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Call or fold the river?
LARSON7
Member Posts: 4,494
This hand here, i know the 3 bet pre is way to small, it was a misclick.
On the river call or fold? It does look like a pretty strong bet, everything or nothing.
Never played against opponent till tonight, he is a good MTT player.
I tanked till the bar was almost at 0, and felt it looked bluffy, just looking for others thoughts on this
| LARSON7 | Small blind | 40.00 | 40.00 | 4959.00 | |
| Ikelly | Big blind | 80.00 | 120.00 | 4636.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| 3barrels | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | 160.00 | 280.00 | 2830.00 | |
| winking | Fold | ||||
| bbMike | Fold | ||||
| LARSON7 | Raise | 360.00 | 640.00 | 4599.00 | |
| Ikelly | Fold | ||||
| x | Call | 240.00 | 880.00 | 2590.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| LARSON7 | Bet | 440.00 | 1320.00 | 4159.00 | |
| x | Call | 440.00 | 1760.00 | 2150.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| LARSON7 | Check | ||||
| x | Check | ||||
| River | |||||
| |||||
| LARSON7 | Check | ||||
| x | Bet | 1760 | |||
Comments
Given the betting especially the lack of flop reraise, check behind on turn plus the pot size river bet leaving only 390 behind have to agree villain is either well ahead and knows it or bluffing.
Preflop betting would suggest Ax or any mid to high pair.
Given you're covering villain, will have a playable stack if villain has it, and the amount of chips in the middle, I'm probably calling that one.
Was the toughest spot i had in all of the 3dtd games tonight. Love the opponent's bet. As the clock was going down - and 15 seconds isnt much thinking time - i felt it was a bluff.
On the flop what are we expecting op to be calling? J10, KJ type hands - almost never. You've 3 bet pre... you could easily have AK and a call with anything less than an ace or a 5 would be pure spew. Suppose he could have a 23type hand but even that got there on the river. IMO if he is calling flop he 9/10 times has an Ace... a 5 or a possibly a PP (less likely). Check on the turn by villain could easily be checking A10 or even A5 hoping for you to have a go at bluffing the river as he is so short he only needs one bet to get it in.
Pot bet on the river is slightly polarising but I cant see him doing it with any hand that has showdown value (i.e. a PP that hasnt completed the FH or a 10) and I cant see him popping up with a KJ type hand too often to make this a profitable call.
Yeah I fold.
EDIT - I mean there isn't even a draw we can convince ourselves villain missed. Fold
Perhaps they have notes on you "calls all-ins if thinks its a bluff but believes pot size bets!"
You have to think what does villain think our hero has?
I expect our hero cb's a lot.
Therefore quite reasonable to call with a view to taking it down on a later street.
Hero checks turn and river which gives that opportunity to villain and as villain has shown strength there would be no reason for hero to slowdown to induce a bluff.
Must've been the 3 softest tournaments ever played on the site if this was the most difficult spot!
Foldingggggg.
IMO this is a big big big leak.
Im not putting in another chip when he calls an A high flop paired board with no draw. This is never ever ever ever ever going to be profitable long term.... and usually that means short-term too.
Let him have it if he wants to bluff off worse but i dont see it.
Yeah it is, he's never bluffing leaving himself 300/400 behind.
I had just lost a bad hand in the other tournie, pretty sure it affected this decision.
Was a pretty terrible call! Wonder what opponent put me on to call such a big river bet, must have had me on a big ace.
Opponent had Ace 10.
I guessed you were behind in reality hence your original post, it read like it was - "Is the bad call justified" rather than a "look at my fantastic read and call".
Perhaps my helpful nature kicked in with some justification for you.
Surprised it was AT though. TT, 65, 54, A5, 44 more in keeping with the betting, way ahead on flop or turn or made big on river.
If villain thinks you have a big ace why would you slow down and give villain a free card when the T appears giving a flush draw and inside straight draws?
Villain more likely to think you are c betting flop?
Still believe that could be a bluff - from a good player capable of making a move and your 3bet pf sizing does give villain a wide range to call with position.
However on balance, early to mid stages - better to give up on called cbet and an overcard.
Like the sneeaky check on the turn by opponent, the seed was sown.
Then on the river to me it doesnt look like a value bet (what can i call a pot size bet with i checked the turn!!)
So levelled myself into it being a bluff, though it never made sense why he'd bluff away most of his chips.
Total misstep by me.