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Line check on my bluff
F_Ivanovic
Member Posts: 2,412
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| x | Small blind | £0.20 | £0.20 | £39.67 | |
| F_Ivanovic | Big blind | £0.40 | £0.60 | £103.86 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| jd44 | Raise | £1.20 | £1.80 | £34.66 | |
| NooGooood | Fold | ||||
| hurst05 | Call | £1.20 | £3.00 | £51.03 | |
| x | Call | £1.00 | £4.00 | £38.67 | |
| F_Ivanovic | Call | £0.80 | £4.80 | £103.06 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| x | Bet | £2.40 | £7.20 | £36.27 | |
| F_Ivanovic | Call | £2.40 | £9.60 | £100.66 | |
| jd44 | Fold | ||||
| hurst05 | Fold | ||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| x | Bet | £4.80 | £14.40 | £31.47 | |
| F_Ivanovic | Raise | £13.40 | £27.80 | £87.26 | |
| x | Call | £8.60 | £36.40 | £22.87 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| x | Check | ||||
| F_Ivanovic | Bet | £27.30 | £63.70 | £59.96 | |
Only thing I'm worried about is this: earlier in the session he calls 3bet w A9, donks a A56 flop 3 way, calls my raise. Then he calls my shove on a K turn which brings flush (he had no FD) and he has A9 (no fd) - that being said I thought the fact I showed up with AA here might make him believe I'm more likely to have it here?
Comments
line is good though
Thread question: "How do you like my bluff?"
Second paragraph: "Oh btw, the villain is a massive calling station."
How do we like the bluff when the thread is framed that way, F_Ivanovic?
We think the villain's likely range for donking the flop is Ax and flush draws and neither of those are folding the turn. That leaves me not liking the raise on the turn. If he's not folding the turn, he's not folding a blank river so I don't like betting the river, especially when it's just for 2/3 of the pot.
Maybe we can raise the turn a little smaller if we intend to barrel the river. However, once they call the turn I don't think they should be folding the blank river. I think they're committed to calling us down when the draws miss, if they are a decent player, because everything they were beating on the turn they're still beating on the river. (Maybe we can level players we have more history with?)
So I like this slightly bigger turn raise but think we need to give up on the river.
Agree that turn raise could possibly be smaller. I think though that if I'm raising turn I have to be shoving river, otherwise the turn raise is just spew. A lot of players will call turn "to keep them honest" but then fold facing more pressure. Plus he could have a lot of pair + flush draws that might call the turn raise because they think they have outs if behind but then fold to the river bet.
What kind of range would you put me on when I take this line btw? I think this is one of the only bluffs in my range here and everything else is a value hand; either a set/flush. (more likely a flush as don't have many sets in my range either)
That's the reason I'd say that a decent player (a bit of a subjective term, I suppose) shouldn't be calling the turn and folding the river. You were either bluffing the turn or you had a flush. The same is true on the river. It just depends on your image; how much credit they can give you for taking this line with a bluff, and how often do we think they're going to be a bit meek about things facing another barrel?
Certainly there are people who will call the turn and fold river. I don't think they should, mind you. Do you have reason to believe this player is one of those? It is only 2/3 pot, after all.
I guess you're right though; they could be calling turn with an AxXh hand and be willing to fold river. How big a part of their range is that on the turn? It has to be a pretty big heart, you'd think.
below clearly suggest you shouldn't be bluffing a lot verus this villian
"Only thing I'm worried about is this: earlier in the session he calls 3bet w A9, donks a A56 flop 3 way, calls my raise. Then he calls my shove on a K turn which brings flush (he had no FD) and he has A9 (no fd) - that being said I thought the fact I showed up with AA here might make him believe I'm more likely to have it here?"
So vill ain't folding an ace, may fold pr with heart or something like KhJx
but whole line is same as this "calls 3bet w A9, donks a A56 flop 3 way" so it's pretty obvious they have an Ace
This would be true if whenever you 2 barreled you always followed up with a 3 barrel. However, a lot of time you might fire 2 barrels and realise it's probably best to shut down. Either because you now can't see a value bet being called by worse or because the board ran out in such a way that you're sure opponent will call a 3rd barrel too often. A lot of players on sky tend to have a high 2 barrel but low 3 barrel - meaning you can exploit this by folding to their 3 barrels but calling their 2 barrels.
I do lack enough reads here though to know too much about my opponent so I may very well be making a bad play here. I was playing well though at the time and with a clean image where the only time I got my stack in was with a set of aces I thought I could get away with a nicely timed bluff. Villain DID fold though after a small tank. I think in future though I probably need slightly more reads before making this play against a relative unknown!
I'd say you're right that there are plenty of times people fire a second barrel and give up on the river and some people will therefore fold when you do barrel the river... I think you're starting to level yourself there, though, without more specific history. If I'm the villain, I'm not calling turn and folding the river unless I know you're giving up your bluffs a high proportion of the time. Otherwise I'm expecting the river bet to come more often than not.
You put him in a really tough spot with your raise on the turn. When he calls that, it's not as tough a spot you can put him in on the river. You already leveraged your stack against him with your turn raise, I think, and he still called. That's what makes a smaller turn raise better; we still leverage our stack on the turn but can do so more cheaply. If we think the villain is one of those "call here and see what you do" types, we leave ourselves a bigger SPR to bet on the river, too.
What do I know, though? It got through so maybe I'm wrong about these things. Perhaps more people call to reassess your play on the river than I think, rather than calling with a clear idea about what they're going to do... or maybe he just missed his Kh draw.
You make some good points ,but like I said I think the majority of my range is flushes with very few bluffs. Maybe he's calling turn with sets/2 pairs because he hopes to boat up on the river? These hands along with Axh hands that call turn to see if they hit their flush OTR make up a lot of hands that he might call turn but fold river.
If you had a set on the turn and thought I had a flush, you'd surely want to call because of the odds but then c/fold on the river? Maybe he still calls sets OTR, I don't really know. Be interesting to see what villain actually folded, but alas will probably never know!
The river bet is definitely defensible (defendable?) but I think it's more likely to be -EV than +EV in the long run without clear reads. Again, that depends on your feel of how often people call turn to see what you do on the river.
Saying all that Ivan vill has been shown AA by you, so unless villian is a complete moron he should be folding now - so mayb the bluff isn't too bad providing you think he thinks you don't bluff a lot