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How much is luck a factor in online poker?
Waddell93
Member Posts: 56
So i join sky poker recently after an expensive run of losses on PS. I found myself questioning my online game even though i fealt that for the better part i got my chips in ahead and was just pure unlucky" I did the typical thing and questioned the site i was playing, hence the change!
The first few days on sky poker where interesting. I thought the micro cash tables looked soft and had potential for me to build a roll. However as ever, I lost my initial deposit. I figure ok, lets ask the forums. the advise i got was great 
i read a fantastic artical abotu micro playing and how to extract the max value from each premuim hand!
i read a fantastic artical abotu micro playing and how to extract the max value from each premuim hand! I played this way with no success 
I fealt i was in ahead 80% of the time but always seem to lose! I decided to make a tally showing 'the hands i won/lost vs ahead/behind at all-in stage'
I fealt i was in ahead 80% of the time but always seem to lose! I decided to make a tally showing 'the hands i won/lost vs ahead/behind at all-in stage'Here is the results.
Ahead
won - 12
lost - 9
Behind
won - 1
lost - 2
So i look at this, and see that first off i get my chips in good 95% of the time! However i also see that of that 95% i only win aroung 55-60% of the time!
So how much is luck involved?
I also understand that the above stats do not give an accurate understand of my play, as its only allins however following the advise sky poker forums gave, I should be max betting the goods. most times on micro tables.
Comments
In the short term are results are probably dictated like 90%+ luck, 10% skill
In the long term it's pretty cloes to 100% skill, 0% luck
FWIW, I've been losing LOTS for weeks now and have been pretty consistently getting it in good, it's pretty brutal but there's nothing you can do about it. Remember, the spectrum of luck is WAY bigger than just 'do I win or lose when I go allin' and getting it in bad doesn't mean you made a mistake. If you raise 99, get called by 66 and then see a 369 flop and stack them, that's VERY lucky. Likewise, if you raise 66, get called by 99, see the same flop, get it in and lose, that doesn't mean you played it bad, and when you got it in and lost, that's exactly what you'd expect to happen most of the time, but again you didn't do anything bad, you just got VERY unlucky.
Well thats what i keep telling myself, however, sometimes i cant help but ask you guys! Ive gotta say though Live poker doesnt seem as frequent with the unlucky streaks. I mean i can go play say £1-£1 at casino and yeh there will be a couple of questionable villian calls and suck outs, but by the end of the night im nomally in profit. And its the lack of profit that is really fissing me off online. Now i completely understand way live is different from online ect etc but It just seems a different game
I found an article some while back (posted a link in the Area 51 section of the forum) that showed, with an analysis of game outcomes, that even with three quarter of a million hands on the sheet there was still a 5% probability of not hitting your EV, and the results being affected by normal variance.
Like depreciating an asset on a balance sheet using the reducing balance method, I don't think it ever actually gets to zero, although it will eventually be an insignificant factor in overall results.
There is a massive mathematical conundrum involved in this belief, not least the fact that in mathematics luck does not exist. Every hand and outcome has attached expected probabilities and even in the short term that remains the same although the outcomes cannot be predicted in a compound manner. To suggest that short term outcomes are 90% luck is truly incredible because it suggests that even the very best players will not be able to win with consistency if they are reliant on 90% luck in the short term.
Mostly, the new breed of poker experts rely on mathematics and aggression to make their plays and they tend to know more often than not what position they are in. They avoid 'running bad' to a greater or lesser extent because they are 'not' reliant on luck in either the short or the long term and you should discount the term 'luck' altogether and replace it with probability, then do the math at every point in your plays.