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This hand here i think i need to bet more on the flop and turn. Just out of interest bet sizing on the turn? I should have bet more mayve 75% pot, or 80%. I'm pretty sure i have the best hand,against against their range for sure i need to be betting more on the turn. On the river feel i need to bet here for value i'm getting called by a lot worse. I think its a sigh call on the river i just felt i was ahead all the way. I felt they could have Q junk. Don't know, it's never a bluff, felt they would have played a straight totally different, and is so hard to put them on back door flush. LARSON7 | Small blind | 500.00 | 500.00 | 29517.50 | |
soulie | Big blind | 1000.00 | 1500.00 | 33532.50 | |
Your hole cards |
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steelrod | Fold | ||||
emerson01 | Fold | ||||
baker43 | Fold | ||||
LARSON7 | Raise | 1500.00 | 3000.00 | 28017.50 | |
soulie | Call | 1000.00 | 4000.00 | 32532.50 | |
Flop | |||||
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LARSON7 | Bet | 2000.00 | 6000.00 | 26017.50 | |
soulie | Call | 2000.00 | 8000.00 | 30532.50 | |
Turn | |||||
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LARSON7 | Bet | 4000.00 | 12000.00 | 22017.50 | |
soulie | Call | 4000.00 | 16000.00 | 26532.50 | |
River | |||||
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LARSON7 | Bet | 8000.00 | 24000.00 | 14017.50 | |
soulie | Raise | 16000.00 | 40000.00 | 10532.50 | |
LARSON7 | Call | 8000.00 | 48000.00 | 6017.50 | |
Comments
We don't want to be checking on this particular turn, obviously. Now we want to build the pot so we can stack our opponent when he's holding Kx or weaker Qx hands. We do need to be betting a little bigger than half-pot now, in order to leave just less than a pot-sized bet back. There aren't many draws, but we can still get more value than half-pot from the few AsTs type hands the villain might have.
As played it's tough to value shove the river with more than a pot-sized bet behind. We're going to force the villain to sigh-fold most of the hands we beat. I think we should probably bet more than 8k though. We're very unlikely to be bluffing here but, if we were, we probably wouldn't be betting half-pot. If the villain is going to call us with his KT type hands he'll call 12k just as readily as 8k.
Then we face the raise and we're hating life. Getting 5:1 on the call, so we only have to beat 17% of his range but do we really? He's so unlikely to be bluffing so how many of his value hands do we beat? (EDIT: We also have to think, because this is an MTT and we can't rebuy, whether it's +EV enough to make the spot better than folding and preserving a playable stack. It may be +cEV but not +EV)
I guess we have to ask ourselves whether this villain peels the pre-flop min-raise with hands like Q2, Q3 and up to Q8. If not, then this is a fold. If he can be holding those hands, we have such good pot odds that we probably have to call. I doubt he raises the river with any Kx hands so if the only hand in his range that we beat is QT, we should fold.
I dunno. I don't think we beat enough of the villain's likely range for the min-raise on the river but I doubt I'd find a fold. That said, I think we shoud be betting enough on the turn to shove the river, as yb says. The villain is still going to be holding enough Kx hands for that to be the most profitable line, I think.
Normally i know i exactly where i am, when oppo min raises i'm hating life but sigh called.
With his move it's hard to think my hand is winning. It's pretty marginal.
Opponent had nut flush, they callled the flop with Ace high, back door flush draw. Betting bigger on is definatly the best option, i missed out on so much value. Just in this case i'd be unlucky they got there after making a bad call.