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thoughts please
craigcu12
Member Posts: 3,962
the major problem with me and MTT's at the minute is when it get to the stage where stacks are short and villians limp into the pot. it's if i then loose it i am left asking myself should i have jammed preflop rather than check or should i have folded preflop rather than jam and should i have jammed preflop rather than fold.
when i watched sky TV on Thursday even the main event had lots of short stack limpers so these decision i think will get more and more common.
when it's hands such as AA-77 and AK-A10 the decision is easy and i can take it.
but if i have hands such as KQ KJ QJ A5s-A9s and low pairs will a shove preflop be the right thing to do or should i just play them cautiously.
when i watched sky TV on Thursday even the main event had lots of short stack limpers so these decision i think will get more and more common.
when it's hands such as AA-77 and AK-A10 the decision is easy and i can take it.
but if i have hands such as KQ KJ QJ A5s-A9s and low pairs will a shove preflop be the right thing to do or should i just play them cautiously.
| curbcrawle | Small blind | 500.00 | 500.00 | 8871.25 | |
| james84 | Big blind | 1000.00 | 1500.00 | 7370.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| x | Call | 1000.00 | 2500.00 | 20546.25 | |
| CJSDAD | Fold | ||||
| craigcu12 | All-in | 6600.00 | 9100.00 | 0.00 | |
| curbcrawle | Fold | ||||
| james84 | Fold | ||||
| x | Call | 5600.00 | 14700.00 | 14946.25 | |
| x | Show |
| |||
| craigcu12 | Show |
| |||
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| River | |||||
| |||||
| x | Win | Three Kings | 14700.00 | 29646.25 | |
| x | Small blind | 75.00 | 75.00 | 3400.00 | |
| craigcu12 | Big blind | 150.00 | 225.00 | 2200.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| z | Call | 150.00 | 375.00 | 1650.00 | |
| tazt | Fold | ||||
| y | Call | 150.00 | 525.00 | 775.00 | |
| bigdaves23 | Fold | ||||
| x | Call | 75.00 | 600.00 | 3325.00 | |
| craigcu12 | Check | ||||
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| x | Check | ||||
| craigcu12 | Bet | 150.00 | 750.00 | 2050.00 | |
| z | Fold | ||||
| y | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | 600.00 | 1350.00 | 2725.00 | |
| craigcu12 | All-in | 2050.00 | 3400.00 | 0.00 | |
| x | Call | 1600.00 | 5000.00 | 1125.00 | |
| x | Show |
| |||
| craigcu12 | Show |
| |||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| River | |||||
| |||||
| x | Win | Three 2s | 5000.00 | 6125.00 | |
Comments
Hand 2, this is a perfect squeeze opportunity. The original limper will more than likely fold (depends what reads you have on him as to what he limps utg with) and if player Y had anything remotely decent he would of been shoving his 6bb stack. Now we may get a call from him, but we will virtually always be ahead of his range.
I disagree with double here I think you are getting a lot of folds from the limper in hand 1 - he has to call 25% of his stack with k3 here. The fact he limped k3 shows he doesn't have a clue to begin with so qj suited is probably never in that bad a shape against him anyway. Plus with only 6bb's left we need to double up so probably worth the punt. What would he be limping that would see us that far behind really?! surely he raises AQ, KQ, AJ, KJ.
I could be miles out as I suck at mtt's but i'm playing it the same apart from perhaps folding hand 2 lol
How does this limping range sound for him based that we have no reads at all on the utg.
22-66
A2s-A8s
78s-QJs
KTs,KJs
KJo
This gives us 48.8% vs 51.1%
In the first hand when we shove we know we're going to be called. We have to ask ourselves what the limper's range therefore is. We're effectively calling all-in with pot-odds of 45%.
If we assume that the villain is unlikely to limp his premium hands or AQ, AJ, KQ hands, then were never likely to be dominated and only behind against his Ax and Kx hands as a 40% dog. If he's got lots of underpairs, suited connectors and weaker Qx and Jx hands we should get it in because we're likely to be a favourite against his range.
If he only limps pairs and Ax or Kx hands, then we have a problem. Our pot odds are still 45% but we have to consider whether we have fold equity in future situations. If we can fold here and shove the next unopened pot with ATC and believe we have decent fold equity, then that's what we should do. There may also be reason to occasionally suspect that the limper is holding a monster, if this is a bounty hunter tournament or if we've seen them limp monsters before.
Hand 2: I think we should shove pre-flop. We should probably assume that the limpers aren't holding premium hands so the only hands that dominate us are perhaps AJ, AT, A9, 88, 99, TT. That's not a lot of hands and plenty of players will fold those 88, 99, AT and A9 hands to our shove, so we do have fold equity against some better hands.
So when we shove we shouldn't expect to be called very often at all and, when we are, we shouldn't expect to be in rough shape. The huge majority of the time we add more than 25% to our stack without a showdown.
Hand 2 should definitely be a pre-flop shove, in my opinion.
There is already 600 in the pot, if we squeeze here and the shorty calls our shove there will be 1375 + our 775. We need to be good here 36% of the time.
Here is a limping range I have assigned what do you think, is this a fair limping range for a clueless person?
77-22,A9s,A7s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,KQo
This makes us 54.2% vs 45.7%
If he folds we collect 600 chips, just over 25% of our stack gained.
The range that I put for the utg limper is for hand 1. The range I put for the 7bb shorty is for hand 2. When we squeeze in hand 2, the utg limper is hardly ever going to call us unless he has limped a monster. Obviously we have to use our reads for this. Please specify which hand you're referring too.
hand 2 came from a timed tournament and i think the limping was a sign that they more worried of loosing chips than gaining more so what I am thinking is the villain UTG was either hiding a premium hand or held a weak pair and didn't want to raise incase he was jammed by the 7BB shorty, the shorty probably decided to just limp in then if he hit he would jam rather than ship it preflop because rather leave the MTT with nothing atleast he would still have something.
I've got to admit if it were from a BH that is where the choice would be really hard because micro stakes get loads of head prize chasers so if i jammed with A8 it would be a real coin flip but in a sense i think that BH villians are more likely to limp with premiums.
OP....
Hand 1 = shove
Hand 2 = shove
wp
You said about people chasing bounties so more of a coinflip. Well people calling light (like in BHs) makes it a much better spot to shove A8s. We're practically never gonna be better than a coin flip ish scenario, that's just the nature of A8, we aint gonna get called by A2-A7 that often (and even when we do, there are lots of chop pots happening) but we get called by loads of Kx, Qx, Jx etc with these crazy BH mo fos. And we still have good FE in this spot, not like anyone has shown any strength.
I'd avoid that 'BH villians are more likely to limp...', just take notes on the individual opponents, not on how your average timed tourney player plays or w/e
Jdsallstar, in the second hand I think we can define the shorty's range a bit. We know that it's possible that he can have AA there, but if I ask you "Which hand is more likely in a limper's range, AsAd or JdTs?" You'd say JT... and there are 16 combinations of JT but only 6 combos of AA... and there are many more hands like JT than there are AA, KK, etc...
The same goes for the UTG limper: He might be limping a monster, but the vast majority of the time he's holding a weaker hand. We can't worry about the few times that we run into a big hand, we have to go on what is most likely.
Chances are that, even if we do get called by the short stack, we're in great shape. We won't always get called, though. Even if we only get this shove through 10% of the time, we're picking up 25% of our stack each time.
So the chances of us getting it in good, plus the amount we steal without a showdown when it gets through (even if that doesn't happen too often) should make this a very profitable shoving spot. We'd need to have specific reads on the villains' limping ranges to do anything else, I think.