I don't think a) we should be giving gibbzy a loose range if he knows what he's doing or b) a +cEV call is going to be a +EV call in ICM terms.
DOHHHHHHH I'd have to say that I don't think what you're calling an optimal range for gibbzy's shove is anywhere close. Even if it is, our optimal calling range needs to be much, much tighter.
I have to admit that bubble factor isn't something I've ever gone too deeply into. But the basic fact is that chips in our stack are always more valuable than chips in the middle in tournaments and that is exaggerated as we approach the bubble. Even if we have better than 40% equity for both the pots here, I don't think it's a call.
As I think it's an easy call.
I mean It looks like I couldn't be more wrong if I tried!
Call, 60% of the time we're gna be HU w/ 2-1 chiplead for a seat, & gtd £55.
How can you turn that down
I will go away and have another read of the relevant chapters of this book, as I may have got it wrong. The fact that being first in is better than being the caller is obvious. The idea that our chips are more valuable than the ones in the middle is a little less so. Putting a numerical value on that difference is a very tricky thing to get your head around and I may be way off...
Ultimately, if we think gibbzy is overshoving too wide we may have significantly more than 40% equity. I just don't see too many people isolating here with anywhere close to A2 or K8 and I don't think that's a good idea.
The one thing I am sure of is that we definitely need considerably more than 40% equity against gibbzy to call. I just don't know how much more.
I'll do some swotting up and see if I've got the right idea of things.
Having said that, I still think the 9s is a fairly easy fold.
Geldy, I'd argue that this is a great opportunity for a re-shover to jam his full range that he feels is sufficient to get it in v the shorty to exploit our tight calling range behind.
He is against a 5xbb button shover, who has to be realllyyyyyy wide & there is a lot of dead money in already with the size of the blinds.
If he knows we have to fold hands as strong as 9s, then why can't he be vvvv wide himself here, knowing he's getting called behind almost never?
What would your range be here in gibbzys spot?
I think K8s+ KTo+ all Ax's suited or otherwise, all PP's is very reasonable given how infrequently he's going to be getting looked up behind.