Why isn't this close to a flip

DoyleBrun

Hello played this hand yesterday I had AsKs he had QsQh I raised he called he made big bet on the flop 5sQdJs because I thought it was close to a flip I went AI he called and I didn't hit. When I put it in an odds calculator it said I had 33% equity but surely I have 12 outs which should be close to 48%. Any thougts gratefully accepted, cheers Doylebrun.

LARSON7

You have 8 spades, 3 10s, 11outs, he has q of spades. 33% would be right.

DoyleBrun

In Response to Re: Why isn't this close to a flip:

You have 8 spades, 3 10s, 11outs, he has q of spades. 33% would be right.
Posted by LARSON7

Thanks Larson but even with 11 outs * 4 is closer to 44%?

hhyftrftdr

Yeah its about 44% if my maths are correct.

weedgi

33 sounds about right your up against a set  ,u can make your flush/str8 ect and still lose 

if you were just aginst top pair then it would be  alot nearer a coin flip

TeddyBloat

he'll hit his full house nearky as often as you spike a flush. His redraws are what makes this a 33% shot. He also steals one of your river outs when a blank turn hits. Eg if the 8c comes then the 8s is no longer an out

Cheers, 

TEDDY

hhyftrftdr

Think it's about 44%. When the chips go in on the flop, 8 spades plus three 10s, so 11 outs twice is 44% give or take. 

Unless I'm completely missing something, which could be the case.

TeddyBloat

That assumes that none spade / Ten turns dont alter equity. A queen, jack or 5 leaves him dead, any blank turn also steals a river out. 

He can hit his flush on the river yet be dead by then..

Cheers,

TEDDY

TeddyBloat

Put another way we not only have to hit a flush or straight, but we also heve to dodge  7 turn cards and 10 river cards. That extra requirement means the 2 + 4 rule is not going to be accurate,

Cheers, 

TEDDY

NColley

Ya its 33% because he hits a FH sometimes.

You'd be just over 50% vs an overpair if say the flop instead of a Q held a lower value card (thats not a spade) instead.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Why isn't this close to a flip:

do u take into the fact  of the players that have folded might have a spade
Posted by IDONKCALLU

obviously not cause they might also have folded no spades which would give us more chance of hitting one!

DoyleBrun

Thank you all for your input I can see now that a lot of cards can go against me so next time I wont be going AI so quickly.

Cheers Doylebrun.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Why isn't this close to a flip:

Thank you all for your input I can see now that a lot of cards can go against me so next time I wont be going AI so quickly. Cheers Doylebrun.
Posted by DoyleBrun

 

Never a bad spot to get your money/chips in, drawing to 2 nuts. Could be up against much worse than a set next time and have even greater equity.

Better to go all in with such a draw than call all in though.

Edit...which is exactly what you did, my bad!

TeddyBloat

Yeah if we  are ever going all in with made hands then we have to include some none made hands in our shoving range. Here  our equity is usually so high I'd prolly count it as  a made hand any way lol. Whatever you're  never making a bad play by pushing.

Cheers, 

TEDDY